human 于 11-12-2003 17:25 说 :
不要把PE复杂化， 把它简单看成 PE = PRICE/EPS
何为PE，Price/Earning 所以称为 PE，反之我们更应该看 EP也就是E／P这样才能、充分的看出EPS的quality
TSH的三个QUATER EPS 为 28.81，所以我们假设４个QUATER的EPS为38.5
而现在的TSH PRICE 为2.9
EP也称为ROI（return on investment)
IS EARNINGS YIELD THE SAME AS DIVIDEND YIELD?
PE = Price Earnings Ratio Earnings Yield = EP
PE = Share Price / EPS Earnings Yield = EPS / Share Price
Almost every investor, even a novice, is aware of the most common of all financial ratios: PE, or Price / Earnings. It is simply the current share price divided by the latest earnings per share (EPS). Simplicity becomes a bit more complex as you realize the EPS could be historical (latest financial year), trailing (last sequential four quarters), current (estimate of current full financial year), future (estimate of future years earnings), adjusted (remove one-time extraordinary gains or losses and fully dilute to current number of shares issued and outstanding). Nonetheless, PE is the simplest and most common of all financial ratios, and is seen as a value proxy for a company-- the higher the PE the higher the business is valued and the lower the PE the more of a bargain the current price compared to earnings-- especially useful when comparing peer companies in similar industries.
Earnings Yield is the inverse of the PE ratio, or E / P-- the EPS divided by the share price. While it is related to the PE, it offers more valuable insights into the value of a business for investors. The Earnings Yield states very succintly how much a business is able to return to you, the investor, in terns of net earnings for every dollar you must invest to buy the shares at the current market price.
For example...let抯 compare a recent IPO and an old favorite of our WS8 Portfolio ...
Sinomem EPS = The new share offer increased outstanding shares from 300 million to 400 million, thus effectively diluting historical FY2002 EPS to 2.65 cents.
Sinomem P = Current price on 7 July is S$0.77 per share.
Sinomem Earnings Yield = EPS/P = 2.65 / 77 = 3.4%
People抯 Food EPS = FY2002 net earnings = RMB 823m = ~S$174m / 1133m shares = 15 cents/share
People抯 Food P = Current price on 7 July is around S$0.97 per share.
PFood Earnings Yield = EPS/P = 15 / 97 = 15.5%
So, you can see immediately how useful the Earnings Yield number is. Instantly, this simple inverse of the PE helps you understand your expected investor earnings return from one stock versus another. In this case, investors would only expect a 3% earnings return from Sinomem, but over 15% earnings return from People抯 Food. Of course, your stock analysis process doesn抰 end here-- other obvious considerations would include your educated opinion about each company抯 current and future year earnings growth prospects, the strength of their balance sheets, their track record for achieving high returns on earnings reinvested into the business, and their tendency to return some of each year抯 earnings to shareholders as dividends, among many others.
Warren Buffett uses a concept called 抩wner earnings?nbsp;for determining the economic value of a business according to Robert Hagstrom in his book The Essential Buffett (Wiley, 2001). Buffett calculates owner earnings by taking the company抯 net income plus depreciation, depletion, and amortization, less the amount of capital expenditures and any additional working capital that might be needed. Moving from Earnings Yield to Owner Earnings is, as you can see, moving from undergraduate school to graduate school.
Calculating the current value of a business means, first, estimating the total earnings that will likely occur over the life of the business, and then discounting that total backward to today--what we often call discounted cash flow (DCF). (Keep in mind that, for 抏arnings,?Buffett uses Owner Earnings--net cash flow adjusted for capital expenditure.) To estimate the total future earnings, we would apply all we had learned about the company抯 business characteristics, its financial health, and the quality of managers, using the first 7 screens of our WS8 intelli-vest process. But, now we抮e moving into post-doctorate level studies. For starters, begin to move beyond the ubiquitous PE and think in terms of its inverse, Earnings Yield... it will put you on the track to Buffett-like business value analysis.
The New Buffettology
Author : Buffett, Mary; Clark, David