【QL 7084 交流专区】全利资源

密码侦探

老板是真正做生意的,不喜欢把自家股票炒做

secret8701

大家觉得现在QLRM3.47 可以进场吗？？

kk66

八年大大您是否还看到ql的帐目依然有很大的问题存在？

scsiang82

OSK Investment Research
September 9, 2009

Sailing Abroad
In line with QL’s strategy to expand to the region, QL is venturing to Vietnam and Indonesia. The company has restarted its Vietnam project and proposed a JV for a chick breeder farm. It has also ventured into Surabaya and Kalimantan. We expect stronger contribution to come in post-2014, particularly from palm oil activities (POA) as its trees start to mature and bear fruit. Given that earnings from all three divisions are intact, we are maintaining our estimates for FY10 and FY11. Nonetheless, we are applying a 10% premium over our previous PER for QL’s future earnings potential. Hence, we arrive at a new TP of RM3.83 from RM3.68 previously. Maintain Buy.

Too competitive in Vietnam. QL has reconsidered its Vietnam venture after having put it on hold for nearly two years. This time around, the company is proposing a JV with a local Vietnam egg producer for the supply of day-old chicks through a breeder farm. QL will be injecting RM30m to RM40m into the JV over the next two years.

Eyes on Indonesia. QL is also looking for opportunities in Indonesia. It will open its first overseas food processing plant in Surabaya, targeting a capacity of 5000m tonnes per year. QL is currently fulfilling the required procedures for the land to proceed with the construction of the new plant. The company has also invested in land in Kalimantan its POA and management has hinted at better POA contribution from 2014 onwards. As the trees start to mature in 2014, we believe palm oil earnings would come in gradually.

Earnings intact. We believe all three divisions will continue to deliver their respective bottomline numbers. Japan and China have started to replenish surimi stocks as the Japanese have re-entered the surimi market due to depleting stocks. Although egg margins will normalise, we still see growth from this division as its previous acquisitions have started to contribute.

Maintain BUY. We are maintaining QL’s earnings for FY10 and FY11. However, we think the company deserves a better valuation for its resilient business model and future earnings potential of all its three divisions. Furthermore, with the new ventures in Vietnam and Indonesia, we are applying a 10% premium over our previous PER of 12.5x, and derive a new PER of 13.75x. Hence, we also arrive at a higher TP of RM 3.83 (based on the average of 13.75x PER and 2.4x PBV) against RM3.68 previously. We maintain our Buy recommendation.


KEY HIGHLIGHTS

VIETNAM IS BACK!
Egg farm too competitive in Vietnam. QL had previously ventured into Vietnam to set up an egg farm targeting 400,000 eggs per day. This was a greenfield project that would cost approximately RM50m to start. Although egg prices in Vietnam are market-driven and there is huge demand for eggs, the project was put on hold for nearly two years. This was mainly because management was being prudent given the economic volatility in Vietnam. We gather that Vietnam’s egg market is somewhat different than that of Malaysia’s as egg producers there face stiff competition from China’s egg exports. From Figure 1, we can see that China is the largest egg producing country in the world, exporting 4x more eggs than the second largest egg producer. China’s egg production exceeds the demand for eggs. Hence, the over-capacity in the Chinese market has flooded neighbouring countries such as Vietnam.

What’s up with Vietnam? Given the prospects in the otherwise competitive egg market in Vietnam, QL has instead proposed a joint venture (JV) with a local Vietnam egg producer. QL will set up a ‘day-old chick’ breeder farm and supply the chicks to the egg producer for the production of eggs. Egg producers require a constant supply of day-old chicks to nurture into productive layers (Refer Figure 2). As each layer retires after 13-14 months, egg producers would need to replenish their supply of day-old chicks every 23 weeks. Although QL has yet to finalise the details of the JV, we think the company would gain from the JV as it is able to tap the market while not being directly exposed to the competition. QL will be injecting RM30m to RM40m into the JV over the next two years.


INDONESIA: LAND OF OPPORTUNITIES
Finalising for Surabaya. In line with its regional expansion, QL is currently looking for opportunities in Indonesia and will open its first overseas food processing plant in Surabaya, Indonesia. The new surimi processing plant is targeting a first phase production capacity of 5000 tonnes per year, boosting existing production by at least 25%. The construction of the surimi plant will cost about RM25m, which will be internally funded by the company. QL is currently fulfilling the necessary procedures for the land to proceed with the construction of the new plant. We believe this will create more opportunities for QL as:
(i) Potential demand from the locals. With a population of 206m based on 2009 estimates, Indonesia is ~7 times the size of Malaysia, which speaks volumes of the potential demand for surimi. Although the new plant will mainly supply the export market, we believe QL may increase its surimi supply to the Indonesian market as it expands its production capacity later.
(ii) Affordable pricing. Private consumption contributes 62% of GDP and remains the prime driver of Indonesia’s economic growth. The majority of Indonesians spend most of their disposable income on basic consumption, with almost half being spent on food. Coupled with a large population base, we think QL’s products would be in high demand as surimi products are affordable.
(iii) Rich fishing resources. Indonesia is the world's largest archipelago with 13,667 islands, and rich fishing resources with a total catch of 4.1m tonnes based on 2000 figures. This ranked Indonesia as the world’s sixth largest fish catch in the world. As such, this would continue to ensure QL’s fishing supply during the low fishing season in Malaysia. Hence, this will continue to support QL’s MPM earnings during the monsoon season.
(iv) Less competition. We believe QL will benefit from the venture as there is less competition from the local players. Although there are many surimi plants in Surabaya, the existing surimi plants are smaller players which employ obsolete technology for surimi making. Unlike the local players, QL practises the closed concept and operates a hygienic environment, which is a priority to buyers, particularly Japanese buyers.
(v) Geographically good for exports. Surabaya, being one of the main trading ports in East Indonesia, has port facilities of international standard. QL will be able to capitalise on the facilities available since the new venture caters mainly for exports.

Substantial contribution from CPO. Apart QL has also invested in Kalimantan land for its palm oil activities (POA), from which management has hinted of better contribution from 2014 onwards. QL had previously acquired 20,000 hectares of oil palm estate development in Eastern Kalimantan, Indonesia with total planted to date of 13,000 acres. It is estimated that by 2014, it would have planted ~30,000 acres in Indonesian estates. QL has two milling plants and acts as a middle man earning from milling margins, whereby it buys fresh fruit bunches (FFB) from farmers and sells the CPO to local refinery. Therefore, as the trees start to mature in 2014, we believe the palm oil earnings would come in gradually. QL has also allocated capex of approximately RM100m over the next 2 years for a new CPO milling plant in Kalimantan which will take 18 months to build. This plant will facilitate with the milling of FFB harvested from the Kalimantan estates.


HOW ABOUT QL’S DAILY BUSINESS?
Replenishing on surimi. We gather that China and Japan have started to replenish surimi stocks. We believe the Japanese have re-entered the surimi market as stocks deplete. Previously, the demand for surimi was lower as a consequence of overstocking by Japanese buyers when surimi price surged last year. Nonetheless, the lower demand for surimi did not have an adverse impact on QL’s earnings as the company has the flexibility of switching from supplying surimi (fish paste) to manufacturing surimi products such as crabsticks, fishballs and others. We reckon that earnings from this division will continue to grow.

Egg prices normalise. Aside from its MPM business, its ILF business is also flourishing as egg prices remain firm throughout the year due to a shortage of eggs, which has driven prices to near all-time highs, amid cheaper raw material costs. Going forward, we think that egg margins should normalise as egg prices have gradually declined from the previous high of 30.7 sen but we may still see growth from this division as its previous acquisitions, namely Hiap Loong Poultry Farm and Ansan Poultry Farm, have started to contribute to QL’s bottom line. The “Cuti-Cuti Malaysia” campaign and festive seasons in the coming months will support egg and surimi consumption.

POA to gain come 2014. Although earnings from this division were not impressive in the company’s last quarter (owing to lower CPO prices and reduced FFB from poor weather in Sabah), we believe in the earnings potential of Kalimantan as trees begin to mature in 2014.

独孤一刀

最新季度的业绩出炉了～

SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION

30/09/2009

		INDIVIDUAL PERIOD		CUMULATIVE PERIOD
		CURRENT YEAR QUARTER	PRECEDING YEAR CORRESPONDING QUARTER	CURRENT YEAR TO DATE	PRECEDING YEAR CORRESPONDING PERIOD
		30/09/2009	30/09/2008	30/09/2009	30/09/2008
		$$'000	$$'000	$$'000	$$'000
1	Revenue	337,167	391,620	693,508	756,112
2	Profit/(loss) before tax	33,921	30,471	61,248	57,322
3	Profit/(loss) for the period	29,495	27,450	53,011	50,746
4	Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent	26,047	25,189	48,360	46,733
5	Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit)	7.97	7.66	14.79	14.21
6	Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit)	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
		AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER		AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
7	Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$)	1.3600		1.2700

mulan316

很可惜这专区很久没有人讨论了。

这几天QL 股价不停上升，有哪位大大知道发生或即将发生什么事吗？

konster

很可惜这专区很久没有人讨论了。

这几天QL 股价不停上升，有哪位大大知道发生或即将发生什么事吗？
mulan316 发表于 21-6-2010 12:19 PM

    我也好奇，除了股价上升，QL还卖股套现...

tn728202

有人可以證實嗎？
印尼的油棕是不是可以收割了？

mulan316

那天3.92 时以为很高了，卖了几粒，现在起到4.27 好心痛。

没有办法再进了，太贵

huang_su_lang

我的情况不同， 之前有bonus share， 6600 share 平均价RM3.06。
RM4.30时 加买 2K（起太快有点后悔不早买）， 现在平均价到了RM3.36 per share（还安全的水平）

将会长期持有（就像之前长期持有SUPERMX所带来的巨大回酬一样）

管理层蛮会照顾投资者的。。。。。。。

stereo

最近鸡蛋价钱蛮贵，QL应该很好赚了，所以股价就涨了。

mulan316

今天RM 4.30 了，可以再进吗？

长远投资的说

飛聲

如果买个收10年打底不知道怎样？不过现在真的认为贵了一些，曾经最高价接近rm6+，小弟刚学习股票，有什么多多指教。最近还真的起的很厉害，1个月rm0。40

azera

是一支绝对可以长期持有的股。。。但是价钱好像蛮高下了。。

stereo

如果买个收10年打底不知道怎样？不过现在真的认为贵了一些，曾经最高价接近rm6+,不过2004年应该是擒流感惹祸 ...
飛聲 发表于 30-7-2010 09:30 PM

    大大，那是QL发红股，不是大跌啦～！

飛聲

大大，那是QL发红股，不是大跌啦～！
stereo 发表于 31-7-2010 12:16 AM

哦哦，不好意思，原来是这样啊>.<"
我是新手＝＝“
回去编辑先。。。
原来发红股会下回那么厉害的啊。。。
那应不应该进货呢现在＝＝”
一直顾虑着，现在很高呢

mulan316

我是懒惰读annual report 和作功课的人，只是听家人说当年上市有4 粒，后来一直分红股，现在变30 多粒了。

飛聲大大，
发红股不是跌，比如说两粒RM4.50 (2 X 4.50), 送一粒，结果有三粒RM 3.00 (3 X 3.00) , 上涨空间不是更大了？

不好意识，我的解释有点土，还是股票新人，学习中，希望各位大大多多指教

木瓜

娘的, 希望他冲破ＲＭ1０.

马股中少有的优质股

mulan316

RM 4.51 了，高兴一下下，希望和楼上的一样，冲破RM10

clc689

平时静静地 起就
偶还没上车的说