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Elliott Wave Theory

已有 632 次阅读29-10-2012 03:31 PM |个人分类:外汇

The 5 - 3 Wave Patterns

Mr. Elliott showed that a trending market moves in what he calls a 5-3 wave pattern.

The first 5-wave pattern is called impulse waves.

The last 3-wave pattern is called corrective waves.

In this pattern, Waves 1, 3, 5 are motive, meaning they go along with the overall trend, while Waves 2 and 4 are corrective.

Do not confuse Waves 2 and 4 with the ABC corrective pattern (discussed in the next section) though!

Let's first take a look at the 5-wave impulse pattern. It's easier if you see it as a picture:


Wave 1The stock makes its initial move upwards. This is usually caused by a relatively small number of people that all of the sudden (for a variety of reasons, real or imagined) feel that the price of the stock is cheap so it's a perfect time to buy. This causes the price to rise.Wave 2At this point, enough people who were in the original wave consider the stock overvalued and take profits. This causes the stock to go down. However, the stock will not make it to its previous lows before the stock is considered a bargain again.Wave 3This is usually the longest and strongest wave. The stock has caught the attention of the mass public. More people find out about the stock and want to buy it. This causes the stock's price to go higher and higher. This wave usually exceeds the high created at the end of wave 1.Wave 4Traders take profits because the stock is considered expensive again. This wave tends to be weak because there are usually more people that are still bullish on the stock and are waiting to "buy on the dips."Wave 5This is the point that most people get on the stock and is most driven by hysteria. You usually start seeing the CEO of the company on the front page of major magazines as the Person of the Year. Traders and investors start coming up with ridiculous reasons to buy the stock and try to choke you when you disagree with them. This is when the stock becomes the most overpriced. Contrarians start shorting the stock which starts the ABC pattern.

ABC Correction

The 5-wave trends are then corrected and reversed by 3-wave countertrends. Letters are used instead of numbers to track the correction. Check out this example of a smokin' hot corrective 3-wave pattern!

ABC corrective wave pattern

Types of Corrective Wave Patterns
The Zig-Zag FormationZigzag formation

Zig-zag formations are very steep moves in price that goes against the predominant trend. Wave B is typically shortest in length compared to Waves A and C. These zig-zag patterns can happen twice or even thrice in a correction (2 to 3 zig-zag patterns linked together). Like with all waves, each of the waves in zig-zag patterns could be broken up into 5-wave patterns.

The Flat FormationFlat formation

Flat formations are simple sideways corrective waves. In flats, the lengths of the waves are GENERALLY equal in length, with wave B reversing wave A's move and wave C undoing wave B's move. We say generally because wave B can sometimes go beyond the beginning of wave A.

The Triangle FormationTriangle formation

Triangle formations are corrective patterns that are bound by either converging or diverging trend lines. Triangles are made up of 5-waves that move against the trend in a sideways fashion. These triangles can be symmetrical, descending, ascending, or expanding.


3 Cardinal Rules of the Elliott Wave Theory
  • Rule Number 1: Wave 3 can NEVER be the shortest impulse wave
  • Rule Number 2: Wave 2 can NEVER go beyond the start of Wave 1
  • Rule Number 3: Wave 4 can NEVER cross in the same price area as Wave 1


Then, there are the guidelines that help you in correctly labeling waves. Unlike the three cardinal rules, these guidelines can be broken. Here they are:

  1. Conversely, sometimes, Wave 5 does not move beyond the end of wave 3. This is called truncation.
  2. Wave 5, more often than not, goes beyond or "breaks through" the trend line drawn off Wave 3 parallel to a trend line connecting the start of Waves 3 and 5.
  3. Wave 3 tends to be very long, sharp, and extended.
  4. Waves 2 and 4 frequently bounce off Fibonacci retracement levels.

Hypothetical, will-most-probably-be-right scenario:

Let's say you wanted to begin your wave count. You see that price seems to have bottomed out and has began a new move upwards. Using your knowledge of Elliott Wave, you label this move up as Wave 1 and the retracement as Wave 2.

Elliott wave count

In order to find a good entry point, you head back to the School of Pipsology to find out which of the three cardinal rules and guidelines you could apply. Here's what you found out:

  1. Rule Number 2: Wave 2 can NEVER go beyond the start of Wave 1
  2. Waves 2 and 4 frequently bounce off Fibonacci retracement levels
So, using your superior Elliott Waving trading skillz, you decide to pop the Fibonacci tool to see if price is at a Fib level. Holy mama! Price is just chillin' like ice cream fillin' around the 50% level. Hmm, this could be the start of Wave 3, which is a very strong buy signal.

Elliott wave entry

Since you're a smart trader, you also take your stop into consideration.

Cardinal rule number 2 states that Wave 2 can never go beyond the start of Wave 1 so you set your stop below the former lows.

If price retraces more than 100% of Wave 1, then your wave count is wrong.

Let's see what happens next...

Elliott wave 3


Scenario 2:

This time, let's use your knowledge on corrective waves patterns to grab those pips.

Elliott wave flat example

You begin counting the waves on a downtrend and you notice that the ABC corrective waves are moving sideways. Hmm, is this a flat formation in the works? This means that price may just begin a new impulse wave once Wave C ends.

Elliott wave flat entry

Trusting your Elliott Wave skills, you go ahead and sell at market in hopes of catching a new impulse wave.

You place your stop just a couple of pips above the start of Wave 4 just incase your wave count is wrong.

Elliott wave flat exit



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