投资的难题, 熊市当前，何时进场 ? (续15楼)

密码侦探

这位兄台有见地
10月人气指数 亮暴镜
900是第1极限
930是第2极限
960是第3极限

密码侦探

"我己忘了如今KLCI几多点，只知那只熊还没走。"

看来是位高手

蚂蚁小弟

根据最近的成交额推算，政府的50亿可以玩最少20天，过了这个月才来看看
嘿嘿

takiz

马股都怪怪的, 还是靠出口导向的经济跌幅还能站到酱? 还是有人在搞鬼 :@ ,看来只有等公司年度报表见真章吧, 到时候牛鬼蛇神都给我"现行"!

有目标的大头

原帖由 Flying_Fox 于 1-11-2008 05:59 PM 发表
股市永远有4种人
1. 进场的人
2. 进场的人，想离场的人
3. 进场的人，想加码的人
4. 未进场的人，

各人心境不一样，我与你一样还未进场，别去看市场，
他会使你心烦气燥。

我己忘了如今KLCI几多点，只知那 ...

大头的第三种的人。。。

hong2166

Dear Friend,

         This is my first post. I can write in English only but i can read mandarin. Sorry if i do not follow the rules here. I understand that everyone is waiting for bottom here. May i give you some data:


as of 29-10-2008:
KLCI Index: 829.41 P/E = 9.6 , Dividend Yield = 5.8 (The Malaysian market is trading at a P/E of 9.6x, which is about 8% lower than its previous low of 10.4x maintained in August 1998)

Straits Times Index  1671.20 P/E=8.2, Dividend Yield = 6.3 (The Singapore market is trading at a P/E ratio of 8.2x, which is about 17% lower than its previous low of 9.9 x registered in October 1990)

*Please note that all Asia markets are either trading at historical low or very near to the historic low. Besides, all dividend yields are almost more than 5% except japan.

This give you an indication that the market earning can help you to earn back your capital in less than 10 years (P/E < 9) and you can expect the dividend is better than FD rate (dividend > 5%).

The market may go down further, but may i suggest you to at least invest a bit where most markets are at historical low, you may not want to miss it.

Try this:
PBB-01 : it is only 8.35 now, and the dividend is like 90 sen, it already give you dividend yield of more than 10%, much better than FD. It still can give you dividend yield if dividend next year is 0.45 only (due to economic slow down). It never loss a single cent in the past 30 years.

GENTING: Its NAV is already >3.00 and it is trading at 4.50 now. The earning is bad due to England and other issue. But NEVER FORGET Singapore new casino and many Malaysian keep visiting Genting every night. haha.

IOICORP = It is 2.75 now. Most bad news are mostly discount. Low CPO, Forex loss. The past year earning is 0.38, which P/E is  7.23x. If its earning is cut by half due to low CPO, it may drop to 0.19 next year, and the P/E is 14x, must lower than 33x registered early of the year.

And also, don't forget there are other many counters which discount by more than half due to crisis. Their earnings may not be good in this 1 -2 years, but their strong management and track records always make me feel good !
ICAP, WCT, MAYBULK, YTLPWR.

I am a fundamentalists and i always like to buy low and hold long term. I miss 1998, which i may earn 30x if i hold Maybank, IOI, Tanjong, DIGI. I hold PBB for 8 years and never regret. I always believe you will never want to sell some excellent shares if you manage to buy at below fair values, just like now !

Flying_Fox

谢谢不错的分析，我选股用基本分析，选时两者都用。

测底是一种愚笨的行为，我等市场横摆，是为选时，那样胜算比较
高。maximize gain and safe.

素知熊市时，低者会更低，什么股也不例外。

像HA-O 在 RM3.40不断回购至price fall to RM3.00

谁也挡不了跌趋，同样的谁也挡不了升趋。
You can't stop the falling market neither you can stop the up trend.

用钱扶市不如用心理战术 -- 增强投资者信心。

[ 本帖最后由 Flying_Fox 于 2-11-2008 10:02 AM 编辑 ]

青青狼

熊市當前，絕不是進場的時機。小弟我目前還苦苦存著子彈，為的等下一次牛市

在選時猶疑不決的朋友可以參考道氏理論。對我來說蠻好用的

勇115

原帖由 WCS 于 1-11-2008 05:47 PM 发表
我也是越等越辛苦。但我想11月中就是我进场的时候了

三思。。再三思。。

hong2166

Dear Friend,

          Thank you very much for your reply. I undestand everyone try to buy lowest when the market reaches bottom. I also wish i can do that. However, as informed by few of experienced investors who experience 1997-1998, the market bottom can only last around a week or maybe less than that.

          I am around 30++, i was studying during 1998. I really wish to know what happen during 1998. The experienced investors told me:

1. Market drop like crazy, drop almost 100 points everyday, especially during August 1998.
2. Everyone try to catch low, but keep losing a lot of money. All of the fundamentals seems useless, good stocks drop like crazy. People start to throw stocks like stocks are piece of rubbish.
3. When market reaches 250++, the P/E is like 10x. No one cares about P/E, dividend yield, they just think the stocks market will drop to 0. There was also one soldier who shoot like mad in Chow Kit during that time too.
4. However, as long as market drop to 250++, the market start to shot back up like crazy ! It went up to 300++ in less than few days, and it rebound back to 302 by end of the month, and subsequent shot back to 586 by december. Please see below:

01-04-98	625.97	-13.00
01-05-98	538.24	-14.02
01-06-98	353	-34.42
31-07-98	402.65	14.07
28-08-98	302.91	-24.77
30-09-98	373.52	23.31
30-10-98	405.33	8.52
30-11-98	501.47	23.72
31-12-98	586.13	16.88

*April to June is like now

5. Please see below for some statistics too:
A statistics for US
*Watching from the sidelines May cost you:

10 years ended December 31, 2007

Period of Investment                   |                  Average Annual Total Return of S&P 500 index
Stayed fully invested                                          5.91%
Missthe the best 10 days                                 1.13%
Missed the best 20 days                                   -2.55%
Missed the best 30 days                                 -5.72%
Missed the best 40 days                                -8.40%


I allocated around 70% of my cash during peak in this year. And i invest slowly as the market went down. My average cost for my biggest holdings:

1. Genting : around 5.40  (start buying in Sept)
2. Resorts : around 2.60  (start buying in August)
3. Maybulk : around 2.45  (start buying last year)
4. IOICORP : around 2.75  (start buying October)
5. PBB : around 3.00 (it was very long time ago, so no points talking)
6. ICAP : around 1.60



I always believe to invest batch by batch. We cannot catch the bottom, so i invest gradually. I will set a fair price for stocks that i interested. Then will buy slowly as it went down. I may not catch bottom, but can help me to average down my average cost. As long as my average cost is below my pre-set fair price, i like to hold further, until it goes up to beyond fair value and even to crazy level. I can enjoy good dividend (especially the market is around 6% dividend yield)

I start to be extremely greedy when market reaches P/E 10x (which is Tuesday last week), i bought GENTING at 3.70, IOI at 2.17 and some other stocks. My average price is still much higher then current closing price but i am fine as long as the average cost is below than my fair value. I try to hold as i own the business, don't care about short term volatility, as long as it is making big profit in the future.

*I always believe, I am enjoying good partnership with big bosses like PBB Big Boss, IOI Big Boss, MAYBULK Big boss when i buy their stocks. I am very happy to put my money with them. I may lose a few thousands when market is bad, but big bosses are losing billion of ringgits. So i believe they will earn back in the future (or maybe even more). They are greedy and smart, so they can help me to earn more money. haha.

*Market may drop further because this crisis is big ! But i try to buy slowly, gradually and batch by batch. I believe smart investors like you all who is preserving a lot of money will earn  a lot in the future, good luck !

*I already lose like 20% of my net worth during this crisis. I am prepared for that, so just hope it will go up back in the next few years time. haha

Flying_Fox

Check back my trading record, I bought Public Finance Berhad at merely RM 0.81(09 Sept 1998)at that time. I better use Chinese input since this is a Chinese Forum.

那时的市场很可怕，我当年是纯技术分析，后来读了KLSE.8K，冷眼的书，加上后来发现技术分析有某些缺点。才离场三年研究基本分析。

Average Cost down 是十分吃力的方法，我也用，但尽可能减低。

Your interest rate gain might not able to cover your unrealized loss. So, I do not value that. In a uptrend, it is a prefect strategy. To me, it is a minimize loss factor. (to cover loss in price)

当我进场price一定不是最低，在横摆我需一些average costing。

[ 本帖最后由 Flying_Fox 于 3-11-2008 07:22 AM 编辑 ]

有目标的大头

原帖由 青青狼 于 2-11-2008 05:31 PM 发表
熊市當前，絕不是進場的時機。小弟我目前還苦苦存著子彈，為的等下一次牛市

在選時猶疑不決的朋友可以參考道氏理論。對我來說蠻好用的

下定决心，但还没到目标价，所以还没进场。。。
当然，大头也正在存著子彈。。。

bababa

klse8k 说，低点后的3个月，若没能破那个低点，就是进场的时机

青青狼

原帖由 bababa 于 2-11-2008 11:23 PM 发表
klse8k 说，低点后的3个月，若没能破那个低点，就是进场的时机

是有突破吧

yilingchai

790点，X 20%=948点 就是牛来了，，