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【NOTION 0083 交流专区】诺申集团

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 楼主| 发表于 15-3-2008 08:38 AM | 显示全部楼层
其实我也觉得奇怪,HDD 是 low profit-margin 的行业,
赚幅的压缩应该会顺着 supply chain 往上传递才对。
可是,Notion 的 profit margin 却又超过 20%,怎么办到的?

我想到的其中一个原因,是 notion 还有其它产品。
我认为,目前 HDD 虽然占其营业额 50%,但应该只占盈利较少的比例。

其管理层曾有透露说,(忘了是在哪一个 quarterly report 中讲的)
目前 camera component 的 profit margin 比起 HDD 要好得多。
所以我猜测,camera 部分虽然只占公司营业额的 30%,但可能占公司盈利超过 50%.

2008 年主要成长动力也是来自 Camera 零件。

[ 本帖最后由 invest_klse 于 15-3-2008 09:02 AM 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 15-3-2008 08:43 AM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 chengyk 于 15-3-2008 08:23 AM 发表
Maxtor 应该占 Harddisk 市场很大的比率。请问 Notion 有 supply 给 Maxtor 吗?


公司的报告中没有讲到 Maxtor。

但它有间接的 supply 给 Seagate。(通过一间叫 SPI Technology Pte Ltd 的公司
数目多少就不知道了。
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 楼主| 发表于 15-3-2008 08:58 AM | 显示全部楼层
对了。。。

Notion 的 profit margin 这么高,可能会给它带来一个隐忧。
高赚幅是会吸引多人想进入这个行业,从而使竞争者增加。(几年前的手套业就是个例子)

关于 High Precesion Components 这个行业,我有一些疑问。
比如说,entry barrier 高吗?
技术方面容易掌握吗?
Notion 有所谓的“护城河”吗?

有谁比较熟悉这一行的,可以发表一下吗?
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 楼主| 发表于 15-3-2008 09:03 AM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 15-3-2008 09:54 AM | 显示全部楼层

回复 18# invest_klse 的帖子

是的。看错了。不是9年的保证,而是9年的生产经验。
http://chinese3.cari.com.my/myfo ... p;extra=&page=3
51楼。
关于电子业的订单和走势。

你在19楼的看法很正确,我认同。
那么,当务之急,就是24楼的问题。需要解答的,就是它的销量里,什么产品占了多少%。 还好它是在KL,容易查询。
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 楼主| 发表于 15-3-2008 10:15 AM | 显示全部楼层
我刚刚看过了 DUFU 的 IPO Prospectus。(只是大略的看过)
得到了以下的资讯:

世界上四大 HDD 生产商为
1. Seagate Technology,
2. Western Digital,
3. Hitachi Global storage,
4. Maxtor。

其中,Seagate 在 2005 年收购了 Maxtor。


根据 DUFU 的资料,它是 Seagate 和 Western Digital 的 supplier。
Segate (Singapor + China)的生意占了 DUFU 营业额的近 50%。


根据 Notion 的资料,Notion 是 Western Digital 和 Hitachi Gloval storage 的 supplier。
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发表于 15-3-2008 10:27 AM | 显示全部楼层
The competition between the HDD and flash memory has begun with 0.85-inch HDD and flash memory.
. Currently, the largest capacity of 0.85-inch HDD is 4GB and its price is about US $60, while the price of 4GB flash memory is between US $50 (10k/unit) and US $70 (10k/unit) according to the quotation of http://www.dramexchange.com/ on Nov 2 2006. Although the HDD has the advantage in the transmission rate, it is not as good as the flash memory in price, size, anti-shake and power consumption. So it can be concluded that the future of 0.85-inch HDD is gloomy.

Forecast of Average Price per GB of NAND Flash Memory and 1.8-inch HDD, 2001-2010


It is forecasted that per GB price of 1.8-inch HDD will be US $0.85 by 2010. Apparently, the 1.8-inch HDD will keep its boom until 2010.

After Seagate's acquisition for Maxtor, there are just 6 main HDD manufacturers left in the world, so the competition is not as rampant as it used to be. And all the manufacturers are moving forward in their advantageous field. Seagate shows great power in the desktop field, and ranks first of the world in DVR as well as the HDD for enterprises. Toshiba mainly focuses on 1.8-inch HDD with a market share exceeding 75%, Apple IPOD is its main client. Besides, Toshiba shares more than 80% of In-car HDD market. HGST takes the laptop as the main market, and it is absolutely advantageous with the high performance-price ratio. As for WDC, in spite of its performance turning better, 70% of its products are still the desktop HDD, which makes it have to struggle hard to compete with Seagate. Fujitsu mainly specializes in laptop market and enterprise-level market. With its server shipment topping three of the world, Fujitsu¡¯s enterprise-level HDD business is promising while it has to fight with HGST in laptop market.

[ 本帖最后由 tan81 于 15-3-2008 10:28 AM 编辑 ]
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发表于 15-3-2008 10:29 AM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 15-3-2008 10:31 AM | 显示全部楼层
Western Digital 的主要业务在Desktop的HDD。 以上的研究报告是2007年的。
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发表于 15-3-2008 10:33 AM | 显示全部楼层
The technological resources and know-how required for modern drive development and production mean that as of 2007, over 98% of the world's HDDs are manufactured by just a handful of large firms: Seagate (which now owns Maxtor), Western Digital, Samsung, and Hitachi (which owns the former disk manufacturing division of IBM). Fujitsu continues to make mobile- and server-class disks but exited the desktop-class market in 2001. Toshiba is a major manufacturer of 2.5-inch and 1.8-inch notebook disks. ExcelStor is a small HDD manufacturer.

Dozens of former HDD manufacturers have gone out of business, merged, or closed their HDD divisions; as capacities and demand for products increased, profits became hard to find, and the market underwent significant consolidation in the late 1980s and late 1990s. The first notable casualty of the business in the PC era was Computer Memories Inc. or CMI; after an incident with faulty 20 MB AT disks in 1985,[34] CMI's reputation never recovered, and they exited the HDD business in 1987. Another notable failure was MiniScribe, who went bankrupt in 1990 after it was found that they had engaged in accounting fraud and inflated sales numbers for several years. Many other smaller companies (like Kalok, Microscience, LaPine, Areal, Priam and PrairieTek) also did not survive the shakeout, and had disappeared by 1993; Micropolis was able to hold on until 1997, and JTS, a relative latecomer to the scene, lasted only a few years and was gone by 1999, after attempting to manufacture HDDs in India. Their claim to fame was creating a new 3" form factor drive for use in laptops. Quantum and Integral also invested in the 3" form factor; but eventually gave up as this form factor failed to catch on.[citation needed] Rodime was also an important manufacturer during the 1980s, but stopped making disks in the early 1990s amid the shakeout and now concentrates on technology licensing; they hold a number of patents related to 3.5-inch form factor HDDs.

[ 本帖最后由 tan81 于 15-3-2008 10:35 AM 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 15-3-2008 10:35 AM | 显示全部楼层
我在 DUFU 的 IPO prospectus 读到以下这样的论调。tan81 兄可以给点意见吗?

由于世界四大 HDD 生产商占据了超过 70% 的市场,supplier 们并没有太多的客户选择,必须从这几个顾客上争取生意,因而可能出现很大的竞争。但是,由于这些 MNC 一般上都不会随便换 supplier 的,因此现有的 supplier 占有较大的优势。除非,这些 MNC 打算增加 supplier 的数量,或打算终止现有的 supplier 合约,new-comers 的机会是很少的。

以下是我的看法。

如果以上的这个论调是合理的话,那 Notion 和 DUFU 算是有个“护城河”吧。
不过,如果外人真的难以进来抢生意,它们也应该很难去从现有的竞争者身上抢得更大的市占率。
因此,HDD 零件市场的成长潜能,就只能靠整个 HDD 市场的成长了。
那么,如果公司向要取得更好得的成长,就不能单靠 HDD,而是必须进军其它领域,使产品多元化。
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发表于 15-3-2008 10:44 AM | 显示全部楼层

回复 35# invest_klse 的帖子

我的看法是,要看Dufu和Notion的定位。 这个要见过管理层,才比较容易了解。
通过报告,根本看不到他们详细的销量比率。
HDD应该还算是精细的电子产品。基于品质的考量,MNC不随意更换Suppliers,是由道理的。而且,生产线上的技术支持,不是新Supplier 可以处理的来的。
但,这并不可以形成“护城河”因为他们没有议价的能力。
除非他们研发的HDD,具有专利权。
和手套一样,经过一轮血战后,只能依赖市场的增长来成长。所以,电子业的周期,也许是业绩指标的关键。

那么,如果公司向要取得更好得的成长,就不能单靠 HDD,而是必须进军其它领域,使产品多元化。
这个是每个科技股都想做的事情。可是可不可以做好或有没有选对,就是疑问和风险了。

没有回答很多问题,因为我也不确定。许多问题,应该从管理层来了解。

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发表于 15-3-2008 11:09 AM | 显示全部楼层
我买的HDD是全都是SAMSUNG 的
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发表于 15-3-2008 11:30 AM | 显示全部楼层

回复 12# 8years 的帖子

那个是因为你不了解自己的“投资”或“投机”。

很多人以为自己掌握很多资讯,然后就认为自己“充分”了解了,结果最后就是被自己掌握中的那么多资讯害死。

我说上面的话,你可以不赞同,不过我会祝福你死得不明不白,死得快乐些。
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发表于 15-3-2008 12:04 PM | 显示全部楼层

回复 26# invest_klse 的帖子

我对Notion没有研究,只是吹水而已。。。

我想我们应该先看看公司的前景。如果说Notion的客户是Hard disk 生产商,相机生产商和其他电器生产商,大家认为这些客户的前景如何?如果我说她们的竞争激烈和利润率低,我想大家应该会同意吧?那Notion作为她们的供应商,前景会很好吗?

再说世界的HDD市场已经被3大生产商占据,Notion是她们的供应商,pricing power更是非常有限。记忆体的价钱越来越便宜,Notion处于价值链的底端的底端,情况不利。。。

吹水而已,希望大家继续研究,说不定我是错的,Notion会是千里马。。。
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发表于 15-3-2008 12:21 PM | 显示全部楼层
DUFU的新闻。

14-03-2008: Dufu Tech’s sterling final results

Dufu Technology Corp (RM0.625) recently reported sterling final results that were much stronger than expected, making the already attractively priced stock even cheaper.

Net profit for FY ended December 2007 surged 61.3% to RM12.7 million, or 14.1 sen per share, 11% above our earlier estimates, and well above its IPO forecast of RM10.8 million. Equally encouraging was an increase in operating profit margins from 16.7% to 19.7% — the highest in three years, despite the ringgit’s sharp appreciation.

Dufu produces precision components for hard disk drive (HDD) and non-HDD products. These strong results — against a backdrop of the US dollar’s sharp depreciation — attest to the strength of the HDD industry, as well as Dufu’s internal cost controls and product diversification measures.



For FY07, Dufu’s revenue rose 20.6% to RM109.2 million. Volume growth was actually much higher, if not for the currency factor, as most of Dufu’s sales are denominated in USD. Against the USD, the ringgit had appreciated from RM3.78 to RM3.51 throughout 2006, and from RM3.51 to RM3.30 throughout 2007.

Despite the ringgit’s appreciation, which has hurt all exporters in general, Dufu managed to chalk up stronger margins, due to increasing economies of scale, cost control measures and a shift towards higher margin products.

Overall operating profit margins improved from 16.7% to 19.7% — the highest in three years, while pre-tax margins improved from 9.6% to 12%. As a result, pre-tax profit increased by 49.8% to RM13.1 million. Net profit surged 61.3% to RM12.7 million or 14.1 sen per share, with a trailing historical P/E of just 4.9 times.

During the year, the company started initial production of titanium spacers for Hitachi Global Storage — the third largest global HDD player and a new customer for Dufu, ramped up production for Seagate Technology and increased its non-HDD products, especially industrial sensors.

HDD components accounted for 76% of total sales, followed by industrial sensors with 13%, computers and electronics with 7%, telecoms with 1% and others with 3%.

As at December 2007, Dufu’s net debt stood at RM 9.5 million, down from RM12.4 million in September 2007 due to strong cash flows in the final quarter. Gearing ratio is a modest 13.6%. NTA per share stood at 77.5 sen per share.

We maintain our buy recommendation for Dufu, whose shares are very attractively priced on a forward P/E as well as NTA basis.

We are particularly encouraged by the increase in operating profit margins — for the second year running (after the fall from 23.3% in 2004 to 16.5% in 2005), despite the currency factor and external challenges.

The company is witnessing broad-based sales growth from all major customers, particularly Seagate Technology, as well as Western Digital and new customer, Hitachi Global Storage Systems.

We are raising our FY08 forecast by 3.7%. We expect pre-tax profit to rise by 18.3% to RM15.5 million, while higher taxes should see a smaller 10.2% rise in net profit to RM14 million or 15.5 sen per share. In FY09, we expect net profit to rise 13% to RM15.8 million or 17.5 sen per share.

At 62.5 sen Dufu’s shares are trading at very attractive forward P/E of just four times and 3.6 times FY08-09 earnings. Its shares are also trading 20% below their NTA of 77.5 sen, which is unjustified for a 20-year-old profitable company with secured multinational relationships. We expect NTA per share to rise to 92 sen by end-2008 and RM1.09 by end-2008.

With new machines to be added and a recent expansion in production space at its existing headquarters, there is ample room for additional growth in coming years. Operational since April 2007, the plant extension has doubled available floor space from 60,000 sq ft to 120,000 sq ft. Dufu currently has a total of 170 CNC and stamping machines.

Concerns over the US economy and appreciating ringgit will no doubt affect sentiment for export-oriented players. However, demand for HDD products remains robust for now, as acknowledged by the recent results of Western Digital, Seagate as well as Dufu and Notion VTec.

Demand for HDD products is being driven by consumer electronics products and demand for storage. We believe HDD demand will remain relatively strong given the slew of technological advancements, innovation and new products that is rapidly taking place.

Consumer electronics products are also relatively affordable compared with big-ticket items like homes and cars, which will bear the brunt of a US slowdown.

In the past, HDD demand was mainly driven by the desktop computer replacement cycle which tended to be cyclical. Today, the industry is no longer cyclical, with sustainable, long-term demand created by a wide variety of products and applications — as well as the need for storage.

Applications for HDDs have expanded beyond traditional desktop computers to notebooks, digital video recorders, digital music players, mobile phones, personal digital assistants, digital cameras, video game consoles and car navigation systems, among others.

The quest for bigger storage has led to the introduction of 1 TB (terabyte or 1,000 gigabytes) hard disk drives by Hitachi and Seagate in 2007, as well as perpendicular magnetic recording (PMR) technology.

Note: This report is brought to you by Asia Analytica Sdn Bhd, a licensed investment adviser. Please exercise your own judgment or seek professional advice for your specific investment needs. We are not responsible for your investment decisions. Our shareholders, directors and employees may have positions in any of the stocks mentioned.
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 楼主| 发表于 15-3-2008 12:40 PM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 tan81 于 15-3-2008 10:44 AM 发表
...
那么,如果公司向要取得更好得的成长,就不能单靠 HDD,而是必须进军其它领域,使产品多元化。
这个是每个科技股都想做的事情。可是可不可以做好或有没有选对,就是疑问和风险了。
...


到目前为止,我觉得 notion 做得不错。
以下是过去三年它的产品销售比例。(% of Revenue)
HDDCamera Others
2005 65%15% 20 %
2006 57% 28% 15%
2007 49% 31% 20%

我个人觉得,从今年开始,Camera 零件的对 notion 的重要性已经超过 HDD 了。

这让我觉得,notion 除了有 R&D 外,还有一个不错的销售(marketing)团队。
只有两者的合作,才能够根据市场需求研发产品,并为公司提高销售额、带来赚益。
当然,这几年的 Camera 零件营业额的增长,是有侥幸的成分。
因为过去这几年正是 digital camera 市场的爆发期,它的成长率是高于 HDD 的。

但是,我认为 notion 的销售队伍还是有点料的。
因为,除了 Nikon 这个大客户之外,
他们还替 notion 建立了其它顾客群,
其中包括了 Canon,Sony,Panasonic 和 JVC。

对了,去年 notion 有生产一些手机零件(约占 4% 营业额)。
但 2008-Q1 的报告中,手零件只占 1%,看来是进军失败了。
无论如何,对于它勇于尝试开发新市场的态度,我是很喜欢的。

接下来,就要看它还能进军什么市场了。
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发表于 15-3-2008 12:46 PM | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 invest_klse 于 15-3-2008 08:10 AM 发表
可以说说为什么你认为电子业在萧条呢?

说说我为什么会开始注意 Notion 吧。
那是一年前,从报纸上看到有关它的介绍。
当时只知道它是做 HDD 零件的,是 Western Digiter 的 supplyer。
不久后,刚好我到 PC fair 去买一些东西。
那里的人山人海、水泄不通的情形,让我有很深的感受,并开始觉得 Notion 有前景。

我的亲身体验是,
我的家人、身边的朋友们都在不断的 upgrade 电脑,Hard-disk 容量一直越换越大。
还有,就是最近很多朋友都开始买 notebook。。。在在的都显示电脑业、hard-disk 的前亮丽。

另外我想到的就是 internet 的发展,hosting 公司都需要很多 hard-disk 的吧。。。
另一个潜在的发展潜能就是 harddisk video camera。
我觉得,当 digital camera 的成长到顶以后,就是 video camera 开始的时候了。



我在想IPOD,Wii或Blackberry是很受消费者欢迎,那谁最得益?我想应该是品牌拥有者Apple, 任天堂和RIM (Blackberry是IM的产品)吧。那她们的供应商呢?我觉得好处不大 (因为处于价值链的底端), 供应商们。。。
1. 利润率低,没有pricing power;
2. 供应商之间的竞争激烈;
3. 须随着科技进步而花大钱更换机器,负担depreciation。

不看好这类公司。。。


任天堂Wii 二月蝉连 美国游戏机销售冠军 2008/03/14 18:09:48
●南洋商报

(东京14日讯)日本任天堂Wii游戏机二月份美国市场销售再度领先其它对手,新力公司(Sony Corp.)的PlayStation 3和微软的Xbox 360则分居二、三名。

市调研究机构NPD Group Inc.周四发布消息表示,二月份Wii美国零售销售量为43万2千台。PlayStation 3和Xbox 360二月销售量分别是28万零800台和25万4千600台。

Lazard Capital Markets分析员史柏原本周发布报告指出,Wii和Xbox 360供给增加,促使游戏机市场销售提高。

Wedbush Morgan证券白齐德表示,电玩游戏机市场显然没有感受到衰退的迹象。他表示,原本市场预期这个泡沫将破灭,但看来电玩业似乎还是持续扩张。
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发表于 15-3-2008 12:46 PM | 显示全部楼层
这个贴我看到你们很专业佩服你们
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发表于 15-3-2008 01:01 PM | 显示全部楼层

回复 34# JeanGrey 的帖子

不是不赞同,只是要身为散户,用的就是尽可能的力量去选择买卖股票,当然很多情况下是还没有公司的情况就买进卖出了,懒惰也是一个问题,大概如果操作更大的资金时就会更认真的去了解公司和生意吧,哈哈。

我也非常了解你要表达的“认为充分了解”

[ 本帖最后由 8years 于 15-3-2008 01:15 PM 编辑 ]
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