美银Hartnett：迎接“6月风暴”，美国CPI将“刺破泡沫”

aidj

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华尔街见闻全文

aidj

美银策略师Hartnett发出预警：如果接下来通胀数据超出预期，将直接触发风险资产抛售。历史数据显示，在过去100年中，一旦CPI突破4%，标普500指数在接下来的3个月内平均下跌4%，6个月内平均下跌7%。此外，市场"卖出信号"持续走强，SpaceX等巨型IPO将抽离创纪录流动性，叠加全球央行鹰派转向风险，科技泡沫迎来极端脆弱时刻。

美股在6月正面临一场严峻的压力测试。美国银行策略师Michael Hartnett警告，一系列密集的宏观事件风险和市场流动性的急剧抽离，可能推动全球债券收益率大幅走高，从而刺破当前的科技资产泡沫。

据追风交易台，Hartnett在最新研报中表示，即将公布的美国CPI数据是这场“6月风暴”的核心催化剂。如果最新的通胀数据超出预期，将直接触发风险资产的抛售机制。历史数据显示，当通胀突破关键警戒线时，往往会在随后的数月内引发美国基准股指的深度回调。

与此同时，全球央行的密集决议及表态正主导市场走向。特别是即将由新任美联储主席沃什主导的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议，其政策立场的鹰鸽倾向将决定美股及长端债券收益率的命运，任何超预期的紧缩信号都将对投资者造成重创。

aidj

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets ... -fedwatch-tool.html 分析今年可能加息点。长话短说

**今年（2026）加息概率低，市场主要预期持稳或小幅调整。**

- **当前利率**：美联储目标区间 **3.50%-3.75%**，近期会议（如6月17日）**持稳概率超95%**，几乎无加息预期。
- **全年展望**（CME FedWatch + 期货定价）：年底前**加息概率约5-20%**（25bp），**降息概率更低（<5-15%）**，大部分定价为**维持当前区间**（70-80%+）。部分数据显示年底前加息概率一度升至50%左右，但整体仍偏谨慎。

**总结**：今年加息点不多，**最可能全年持稳**，受通胀和经济数据影响，存在小幅上调风险，但市场未强烈定价多次加息。数据实时变化，建议直接查 CME FedWatch Tool。

aidj

在市场看涨情绪极度亢奋的背景下，美国银行的内部情绪指标已发出强烈的“卖出信号”。叠加即将到来的巨型科技企业IPO对市场流动性的史无前例的抽离，当前的风险资产正处于极度脆弱的敞口之中。

关键通胀数据逼近，美股面临历史性回撤风险
即将于6月10日公布的美国CPI数据是市场面临的首要考验。

过去三个月，该数据环比平均上涨0.6%，过去六个月平均上涨0.4%。如果5月CPI环比增速超过0.4%（目前市场预期为0.5%），意味着美国CPI同比增速将突破4%，并可能在美国中期选举前迈向5%。这一趋势将令风险资产极度不安。

历史数据显示，在过去100年中，一旦CPI突破4%，标普500指数在接下来的3个月内平均下跌4%，6个月内平均下跌7%。


Wall Street eats its forecasts as stocks sell off on fear of AI bubble ahead ...
https://fortune.com/2026/06/08/stocks-ai-bubble-spacex-ipo/

aidj

aidj 发表于 8-6-2026 07:32 PM
在市场看涨情绪极度亢奋的背景下，美国银行的内部情绪指标已发出强烈的“卖出信号”。叠加即将到来的巨型科 ...

Grok: **US CPI Outlook (mid-2026):**

Headline CPI inflation accelerated to **3.8% YoY** in April 2026 (highest since mid-2023), up from 3.3% in March, driven by surging energy prices (+17.9% YoY) amid Middle East tensions, plus shelter and food gains. Core CPI rose to 2.8%.

**Near-term prediction:** Inflation likely peaks above 4% in coming months due to energy pass-through, tariff effects, and sticky services, before moderating. Consensus points to ~3.5-4% average for 2026, trending toward 2.5-3.0% by 2027-2028 as supply adjustments and Fed policy help.

Risks remain tilted upward from geopolitics, tariffs, and fiscal stimulus. The Fed's 2% target stays elusive short-term, supporting cautious rate policy. Overall, sticky but non-explosive inflation persists. (98 words)

aidj

aidj 发表于 8-6-2026 07:37 PM
Grok: **US CPI Outlook (mid-2026):**

Headline CPI inflation accelerated to **3.8% YoY** in April ...

**Yes, higher CPI raises rate hike risks, but not immediately.**

With April 2026 headline CPI at 3.8% YoY (energy-driven) and core at 2.8%, the Fed is on higher-for-longer alert. Markets price ~99% chance of **no change** at the June 17 meeting (current target: 3.50-3.75%).

Prediction markets now show ~50-56% odds of at least one 25bp hike in 2026 if inflation stays sticky above 3-4% (geopolitics, tariffs, services). FOMC minutes note officials are open to "policy firming" if progress toward 2% stalls.

**Bottom line:** No imminent rise, but upside CPI surprises tilt risks toward hikes later this year or 2027 over cuts. Data-dependent path. (92 words)

aidj

**The bond yields in the Gemini screenshot appear somewhat outdated or approximate as of June 8, 2026.**

Bond markets move in real time (especially during trading hours), and the data in the image likely reflects an earlier snapshot. Here's a validation based on recent reliable sources:

### US Treasuries
- **US 2Y**: Image shows **4.12%** → Current/recent: **~4.15%–4.20%** (e.g., around 4.147%–4.20% recently). Close but slightly higher now.
- **US 10Y**: Image shows **4.25%** → Current/recent: **~4.54%–4.57%**. Noticeably higher.
- **US 30Y**: Image shows **4.43%** → Current/recent: **~4.97%–5.00%**. Significantly higher.

### Japan Government Bonds (JGBs)
- **Japan 10Y**: Image shows **0.98%** → Current: **~2.65%–2.72%**. Much higher (yields have risen substantially).
- **Japan 30Y**: Image shows **2.08%** → Current: **~3.89%–3.94%**. Substantially higher.
- **Japan 40Y**: Image shows **2.35%** → Current: **~3.76%–3.78%**. Also much higher.

### Other
- **Germany 10Y Bund**: Image shows **2.32%** → Current: **~3.02%–3.05%**. Higher.
- **UK 10Y Gilt**: Image shows **4.11%** → Current: **~4.88%–4.91%**. Higher.

### Summary
The **direction and relative spreads** (e.g., US curve shape, Japan still low but no longer near-zero, US > UK > Germany > Japan) are broadly consistent with the recent environment, but **most absolute levels are lower** in the Gemini data than current market quotes. This is common with AI chat responses that pull from cached or slightly lagged data.

**Recommendation**: For financial decisions, always cross-check with live sources like Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics, FRED (St. Louis Fed), or your broker's platform, as noted in the screenshot. Yields fluctuate daily/hourly based on economic data, policy expectations, and global events.

@使用者 G 简直是乱来的

ilovet

使用者

aidj 发表于 8-6-2026 07:57 PM
**The bond yields in the Gemini screenshot appear somewhat outdated or approximate as of June 8, 202 ...

问 g 这样的国际债务，还不如好好的做好自己的职业更好。