【行业讨论】如何分析棕油这个行业?

bryon

chengyk

生意兄，下次合并后可不可以通知声 !!! 我还以为我的贴被封了，找了老半天才发现和 tan81 兄的贴合并了 !!!

Mr.Business

谈经阁:“失控”的原棕油风潮！ 2008/03/04 18:03:05
●刘慧欣

昨日，大马原棕油期货再度突破每吨4千令吉大关，让我不禁回想起约两年前的原棕油期货也只不过是每吨千多令吉的水平。

谁会想到在短短两年的时间内，原棕油价格犹如坐上喷射机般，直冲而上。原油价格飙涨、生物燃油的发展趋势，使原棕油的需求逐渐增加。

在全球鼓吹生物燃油的趋势，原棕油不再只是食品原料或是产品原料。它的增值功用，使原棕油的身份跟着“水涨船高”。

难怪会有交易员认为，原棕油是新的“黄金”。因为只要原油和黄豆油价格继续上涨，将加强市场对原棕油的兴趣，并持续进行投资。

或许我们可能会想，那油棕园主不是赚翻了！但是，曾听一名小园主说，油棕价格高涨，也无形中带来一些困扰，那就是常常会有人潜入油棕园里偷油棕。

由于油棕园都有围栏作为防护，且那些小偷没有适当的工具，因此他们只能偷采比较矮小油棕树的果实。

这个情形让我咋舌，这种偷法可以赚得了多少钱啊？！

此外，甚至有市场人士预测，原棕油价格有望飙涨至每吨高达4千500令吉。

市场持续看好原棕油的前景，使原棕油价格在短短的几年，翻倍地攀高，不禁让人对这个现象感到担忧，猜想会不会是一场泡沫的形成？

http://www.nanyang.com/index.php?ch=7&pg=12&ac=820377

Mr.Business

中国或抑制植物油价格飙涨 棕油期货价格重挫5.8％ 2008/03/04 18:03:05
●南洋商报

（吉隆坡4日讯）由于投资者担忧中国可能抑制植物油价格的飙涨而纷纷套现，也拖累大马原棕油期货价格今早在创下新高后复跌5.8％。

原棕油5月份期货价格，今日一度激增3.6％至每吨4千486令吉的新高，过后又回跌250令吉至4千零80令吉。

套现活动仅短暂

分析员指出：“大马原棕油期货的套现活动只是暂时的，对冲基金管理公司尚在市场内，伺机从原棕油领域获得更多收益。”

摩根士丹利一名分析员富亚多则说：“大马原棕油期货的活动虽受到对冲基金的左右，但是逐渐增长的需求和全球植物油供应紧缩，已使其基本面维持稳健。”

一名交易商说：“原棕油期货回软的主要原因，是大连黄豆油期货的套现活动所致，投资者已从黄豆油期货中获益不少，因此投资者想要在下一波涨潮前套现。”

据中国交易商指出，由于植物油价格创新高可能会加速通胀率，使中国投资者担忧涨幅将会推出一些措施来抑制植物油的价格，因此纷纷套现。

http://www.nanyang.com/index.php?ch=7&pg=12&ac=820373

yy_218

一月份RM651++ per tonnage..
二月份RM700++ per tonange
昨天油棕果卖现金RM750 per tonnage。。

以前都是介于RM200++----RM300++左右。。。。

Mr.Business

新闻。

Thursday March 6, 2008

Better dividend payout due to CPO prices

By KATHY FONG

PETALING JAYA: Thanks to spurting crude palm oil (CPO) prices, plantation companies are now more generous in paying dividends but earnings growth aside, the higher payouts do not increase their appeal as dividend stocks given the sharp rise in their share prices, analysts said.

A random check on plantation companies’ dividend yield showed that most of the dividends paid were in the range of 1% to 2%, which are lower than fixed deposit rates in commercial banks.  

Asiatic Development Bhd and Tradewinds Plantation Bhd have doubled their dividend per share (DPS) to 14 sen and six sen respectively for the financial year ended Dec 31, 2007 (FY07).  

Kim Loong Resources Bhd has also jumped onto the bandwagon, declaring a special dividend of 10 sen for the third quarter ended Oct 31, 2007. This raised the company's total DPS so far to 13 sen from three sen in the previous corresponding period.  

The hefty profits have strengthened oil palm planters' balance sheets as many are now sitting on huge piles of cash that are growing in tandem with rising CPO price.  

IJM Plantations Bhd has improved to a net cash position from a net debt position previously while Asiatic has a cash pile of RM290.8mil as at Dec 31, 2007.  

IJM Plantations' cash reserves expanded 63% to RM87.7mil as at Dec 31, 2007 from RM53.8mil in March last year on a sharp profit jump. Its earnings per share more than doubled to 17 sen for the financial year ended Dec 31, 2007 (FY07), from 6.59 sen in FY06.

Analysts said plantation companies were usually conservative in terms of paying dividend to keep their cash hoard for acreage expansion to boost future earnings growth.  

Furthermore, the cyclical nature of the commodity business has prompted planters to always “save for a rainy day'' when CPO price enters a downcycle.  

During the severe downturn in 2000/01, CPO price was hovering at RM600 to RM800 per tonne.

Analysts, however, said plantation companies had in the past year or so loosened their purse strings to pay higher dividend in view of strong CPO price.

OSK Equity Research analyst Alvin Tai expects plantation companies to at least maintain the quantum of dividend declared in the previous financial year.  

“But it is hard to predict for 2009. The outlook then may not be as bullish as now,” he said.  

Obviously, the CPO price trend plays a key role in determining plantation companies' dividend payments.  

For that reason, very few plantation groups have committed themselves to a dividend policy.  

An analyst said this was why plantation companies had declared special dividends, which to shareholders would be a windfall, although this might not be permanent.  

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/s ... 83&sec=business

Mr.Business

新闻。

Palm oil may fall 20pc in 3 months: Goldman
       
Published: 2008/03/05

PALM oil futures in Malaysia, the global benchmark, may fall between 15 per cent and 20 per cent in the next three months on lower demand and rising supplies, Goldman Sachs Group Inc said.

“While we remain positive on long-term fundamentals, in the near-term we believed that current record crude palm oil prices are unsustainable,” Patrick Tiah, an analyst at Goldman Sachs in Singapore, said in a report yesterday.

Palm oil for May delivery, which touched a record RM4,486 a tonne on Tuesday, fell 3.5 per cent, or RM145, to RM3,954 at the mid-day break yesterday.

Palm oil is used in cooking and alternative fuels. - Bloomberg

http://www.btimes.com.my/Current ... 0305204219/Article/

bonuslinklite1

留个脚印，学习中。。。

陳光發

(回主题的答)确实的作一次就可以了

tan81

值得引用和拜访的帖子：

http://chinese3.cari.com.my/myfo ... &extra=page%3D1

titotito

受益多多了

Mr.Business

新闻。

Monday June 2, 2008
High CPO prices make planters opt for forward sales
By HANIM ADNAN

MOST oil palm plantation companies in Malaysia have successfully locked in crude palm oil (CPO) prices at above RM3,000 per tonne under their forward sales policy this year.

Many players are diligently adopting either a two-month or three-month forward policy while the rest prefer to sell based on the spot prices, currently hovering between RM3,500 and RM3,700 per tonne.

Analysts contacted by StarBiz said that given such strong CPO prices, some planters had sold forward as much as 50% of their total production this year.

Plantation companies are showing good profits in their recent quarterly results, clearly driven by higher CPO average selling prices (ASP) and better production. Year-to-date, the average CPO spot price is about RM3,489 per tonne (2007: RM2,530.50), borrowing the strength of crude oil which surpassed US$130 per barrel recently.

Analysts are generally positive that earnings of most plantation companies will continue to be proxies to the rising CPO prices.

On the back of this rosy picture, higher fertiliser costs and fuel consumption are also putting pressure on oil palm planters' cost of production. This is ranging from at least RM500-RM730 per tonne for efficient players to about RM1,300 per tonne for less efficient and smaller players.

However, amidst this bullishness, a CPO trader said: “I expect CPO price to ease to RM3,200 in two weeks. The bubble in palm oil prices has reached its maximum. It is likely to burst and go down to RM2,500-RM2,800 per tonne in the second half of this year.”

Asiatic Development Bhd, a unit of Genting Bhd, has no forward sales policy and enjoys the full benefit of the CPO price upswing as it sells at spot prices.

Aseambankers analyst Ong Chee Ting said Asiatic stood to record an even better performance in the coming quarters.

The group achieved a higher ASP for CPO at RM3,403 per tonne in the latest first-quarter results for this financial year (FY) ending Dec 31, up 77% from RM1,925 per tonne in the first quarter of last year.

Aseambankers has raised its 2008 assumption for the ASP for for Asiatic to RM3,100 per tonne from RM2,500 previously.

Ong said: “We have also revised Asiatic's net profit higher by 25.7% in 2008 but down by 4.2% in 2009.”

IJM Plantations Bhd also has no fixed policy on forward selling.

The general guideline allows the group to sell forward only about 50% of its annual CPO production and not more than 12 months ahead.

For the fourth quarter ended March 31, the CPO price realised was RM3,126 per tonne compared with RM2,672 per tonne in the corresponding quarter last year.

“The increase in spread suggests that the company tried to lock in more sales at above RM3,000 per tonne,” OSK Research said in its latest note.

For the full year, IJM Plantations secured a CPO price of RM2,544 per tonne from RM1,511 last year.

Plantation giant IOI Corp Bhd, in the third quarter of its FY ending June 30, realised an ASP for CPO at RM2,705 per tonne.

OSK Research plantation analyst Alvin Tai said: “We believe IOI will report a stronger fourth quarter as the third quarter does not reflect the record CPO price in March due to its forward sale.

“We estimate that IOI had realised RM3,050 per tonne against the Malaysian Palm Oil Board average for Peninsular Malaysia at RM3,472 in March.” The brokerage forecast RM2.2bil plantation earnings before tax for the full year against RM1.3bil achieved so far.

Sime Darby Bhd, meanwhile, booked an ASP for CPO at RM3,101 per tonne for the current financial year ending June 30. Its latest third-quarter average CPO selling price was RM2,744.

Aseambankers, in its recent report, said Sime Darby sold forward about 1½ months of its production at over RM3,000 per tonne.

Citigroup also said that Sime Darby's cost of production was about RM1,100 per tonne in 2007 while the more efficient IOI Corp's was about RM730 per tonne.

If Sime can bring its costs down to be on a par with IOI's, Citigroup estimates that Sime's net profit could increase by some RM800mil.

Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd has locked in an ASP for CPO at RM2,750 per tonne in the first half year for financial year ending Sept 30 against RM1,800 in the same period of 2007.

Aseambankers said KLK sold 50% to 60% of its projected production under a two-month forward policy and should have secured a good price at about RM3,300 per tonne in recent months.

The brokerage said: “We have raised our assumption for the ASP of CPO for KLK at RM2,975 in FY08; RM2,550 in FY09 and RM2,450 per tonne in FY10.”

Tradewinds Plantation Bhd has locked in 18% of its total 2008 production of 1.3 million tonnes at an average price of RM3,300.

Analysts expect even better results in the subsequent quarters, given its recent strong results in the first quarter, which was seasonally its weakest.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/s ... 73&sec=business

Mr.Business

新闻。

Tuesday August 12, 2008
Call for cut in CPO windfall tax
By HANIM ADNAN

PETALING JAYA: In view of falling crude palm oil (CPO) prices, planters are asking for a higher threshold price that is used to calculate windfall tax on oil palm companies.

“The CPO threshold price of RM2,000 per tonne under the new windfall tax imposed on oil palm plantation companies should be revised to RM2,500-RM2,700 per tonne, given sharp correction in CPO prices, currently below RM2,700 per tonne,” said Malaysian Estate Owners’ Association (MEOA) president Boon Weng Siew.

He said: “It is unfair for planters, especially those small players with highly immature estates, to pay (windfall taxes) based on notional or hyphothetical profits when their operational costs have escalated by three-fold.”

Under the Windfall Profit Levy Act 1998 that came into effect July 1, oil palm planters have to pay taxes on the difference between the higher selling price of crude palm oil (CPO) and the threshold price of RM2,000 per tonne.

Boon said: “The RM2,000 threshold price was based on planters’ cost of production (COP) in 1998, which was RM1,000 to RM1,200 per tonne.

“To date, the average COP among local oil palm planters has soared by RM1,200 to RM1,500 per tonne as a result of higher prices of crude oil and fertilizers.”

He added that some small planters with low yields at less than 20 tonnes of fresh fruit bunches (FFB) per ha per year could not afford to pay the tax at the current threshold CPO price of RM2,000. In fact, those with palm trees less than six years old should also be exempted from paying the windfall tax.

According to industry observers, highly efficient planters like IOI Corp Bhd, United Plantations Bhd and Sime Darby with CPO yields of about 25 tonnes per ha per year have lower COP of about RM1,000 to RM1,200 per tonne.Year-to-date, the average CPO price is RM2,700 to RM2,800 per tonne.

Asked whether the imposition of windfall tax was fair to planters, KPMG Tax Services Sdn Bhd executive director Nicholas Crist said: “A characteristic of an acceptable tax is often said to be the ability to pay. On this basis, there would be some justifications for a windfall tax.

However, against this, entities affected by such a tax may feel unduly discriminated against and could argue windfall taxes dampen their entrepreneurial spirit.”

He believes that the fall in the CPO price would not have an impact on the structure of the windfall tax, which is now imposed on FFB unlike the cooking oil cess imposed on CPO and crude palm kernel oil. “However, the lower the CPO price, the lower the windfall tax payable. If the price falls below RM2,000, no windfall tax is payable,” Crist added.

Under the new windfall tax structure, oil palm producers who own holdings of not less than 40.46ha are subject to a windfall profit levy calculated based on 3% of monthly total production of FFB in tonnes multiplied by the monthly average national CPO price in excess of RM2,000 per tonne. The rate is 1.5% for producers in Sabah and Sarawak.

The benchmark third month CPO futures for October closed RM108 lower at RM2,671 per tonne yesterday.

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/s ... 39&sec=business

chengyk

有没有人行内人可以帮忙一下，以以下的 refinery 厂的价值是多少? 怎样计算?

Plantation Land	Capacity (MT'000)
Sandakan, Sabah	1,200
Pasir Gudang, Johor	300
Pasir Gudang, Johor	1,000
Rotterdam, the Netherlands	700
Total	3,200

[ 本帖最后由 chengyk 于 23-2-2009 08:58 PM 编辑 ]

cct2049

听说非洲，新几内亚正在不断发展油棕业
业主 -- 马国前大园主

lcefish85

最近油棕价格飙升， 各位大大还看好油棕业吗?{:2_73:}

rizer

油棕价有飙升吗？

kftham

回复 56# lcefish85


我还是长期看好油棕业.

男子汽水蓋

我看好CPO的价格会持续走强,到明年的第一季.之后便会有所调整.

mypromise

在马来西亚，目前棕油种植地每公顷土地平均每年可出产原棕油3.8公吨，可是IOI集团每公顷土地每年可出产原棕油6公吨，超过一般水平大约50%，这就是我们认真工作并付出很大代價和牺牲所取得的成果。

这话说得非常对，也代表了公司管理层的素质。刚刚翻了翻棕油业的production rate，有很多间在2010年也达不到“每公顷土地平均每年可出产原棕油3.8公吨”的目标