【PBBANK-O1 个人专区】分享大家的投资组合!

sakindo

一般上海指会跟着道指（跟屁虫 ）礼拜一的表现非常难看（自己下 30点 ）很多分析员说是大家观望海指成分股业绩报告出炉，都说不出所以然   

其实是fund manager 在卖票用来subscribe capitaland 的 right issue，但是capital land 选择的时间很差， 好选不选碰到美股大叉叉， 看来主力会推动的很辛苦

sakindo

没办法loh , 看看人流量，想找人交流意见都没有，连炒美股的napste-美国梦都在马来西亚股票区混

臥龍先生

原帖由 Gnoit 于 11-2-2009 10:22 AM 发表

谢谢lz 和臥龍先生 的讲解， 很久没看到臥龍先生的发表了，近来有什么好介绍吗？SGX 区都很冷淡。。。。为什么其他人那么喜欢klse 呢？ SGX不是更好吗？

最近便宜的好股不少.   只是有些公司的業績蠻難看的.   我想現在應該可以鎖定目標,  定時定量的買進.  等  3 到  5 年后的大丰收.

臥龍先生

原帖由 Gnoit 于 11-2-2009 10:22 AM 发表

谢谢lz 和臥龍先生 的讲解， 很久没看到臥龍先生的发表了，近来有什么好介绍吗？SGX 区都很冷淡。。。。为什么其他人那么喜欢klse 呢？ SGX不是更好吗？

以前有問過朋友, 他說新加坡股市太悶了, 沒什麼大發展, 所以不想買新加坡股票

Gnoit

原帖由 臥龍先生 于 11-2-2009 10:59 AM 发表




最近便宜的好股不少.   只是有些公司的業績蠻難看的.   我想現在應該可以鎖定目標,  定時定量的買進.  等  3 到  5 年后的大丰收.  

我也是打算收长期的，不知道臥龍先生推荐什么股呢？　我今年中会开始收Ｇｅｎｔ　Ｉｎｔ　２０到３０　ｌｏｔｓ．希望到赌场开场时辉开２－３番咯。　

臥龍先生

原帖由 Gnoit 于 11-2-2009 11:58 AM 发表


我也是打算收长期的，不知道臥龍先生推荐什么股呢？　我今年中会开始收Ｇｅｎｔ　Ｉｎｔ　２０到３０　ｌｏｔｓ．希望到赌场开场时辉开２－３番咯。　

Genting International ? 個人覺得有點危險的股,  負債太高.  我現在都在看藍筹股了,  可攻可守. .不過手上還有不少"便宜"的股 (股價掉很多 ).

推荐就不敢,  只是覺得不錯, 好像 capitaland 就很不錯呀,  而且現在很便宜了. 股息也不錯,  公司現金又多.

[ 本帖最后由 臥龍先生 于 11-2-2009 01:33 PM 编辑 ]

臥龍先生

No surprise with weak results. CapitaLand (CapLand) announced a weak set of 4Q08 results, with revenue declining by 46.9% YoY to S$703.7m. This was largely expected with the weak economic outlook and slow property sales in 4Q08. Operating profit fell 53.1% to S$263.7m and the decline was mitigated by gains from the divestment of Somerset Orchard and Link REIT units. No provisions were made on the landbank that CapLand acquired during the property boom but a fair value loss of S$58.9m was recognized for its properties in Australia, Japan and UK. 4Q08 PATMI plunged 88.4% to S$78m, in line with our expectations.

Announcement of rights issue…finally. CapLand announced a 1-for-2 rights issue at an issue price of S$1.30 per rights share to raise gross proceeds of S$1.84b. According to CapLand, this rights issue is a preemptive move to enhance its capacity to seize opportunities that arise. After the rights issue, CapLand's balance sheet will be further strengthened, with a cash hoard of S$6b and improved net gearing ratio of 0.28x. The rights shares will also be entitled to CapLand's FY08 dividend of 7 Scents.

Cash call from CMT. In a separate announcement, CapitaMall Trust announced that it will be doing a rights issue and CapLand has agreed to subscribe for its proportionate rights units and for excess units up to a maximum limit of 60% of the total rights units. Consideration to be paid by CapLand could range from S$365.8m (assume CapLand subscribe for its proportionate rights units) to S$739.2m (60% of rights units) and postrights net gearing would increase from 0.28x to between 0.3x and 0.33x.

Upgrade to BUY. Using CapLand's end-FY08 book value, our FY09 RNAV is now pegged at S$3.85 per share. In view of the strengthening of CapLand's balance sheet after the rights issue, we are lowering our discount for development profits and investment properties, from the previous 40% to now 30%. We continue to peg the valuation of CapLand's listed investment base at their market values, without discount. As such, our fair value of CapLand has been lowered from S$3.27 to S$2.99 (or ex-rights fair value of S$2.42). We are now upgrading CapLand from HOLD to BUY as the stock has already fallen 34% since our downgrade on 5 Jan 2009 and the overhang from the Rights issue is now lifted.

PBBANK-O1

SINGTEL也值得留意!

GENT INTL我也会买来收!
不过个人觉得需要蛮长的时间才会看到成绩!
如果只是为了等开张就套利就有点冒险!
可以买一点来收, 等他开张后第一个业绩再看如何!
负债高, 是它的其中一个风险!
富贵险中求!

hy_2009

原帖由 Gnoit 于 17-2-2009 11:25 AM 发表
哇， 今天大跌了， 是不是怕美国政府不救GM ?
lz  很久没发表了， 潜水了？

什么是GM??

PBBANK-O1

美股没有你想象中好赚!

http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/02/12/business/yen.php?page=1

Japan sees U.S. repeating its mistakes on bank plan

By Hiroko Tabuchi
Published: February 13, 2009

TOKYO: For all the money the United States and Europe have committed to rescuing banks so far, the veterans of Japan's own banking crisis have two words of advice: more, faster.

The Japanese have been here before. They endured a decade of economic stagnation in the 1990s as their banks labored under crippling debt, and successive governments wasted trillions of yen on half measures to restore them.

Only in 2003 did the government finally take the actions that led to a recovery: forcing major banks to submit to merciless audits and declare their bad debts; spending two trillion yen, or $22.23 billion at today's rates; effectively nationalizing a major bank at the expense of shareholders; and allowing weaker banks to fail.

By then, the Nikkei 225 stock index had dropped by almost three-quarters from its heights. Real estate prices would ultimately fall for 15 consecutive years. Public debt had grown to exceed gross domestic product. And deflation stalked the land.

Some students of the Japanese debacle say they see the United States heading for a similar train wreck.

"I thought America had studied Japan's failures," said Hirofumi Gomi, a top official at the Japanese Financial Services Agency during the crisis. "Why is it making the same mistakes?"

Some U.S. critics of the plan announced Tuesday by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said it lacked details. Experts on Japan found it timid - especially given the size of the banking crisis the administration faces.

"I think they know how big it is, but they don't want to say how big it is," said John Makin, an economist at the American Enterprise Institute, referring to administration officials. "It's so big they can't acknowledge it."

He added: "The lesson from Japan in the 1990s was that they should have stepped up and nationalized the banks."

Instead, the Japanese first tried many of the same remedies that the administration of President George W. Bush tried and the administration of President Barack Obama is trying - low interest rates, fiscal stimulus and ineffective cash infusions, among other things. The Japanese even tried to tap private capital to buy some of the bad assets from banks, as Geithner has proposed.

One reason Japan was so timid was fear of public outrage, which grew with each act of the bailout.

But the Japanese experience shows that resolving the mess will require a firm government hand and will be extremely expensive. Delay will only raise the price tag.

A further lesson is that the bank rescue will determine the fate of the wider economy. While Obama has prioritized his stimulus plan, no stimulus is likely to succeed unless the banking sector is repaired. "I think Obama made a tactical mistake," Makin said.

The Japanese crisis of the 1990s and early 2000s had roots similar to the American crisis: a real estate bubble that collapsed, leaving banks holding trillions of yen in loans that were nearly worthless.

Initially, Japan's leaders underestimated how badly the real estate collapse would hurt banks. As in the United States, a policy of easy money had fueled stock and real estate speculation as well as reckless lending by banks.

Many in Japan thought low interest rates and economic stimulus measures would help banks recover on their own. But in late 1997, a string of bank failures set off a crippling credit crisis.

Prodded into action, the government injected ¥1.8 trillion, or nearly $20 billion at current exchange rates, into Japan's main banks. But the injections - too small, poorly planned, and based on little understanding of the extent of the banking sector's woes - failed to stem the growing crisis.

Japanese voters, angry at what they saw to be a waste of taxpayer money, punished Japan's ruling coalition at the polls that year, prompting Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto to resign. After that, fear of public outrage slowed the government's hand.

Indeed, fearing more bad news, leaders did not force major banks to come clean on the amount of their bad debt. Banks kept loans to "zombie" companies on their balance sheets, instead of fully disclosing them and writing them off.

Instead, Japan experimented with a series of funds, in part privately financed, to relieve banks of their bad assets - a mechanism similar to what Geithner has proposed in his bailout plan.

Those funds brought about limited results at best, said Takeo Hoshi, an economics professor at the University of California at San Diego. For one thing, the funds were too small to have an effect. The depository for bad loans had no orderly way to sell them off.

And the purchases that did take place failed to stem banks' capital shortages, because the bad assets were priced at steep discounts.

Japanese taxpayers are estimated to have recouped less than half of what it cost the government to bail out the banks. From 1992 to 2005, Japanese banks wrote off about ¥96 trillion, or about 19 percent of the annual gross domestic product.

So far, the Obama administration's plan avoids the hardest decisions, like nationalizing banks, wiping out shareholders or allowing banks to collapse under the weight of their own bad debts. In the end, Japan had to do all those things.

"The U.S. is repeating many of the mistakes that Japan made, and that's surprising," said Makin, the economist, "because American policy makers were all too ready to supply advice to Japan."

Economists say the blunders meant Japan's financial system did not start to recover until late 2002, six years after the crisis broke. That year, the government of the reformist leader Junichiro Koizumi ordered a tough audit of the top banks. The move, called the Takenaka Plan after Heizo Takenaka, who led the government's financial reforms, finally brought the full extent of bad loans to light.

Initially, banks publicly lashed out at Takenaka. "The government can't order bank management to do this and that," Yoshifumi Nishikawa, president of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, said in October 2002. "It's absolutely absurd."

But Takenaka stood firm. His rallying cry, he said in an interview Wednesday, was, "Don't cover up. Don't distort principles. Follow the rules."

"I told the banks clearly, 'I am in a position to supervise you,"' Takenaka said. "I told them I am not open to negotiation."

It took another three years to get most of the bad loans off the banks' books.

Resona Bank, which was found to have insufficient capital, was effectively nationalized. But Takenaka's toughness restored faith in the banks.

"That was a turning point in the banking crisis," said Gomi, formerly of the Japanese Financial Services Agency, who worked with Takenaka on the audits. "After that, markets finally trusted the banks again."

By then, other factors had fallen into place that aided economic recovery, including a boom in exports to the United States and China.

But the United States probably will not be able to count on a growing demand for its products as the global economy worsens.

"The way things are going right now," said Hoshi, the economics professor, "the U.S. taxpayers' burden will keep going up and up. "

PBBANK-O1

7400过后就迈向6600!

Gnoit

原帖由 鐵士代諾 于 18-2-2009 03:06 PM 发表
在下玩恆生指數牛熊證多....

哇！ 那么你一定很强。 那么你的看法， STI 和 DJIA　 的低点会是什么呢？
我只是新手， 所以想集合大家的意见作参考。

鐵士代諾 ， 你一定是统梦迷。 我也是， 统梦 II 出的好慢。。。。

Gnoit

楼上的，没人能知道会跌到几点的， 所以我觉得最好是今年分散进场吧， 倒是选什么股才是重点。

有什么好股介绍一下吗？

tanhy

美股又插水，海啸第2轮现踪为何楼上的看好Capitaland?听说小新的楼市今年可能跌20%
有没有算过，最坏的情况下，Capitalnd的合理价是多少？

PBBANK-O1

原帖由 Gnoit 于 17-2-2009 11:25 AM 发表
哇， 今天大跌了， 是不是怕美国政府不救GM ?
lz  很久没发表了， 潜水了？

哈哈! 不好意思!
最近比较忙!

DOW昨晚跌了297 Points to end at 7552.

之前说过了, 建议STI在1560 - 1600进场买进优质股(长期投资的)!
应该(也希望)会在两个星期内达到!
因为我们很难预测到最低点, 所以就算不是买到最低点也没关系!
最重要的是买进好公司!

等大部分的公司财务报告出了先才考虑进场吧!
就是三月头, 也就是两个星期后!

我认为DOW在两个月内有可能跌到6600左右!
纯属个人意见!
你们自己要深思熟虑是否进场!  

[ 本帖最后由 PBBANK-O1 于 18-2-2009 10:18 AM 编辑 ]

鐵士代諾

6.6k 咁悲觀﹖
閣下做左 long put﹖

鐵士代諾

在下玩恆生指數牛熊證多....

鐵士代諾

HSI trading range 12k~15k....

今日先被人左一巴右一巴....

鐵士代諾

Capitaland 甚麼事跌咁多﹖

PBBANK-O1

原帖由 鐵士代諾 于 19-2-2009 09:25 AM 发表
Capitaland 甚麼事跌咁多﹖

今天是Ex-Rights到期了! 昨天CLOSED 2.68, 就是说开市价是2.22.
所以才跌1CENT(现在2.21).
2.05或以下可以考虑一下!

DOW应该会先跌到7400(1WEEK - 2MTHS).
可能6600有点太悲观, 拭目以待!

[ 本帖最后由 PBBANK-O1 于 19-2-2009 09:46 AM 编辑 ]