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发表于 4-6-2008 09:43 AM
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更新: June 3, 2008 17:39
撤除頂價進口限制
洋灰股昂首挺高
報導:顏曉淇
(吉隆坡3日訊)洋灰頂價及進口限制撤除,洋灰股價在利好撐腰下,無懼今日大市疲軟,昂首挺高。
繼撤除鋼鐵頂價后,政府昨日再宣佈,全面開放國內洋灰領域,撤除頂價及進口限制。
市場分析,洋灰頂價撤除后,預計國內廠商將上調售價,以轉嫁高企的生產成本,尤其是過去12個月以來,熱煤成本翻倍。
不過,興業研究分析報告說,本地洋灰生產商不會即刻大幅調高售價。
“本地廠商售價將以目前國際水平價格、運輸費及進口稅總和作為定價依據,即每噸價格調漲幅度為55令吉。”
或掀削價戰
在進口限制放寬下,預料洋灰業者為捍衛市佔率,及激勵已放緩的建築和產業的市場需求,廠商調漲幅度料為每噸28令吉或13.4%,至237令吉。
興業研究預計,拉法基馬洋灰(LMCEMNT,3794,主板工業)和楊忠禮洋灰(YTLCMT,8738,主板工業)的2008至2010財年淨利,料將增加15%到23.2%。
該報告將拉法基馬洋灰合理價,從2.61令吉調至3.09令吉,維持“落后大市”(Underperform)投資評級。
同時,上調楊忠禮洋灰投資評級至“符合大市”(Market Perform),合理價從原來的4.27令吉,調整到5.20令吉。
另外,興業研究提醒投資者潛在風險,指第9大馬計劃工程的展延,將影響市場對洋灰的需求。
此外,進口洋灰的湧進市場,或將引發削價戰。
受頂價所限,國內洋灰每噸售價為219令吉,比較區域公開市場的224令吉或70美元,兩者相差3%。
該研究認為,受建築及產業發展放緩影響,洋灰領域前景看淡,遂維持洋灰領域“中立”投資評級。
相比之下,反看好緊貼國際市場的鋼鐵領域,指需求量遠超過供應。
股項 | 業務概述 | 短期催化劑 | 長期催化劑 | 6月3日閉市價
(令吉) | 波動
(仙) | 成交量
(股) | 拉法基馬洋灰 | 國內洋灰生產商,灰渣產能為每年790萬噸。 | 料將受惠于產業發展蓬勃的新加坡。 | - | 4.54 | +20 | 251萬9500 | 楊忠禮洋灰 | 國內洋灰生產商,灰渣產能為每年760萬噸。 | 料將受惠于產業發展蓬勃的新加坡。 | 將新併購的中國洋灰公司轉虧為盈。 | 4.80 | +10 | 60萬6200 | 資料來源:興業研究、相關公司 |
http://www.chinapress.com.my/con ... ss&art=0604bs02.txt
Wednesday June 4, 2008
Upward revision for cement stocks
By LAALITHA HUNT
PETALING JAYA: Shares in cement makers Lafarge Malayan Cement Bhd and Gopeng Bhd rallied yesterday following the announcement that the Government is lifting the ceiling price on cement effective tomorrow.
Lafarge jumped 20 sen to RM4.54 while Gopeng rose 13.5 sen to RM1.01 to finish among the day's biggest gainers.
Analysts expect cement counters to be re-rated upwards on an anticipated increase in earnings following the liberalisation of cement price.
M&A Securities head of research Wee Kim Hong said the news bode well for cement manufacturers as profit margins would improve significantly.
“Companies which are operating below capacity would also have the incentive to increase production due to better selling prices, which would in turn improve their revenue,” Wee said.
However, he cautioned that these companies would still be affected by high production costs such as for coal.
OSK Investment Bank Bhd research head Kenny Yee was confident of an upward rating for cement players but added that “we cannot be sure if price liberalisation translates into major earnings improvements.''
Meanwhile, MIMB Investment Bank Bhd head of research Pong Teng Siew said although there would an upward re-rating of cement stocks, it might not be on a major scale as that for steel stocks following the liberalisation of steel price.
“Cement as a building material does not enjoy export demand like steel as many countries lack facilities such as silos at ports and terminals to store and transport cement,” Pong said.
He added that there would be a “slight increase'' in local construction costs due to the rise in cement price, but this was not as substantial as the cost of land price for property players.
An industry source said that based on feedback from cement manufacturers, cement price was expected to rise 10% to 20%, which would definitely affect property developers.
“For our future projects, we will transfer our higher building costs to customers, but this would depend on the level of demand in the property market,” he said, adding that it would be easier to transfer rising building costs to customers if a property was a high-end one or was in a good location.
“If there was a softening in demand, we may have to price our products competitively and absorb the rising costs,” he added.
Master Builders Association of Malaysia president Patrick Wong said lifting the ceiling price on cement would ease the shortage in cement supply but added that there was a need to clarify why import duty was fixed at 10%.
“Cement could only be imported regionally due to its short shelf life and under the Asean Free Trade Area, any goods imported within Asean is charged a flat import duty of 5%,'' he said.
Under the new structure, cement importers only have to pay a flat 10% import duty for ordinary Portland cement and hydraulic cement, which currently attract duty of 50% and 25% respectively.
Wong also questioned why only cement importers from Sabah and Sarawak were to be exempted from having to obtain import licences.
http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/s ... 448459&sec=business
[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 4-6-2008 09:45 AM 编辑 ] |
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