【SPTOTO 1562 交流专区】（前名 BJTOTO）

slutodomo

FROM ECM LIBRA BerjayaSportsToto-BUY
http://mystockfolio.blogspot.com/2010/03/from-ecm-libra-berjayasportstoto-buy.html

Positive start to Supreme Toto 6/58 GAMING
• 6/58 average revenue per draw at RM800k
Berjaya Sports Toto’s (BST) new lotto game, Supreme Toto 6/58 (6/58) recorded average revenue per draw of approximately RM800k since it was launched three draws ago on 20 Mar 2010 with a maiden jackpot of RM10.9m (Figure 1). This was within expectations as Mega Toto 6/52 (6/52) and Super Toto 6/49 (6/49) recorded similar revenue per draw when their jackpot was approximately RM10m (Figure 2 & Figure 3).
• Average lotto revenue per draw more than 30% higher
Since 6/58 was launched, BST recorded average lotto revenue per draw of RM1.5m (Figure 4). The incremental average lotto revenue per draw was approximately RM500k (6/58 average revenue per draw of RM800k less discontinued 6/49 average revenue per draw of RM300k) or some 30% higher. Lotto revenue per draw will trend higher as the last total jackpot offered was only RM18m when the total minimum jackpot is RM13.9m (Figure 5). This is especially so when the jackpots snowball to levels way higher than the minimum.
• Non-lotto revenue will also benefit
Lotto revenue comprised only 7% and 10% of FY08 and FY09 gross NFO revenue and grew RM132.4m y-o-y but was outpaced by non-lotto revenue which grew RM321.9m y-o-y or two and a half times more (Figure 6). Increased visits to outlets driven by large jackpots also
resulted in higher non-lotto sales. With larger jackpots going forward due to the high 6/58 minimum jackpot of RM8.9m, we foresee non-lotto revenue growth as well. With the competing Magnum 4D Jackpot being struck on Sunday, this will only help BST’s cause (Figure 7).

• Maintain Buy and RM4.91 TP
As only three draws have passed, we leave our earnings estimates unchanged for now. Our RM4.91 TP is premised on end-FY11F DCF utilising 7.9% WACC and 1.5% TGR. We forecast that investors will also receive 27 sen single tier DPS (4QFY10F: 4 sen single tier, FY11F: 23
sen single tier) between now and end-FY11F translating into 17% upside potential. With 681 outlets (Magnum: 485, Da Ma Cai: 343), BST is the single largest NFO operator in Malaysia and is well poised to secure the sports betting license.

my988

大家别骂我哦！我还是希望Btoto再跌一点。那我就可以囤积它了。
小小叶 发表于 24-3-2010 08:52 AM

    我的收票价是RM4.20以下。。。

小小叶

回复 1482# my988


    你收了多少票？平均价是多少？我的平均价是RM4.5。应该快回本了。

my988

你收了多少票？平均价是多少？我的平均价是RM4.5。应该快回本了。
小小叶 发表于 29-3-2010 12:04 PM [/quote]


    RM4.20以下收，然后RM5.00抛售。。。

dreamladies

做莫多多没有派股息??

slutodomo

我的分享集30.03.2010 BJTOTO今天起很多，是否有重大消息要宣布了？
http://readforalife.blogspot.com/2010/03/30032010-bjtoto.html

今天BJCORP和BJTOTO,BJTOTO-CD,CF都起了。这几天在跟踪BJTOTO-CD，发觉有人在开始于RM0.055价位大量收票。今天未段突然被推上RM0.08,是否意味着有消息即将公布呢。BJTOTO 今年还没有派息，很多分析家已经预测今年派息将介于RM0.20-0.28,自己预测最少应该有RM0.25吧。最近BJ 很积极。今天USD在创新高RM3.26,相信未来世界继续看好马来西亚。就连香港著名财经专栏作家曹仁超也在最新文章提到马来西亚的房地产。
BJTOTO-CD这几天的VOLUME加好多。
20100329 0.055 0.065 0.055 0.060 454,600
20100326 0.055 0.055 0.055 0.055 149,000
20100325 0.050 0.060 0.050 0.055 1,220,500
20100324 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 200,000
20100323 0.050 0.050 0.045 0.050 580,500
20100322 0.045 0.045 0.045 0.045 148,000
20100319 0.045 0.045 0.045 0.045 100,000
20100318 0.045 0.045 0.045 0.045 119,700
20100317 0.040 0.045 0.040 0.045 136,100
20100316 0.040 0.040 0.040 0.040 307,200

BJTOTO今天去到高点RM4.50,未来会否再上，指日可待。。。。。

另外自己觉得值得注意TELEKOM了。新的UNIFI,一个集电话，快速宽频还有IPTV是很有威胁的。虽然目前还未成气候，还有很多分析家看淡，不过我自己长期看好。因为这是我自己一直以来的梦想。以前看刘德华的一套电影，就有累似的情节。这个东西会间接影响广告的垄断，绝对不可小看。加上 TM每年可观的派息，我自己会长期看好。现在自己每个月的CELCOM BROADBAND最快的那个都要RM119/M,只要加好几块，如果可以节省ASTRO，何乐不为。
所以现在关键是IPTV可以提供什么节目,还有未来可以去到全国吗，因为目前只是一些地方有COVERAGE。
看看UNIFI:
http://www.unifi.my/index3.html
UniFi is currently available at selected premises within the following areas:

1. Bangsar
2. Taman Tun Dr. Ismail
3. Subang Jaya
4. Shah Alam

slutodomo

今天的一家C REPORT好像不小心透露了消息

Sports betting
A slice of sports betting as well? Recent press reports have suggested that sports
betting could be legalised in Malaysia soon and Berjaya Corp has been named as a
potential beneficiary. Speculation about the potential legalisation of sports betting
activities is not new. In 2003, it was reported that Ascot Sports Sdn Bhd, a company
privately-owned by Tan Sri Vincent Tan, had been issued a sports betting licence.
Ascot had purportedly paid RM25m to the Ministry of Finance in Jun 03 for the 20-
year concession. But in Oct 04, the PM at that point in time rebuffed this possibility,
crushing Ascot’s hopes. Now, more than five years later, it appears that the
government may be open to legalising this segment, which has a thriving illegal
market. Just last week, PM Datuk Seri Najib Razak was quoted as saying that the
government has received such proposals and will review them.
Tan Sri’s private venture, for now. Tan Sri clarified that he has the first right of
refusal for the sports betting licence in Malaysia and the venture will be parked under
a private entity. Should the government allow sports betting in Malaysia, Berjaya Corp
should indirectly benefit by virtue of B-Toto’s involvement as the distribution agent via
its 680 NFO outlets. Timing-wise, we gather that it is unlikely that the operating
system can be ready in time to capture the World Cup season in Jun-Jul. We also do
not discount the possibility that Tan Sri could inject the sports-betting business into
Berjaya Corp to consolidate its gaming venture. We will view this positively if it is
earnings accretive to the group and the cost of injecting the licence into the group is
attractive.
How big is the sport betting market? Our quick survey has returned a wide range
for the potential market size of the legal football betting market. Looking across the
causeway to Singapore, we note that total football betting duties collected in 2009
amounted to S$43.5m. Using this as a starting point, we estimate Singapore’s legal
football betting market to be worth S$1.86bn (RM4.65bn). As a percentage of nominal
GDP, Singapore’s legal football betting market works out to about 0.7%. We also look
at football betting duties collected in Hong Kong in 2008/09, which implied a legal
market worth HK$58bn (RM29bn) or 3.5% of nominal GDP. Despite its shorter
operating history, Hong Kong’s legal football betting market is much bigger than
Singapore’s, probably because of the former’s more extensive product offerings and
distribution channels. For Malaysia, we take a discounted mid-range 1.1% of nominal
GDP to account for the fact that i) 50% of Malaysian population is not allowed to bet,
and ii) Malaysia could have a wider product range than the Singapore market. This
brings us to a potential legal market size of RM8bn. Taking into consideration the
segment’s much higher prize payout ratio of circa 90%, we estimate that sports betting
could generate EBITDA margins of circa 5-6%, much lower than the NFOs’ mid-teens.
With B-Toto’s 680 outlets being initially used as over-the-counter distribution
channels, we estimate that the venture could bump up B-Toto’s bottom line by about
7%. This assumes that i) B-Toto is the sole distribution agent and ii) the 1%
commission is shared equally with B-Toto’s agents (Figure 2). However, should the
other two NFOs be given the distribution rights for sports betting and B-Toto’s share of
the distribution channel drop to 45%, the earnings accretion for B-Toto from sports
betting would be lower at 3.1%. Based on the current shareholding structure of the
sports-betting licence, we estimate that this would have a minor impact on our SOP
for B Corp as the additional earnings would add about 3-7 sen to our target price for
B-Toto based on DDM valuation. B Corp’s current effective stake in B-Toto is 25.3%

slutodomo

BJTOTO的分店会拿来下注。。。。？？

slutodomo

BJTOTO的分店会拿来下注。。。。？？

peterg

我还收不夠多票.........

cheekhoon

RM4.50 撑不久！！

小小叶

回复 1484# my988


    我是长期看好Btoto，因为长期受股息。买了BToto，我只会收着。第一粒Btoto已经收了5年，涨跌我都不卖。这样的做法对不对？还是应该高价就卖掉？

yaja

请问各位高手，如果小弟只是想长期赚股息，BJTOTO可以买吗？
BJTOTO最新一次的股息是多少呢？
谢谢！

slutodomo

这个股我rm4.20买，靠近rm4.00可以买一些来收股息。

mrmoon2008

eh.... 有內幕消息告知BJTOTO 真的重新開啟賭球的執照﹐會在世界杯開始前投入運作。
已經在訓練員工及加設櫃檯﹐此消息待正式宣佈後﹐bjtoto 應該會大起。但政治與宗教的力量不容忽視... 還是那句.... 消息來源可靠﹐但買賣自負。

Arsenal

如果消息属实，VT/公司做什要拼命丢票？？？

sy132100

谢谢分享！！！

mrmoon2008

回复 1496# Arsenal

老實講﹐我不是一個厲害分析股市的人﹐我只不過是一個普通的“股民”...... 但由於工作的關係間接從同行中得知﹐而這些同行也不是什麼股民.... 沒有假假發放利好消息的必要.....因為他們只是平凡的“程序編寫員(programmer)”....... 正在為VT 修改下球注的軟件..... 如果被騙﹐也只有VT 演得逼真﹐特地化錢從外國買進軟件及找programmer 做 customization

我是林国泰

回复  Arsenal

老實講﹐我不是一個厲害分析股市的人﹐我只不過是一個普通的“股民”...... 但由於工作的 ...
mrmoon2008 发表于 8-4-2010 08:54 AM

    如果这消息屬实可靠的說，到時我一定发得像猪头

我是林国泰

回复  Arsenal

老實講﹐我不是一個厲害分析股市的人﹐我只不過是一個普通的“股民”...... 但由於工作的 ...
mrmoon2008 发表于 8-4-2010 08:54 AM

    如果这消息可靠的話,到時我一定发得像猪头