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冰岛,瑞士和爱尔兰等面临的问题将对世界经济造成深远影响.
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在发达国家中,冰岛作为世界第一个货币由于率先大量印刷钞票而走向大跌.
在高通货膨胀的环境下,冰岛kronur也在大跌,对那里人民形成双重贬值压力.
在短短一年时间内,在所有国家同时加大印钞量的情况下,冰岛由于印的更猖狂,结果对美元汇率一年下跌50%.
而且又在9月一个月里面下滑了查超过10%,用崩溃来形容并不过分.
因为当年马来西亚金融风暴时期,马币也不过是在几个月时间里面从2.5到5,最后还固定在3.8.
用这个标准来衡量,冰岛已经处于金融风暴中,但是比马来西亚更糟糕的是,这风暴远还没有终结.
目前: 1.00 USD
=
105.165 ISK
而swiss franc的走势就非常坚挺.尽管世界人还普遍由于传统观念,认为swiss franc是避险货币,不过当前由于UBS和Credit Suisse的问题,主要是UBS的问题, swiss franc的避险价值已经很让人质疑.
以UBS规模之大,swiss goverment规模之小,swiss government根本就没有能力在危机时候大量印刷货币拯救UBS.
简单来说,swiss政府不能模仿欧盟国家那样拯救fortis和dexia.
也不能好象英国那样国有化northern rock.
如果swiss政府强行在UBS发生危机情况下拯救UBS,其结果就好象Iceland那样,货币大量贬值.
爱尔兰作为欧元国家中第一个陷入经济衰退的国家,情况非常不妙.
参考两家爱尔兰最大银行股价走势:
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE RE
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AAIB
爱尔兰人之前坚信这个这么美妙的国家的房地产长线是一定升值的.结果他们的房贷占GDP比例是欧元国家中最高的.
现在灾难爆炸了.
上面的东西给我们启示是:
1)大量印刷钞票是一定会造成钞票购买力下降的.
2)本来稳定的国家,只有在危机没有发生的时候才是稳定的,只有潮退后,我们才知道谁在裸泳.现在潮还没有退完.
3)举债投资房地产本来就是场愚蠢决定.普通人,连一年后股市要怎么走都肯定不了,20年后房价如何更加猜不来.
但是一般人有个偏见,就是错误把长线当稳赚.
长线从来不代表稳赚. |
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发表于 30-9-2008 11:08 PM
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回复 1# hoollly 的帖子
原来欧洲的情况也这么糟糕。
请问你爱尔兰的房贷占GDP比例是多少？
有大马的数字吗？
谢谢分享。 |
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楼主 |
发表于 30-9-2008 11:21 PM
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原帖由 tan81 于 30-9-2008 11:08 PM 发表 
原来欧洲的情况也这么糟糕。
请问你爱尔兰的房贷占GDP比例是多少？
有大马的数字吗？
谢谢分享。
马来西亚要去bnm网站看. |
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发表于 1-10-2008 12:02 AM
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原帖由 hoollly 于 30-9-2008 10:58 PM 发表 
长线从来不代表稳赚
这真是至理名言呀！！ |
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发表于 1-10-2008 01:58 AM
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发表于 3-10-2008 08:02 PM
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有看到新闻，冰岛和爱尔兰都收购了它们国内的银行。
冰島以6億歐元收購冰島第三大銀行Glitnir的75%股權
爱尔兰将对高达4,000亿欧元的银行债务提供偿还担保，(包括所有的证券、短期借款和个人存款。)
这个数字相当于爱尔兰国内生产总值(GDP)的两倍。
我还是第一次看到这么大的担保计划，竟然是爱尔兰GDP的两倍。。。。。。
但是那里的人民还是不断去爱尔兰银行挤提。 |
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楼主 |
发表于 7-10-2008 10:13 PM
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欧元更脆弱.
目前欧盟里面对于货币供应不公平合理已经很多抱怨.
其中ireland和greece,也据说包括最近德国承诺担保所有所有银行贷款.
不过话虽如此.政府真的拥有足够的货币力量担保么? |
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发表于 7-10-2008 10:48 PM
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发表于 7-10-2008 11:22 PM
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发表于 7-10-2008 11:32 PM
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发表于 8-10-2008 06:50 AM
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发表于 8-10-2008 08:27 AM
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发表于 8-10-2008 02:00 PM
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楼主 |
发表于 8-10-2008 09:08 PM
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发表于 9-10-2008 12:59 AM
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冰岛就快破产了。维京海岛们会不会重操旧业??
新闻说下个是西班牙,不懂有没有这回事。 |
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发表于 9-10-2008 03:02 AM
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发表于 9-10-2008 08:22 AM
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原帖由 siokae0422 于 9-10-2008 03:02 AM 发表 
欧洲国家一个开始接一个了，可怕
下來就是亞洲國家 。 |
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楼主 |
发表于 9-10-2008 10:36 PM
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这新闻,我还是擦了擦眼,出去外面走了两圈再回来看过,而且refresh了两次.
如果是真的,iceland大条了.
他的货币一天跌一倍,厉害过东南亚金融风暴时候.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ne ... rw&refer=europe
Iceland's Krona Currency Trading Halts as Kaupthing Taken Over
By Bo Nielsen
Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Trading in the Icelandic krona came to a halt after the government seized control of Kaupthing Bank hf, the nation's biggest lender, as the financial crisis deepens.
There haven't been any so-called krona spot trades today, or transactions in which currency must be exchanged immediately, according to Stockholm-based Nordea Bank AB and TD Securities Ltd. in London. The last spot trade was at 340 krona per euro, Nordea said. Regulators earlier this week took over Iceland's second- and third-largest lenders, Glitnir Bank hf and Landsbanki Islands hf, which acted as krona clearing houses.
``Effectively the krona can't be traded at the moment because there are no more banks to clear the trade,'' said Mick Ankjaer, a foreign-exchange dealer in Copenhagen at Nordea, Scandinavia's biggest lender.
The bid/ask spread for the krona against the euro, or the price at which traders are willing to buy or sell, was 225 per euro to 400 per euro as of 11:52 a.m. in Reykjavik, according to Antje Praefcke, a currency analyst in Frankfurt at Commerzbank AG, Germany's second-largest lender.
The krona plummeted to 350 per euro this week in trading between banks outside of Iceland, Praefcke said. Icelandic banks may still be trading with each other, she said.
``Foreign banks have cut credit lines with Icelandic banks so they can't settle trades,'' Praefcke said.
The Reykjavik-based central bank, Sedlabanki, yesterday abandoned a peg to the euro after just a day when it became unable to defend the rate of 131 krona per euro. Fitch Ratings yesterday downgraded Iceland's foreign and local-currency debt ratings to BBB- and A-, respectively.
No Confidence
``Nobody wants to hold the currency unless they have to,'' said Beat Siegenthaler, the London-based chief strategist for emerging markets at TD Securities Ltd. ``Something has to be done to restore a minimum level of confidence in the currency.''
Iceland will start talks with Russia on Oct. 14 to secure a loan of as much as 4 billion euros ($5.48 billion), Prime Minister Geir Haarde said yesterday. The government hasn't asked the International Monetary Fund for a standby loan or an economic program, he said.
Moody's Investors Service yesterday lowered the government's credit rating three steps to A1.
To contact the reporter on this story: Bo Nielsen in Copenhagen at bnielsen4@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: October 9, 2008 07:54 EDT |
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发表于 9-10-2008 10:40 PM
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冰岛只是个迷你国家，可是却欠下巨债，牵连其他国家。 |
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发表于 9-10-2008 11:02 PM
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回复 18# hoollly 的帖子
Iceland suspends stock trading, creates new bank
Thursday October 9, 10:18 am ET
By Jane Wardell, AP Business Writer
Iceland suspends stock exchange trading, takes control of third bank as crisis escalates |
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