股市要调整了

tanhy

Reeling states hit by April tax shortfallsStates struggle to close new shortfalls before fiscal years end in June. Too late for spending cuts, states must tap into reserves or federal stimulus funds.

wrestling with yet another round of budget shortfalls, this time due to plummeting April income tax revenues.

The latest gaps are proving more of a challenge. Most states close their fiscal years at the end of June, so they have limited ways to balance their budgets at this point. Unlike the federal government, states can't run a deficit.
Most are looking to tap rainy day funds or use federal stimulus money to shore up their finances, since spending cuts or fee hikes won't bring in the bucks in time. The problem is that many states were counting on those funds to balance their fiscal year 2010 budgets.

州政府要倒了
不怕，Citi已经准备了5B来救他们
美国的印钞机开动24小时都不够用

alpinev18

原帖由 tanhy 于 11-5-2009 06:23 PM 发表


惨，我还没short STI今天就跌了70点，真的这样黑？

原本想等到STI起到2400-2500才short 它，不知道来的的及去开futures account 吗

希望STI能撑到我开户口才瓜

昨天INTERVIEW 一個ACCOUNTS 的小姐. 從事METAL STAMPING 的, 在那里工作了快九年. 現在一直在拿无薪假期..

我問她, 現在的情況不是好了一點麼? 她竟然答, 六月的情況會更糟. [BASED ON　ORDERS ON HAND].

alpinev18

一波未平, 一波又起.  損失恐破6500億‧美國或引發卡債風暴

• 國際財經

2009-05-12 19:00
（美國‧紐約）《紐約時報》指出，遭到次貸風暴重創的美國銀行業，可能還面臨新一波衝擊－來自信用卡的債務危機。
報導指出，節節高升的失業率可能造成數以百萬計的美國民眾繳不出卡費，最高恐造成整體信用卡市場1860億美元（約馬幣6557億令吉）的損失。
長久以來，美國失業率與信用卡違約率之間幾乎維持差不多水準，例如2008年銀行的平均信用卡違約率為5.5%，當時的平均失業率為5.8%。
違約率超越失業數字
但是專家預測，在房市危機和消費者信心低落的多重影響下，這樣的經驗法則將不再適用，許多銀行的信用卡違約率已開始大幅超越失業數字。
上週美國政府公佈的銀行壓力測試結果顯示，預估至2010年底，全美19間大型銀行來自信用卡的虧損恐怕將高達824億美元。
儘管政府官員表示，這是“最壞的情況”，但如果失業率如多數經濟學家所預測的一樣而突破10%，部份銀行的信用卡損失將不僅止於此。
根據壓力測試結果，美國運通和第一資本金融公司（Capital One Financial）預估就有約20%的信用卡欠款將在今年和明年內被提列為呆賬。美國銀行、花旗和摩根大通預計的信用卡呆賬部位約23%。
《紐約時報》指出，雖然政府的預測已夠嚇人，但是銀行信用卡危機的規模只怕還是被低估了。
據提供大型銀行風險管理顧問業務的奧緯（Oliver Wyman）公司推估，如果將官方提供的呆賬率套用至整體信用卡市場，至2010年，全美大型銀行總計的損失恐達1415億美元，整體市場的虧損最高恐達1860億美元。

tanhy

RealtyTrac: April foreclosures rise 32 percentApril foreclosures rise 32 percent, with more bank repossessions likely to come

• MIAMI (AP) -- The number of U.S. households faced with losing their homes to foreclosure jumped 32 percent in April compared with the same month last year, with Nevada, Florida and California showing the highest rates, according to data released Wednesday.

More than 342,000 households received at least one foreclosure-related notice in April, RealtyTrac Inc. said. That means one in every 374 U.S. housing units received a foreclosure filing last month, the highest monthly rate since the Irvine, California-based foreclosure listing firm began its report in January 2005.
April was the second straight month with more than 300,000 households receiving a foreclosure filing, as the number of borrowers with mortgage troubles failed to abate.
The April number, however, was less than 1 percent above that posted in March, when more than 340,000 properties were affected. The March data was up 17 percent from February and 46 percent from a year earlier.
"We've never seen two consecutive months like this," said Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac's senior vice president for marketing. "It's the volume that's surprising."

While total foreclosure activity was up, the number of repossessions by banks was down on a monthly and annual basis to their lowest level since March of last year, RealtyTrac said.
But that's far from positive news. Because much of the foreclosure activity in April was in the default and auction stages -- the first parts of the foreclosure process -- it's likely that repossessions will increase in coming months, RealtyTrac said.
About 63,900 homes were repossessed in April, down 11 percent from about 71,700 in March, RealtyTrac said. But the mortgage industry has resumed cracking down on delinquent borrowers after foreclosures were temporarily halted by mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, together with many other lenders.
"All of these loans are now being processed pretty rapidly by the servers," Sharga said.
Help might be on the way. President Barack Obama's administration announced a plan in March to provide $75 billion in incentive payments for the mortgage industry to modify loans to help up to 9 million borrowers avoid foreclosure.

这就是所谓的房产好转的迹象？
Obama正在推行75B的救负资产的计划，成功的话我们又会看到foreclosure减少, 股市又可以兴奋了
yahoo 大大的头条“经济开始好转, 破产的人减少”

不过美国政府已经破产

tanhy

转贴 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124208415028908497.html

[size=1em][size=1em]Was It a Sucker's Rally?You can have a jobless recovery but you can't have a profitless one.

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[size=1em][size=1em]By ANDY KESSLER[size=1.3em]The Dow Jones Industrial Average has bounced an astounding 30% from its March 9 low of 6547. Is this the dawn of a new era? Are we off to the races again?
[size=1.3em]I'm not so sure. Only a fool predicts the stock market, so here I go. This sure smells to me like a sucker's rally. That's because there aren't sustainable, fundamental reasons for the market's continued rise. Here are three explanations for the short-term upswing:
[size=1.3em]- Armageddon is off the table. It has been clear for some time that the funds available from the federal government's Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) were not going to be enough to shore up bank balance sheets laced with toxic assets.
[size=1.3em]On Feb. 10, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner rolled out another, much hyped bank rescue plan. It was judged incomplete -- and the market sold off 382 points in disgust.
[size=1.3em]Citigroup stock flirted with $1 on March 9. Nationalizations seemed inevitable as bears had their day.
[size=1.3em]Still, the Treasury bought time by announcing on the same day as Mr. Geithner's underwhelming rescue plan that it would conduct "stress tests" of 19 large U.S. banks. It also implied, over time, that no bank would fail the test (which was more a negotiation than an audit). And when White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel clearly stated on April 19 that nationalization was "not the goal" of the administration, it became safe to own financial stocks again.
[size=1.3em]It doesn't matter if financial institution losses are $2 trillion or the pessimists' $3.6 trillion. "No more failures" is policy. While the U.S. government may end up owning maybe a third of the equity of Citi and Bank of America and a few others, none will be nationalized. And even though future bank profits will be held back by constant write downs of "legacy" assets (we don't call them toxic anymore), the bears have backed off and the market rallied -- Citi is now $4.
[size=1.3em]- Zero yields. The Federal Reserve, by driving short-term rates to almost zero, has messed up asset allocation formulas. Money always seeks its highest risk-adjusted return. Thus in normal markets if bond yields rise they become more attractive than risky stocks, so money shifts. And vice versa. Well, have you looked at your bank statement lately?
[size=1.3em]Savings accounts pay a whopping 0.2% interest rate -- 20 basis points. Even seven-day commercial paper money-market funds are paying under 50 basis points. So money has shifted to stocks, some of it automatically, as bond returns are puny compared to potential stock returns. Meanwhile, both mutual funds and hedge funds that missed the market pop are playing catch-up -- rushing to buy stocks.
[size=1.3em]- Bernanke's printing press. On March 18, the Federal Reserve announced it would purchase up to $300 billion of long-term bonds as well as $750 billion of mortgage-backed securities. Of all the Fed's moves, this "quantitative easing" gets money into the economy the fastest -- basically by cranking the handle of the printing press and flooding the market with dollars (in reality, with additional bank credit). Since these dollars are not going into home building, coal-fired electric plants or auto factories, they end up in the stock market.
[size=1.3em]A rising market means that banks are able to raise much-needed equity from private money funds instead of from the feds. And last Thursday, accompanying this flood of new money, came the reassuring results of the bank stress tests.
[size=1.3em]The next day Morgan Stanley raised $4 billion by selling stock at $24 in an oversubscribed deal. Wells Fargo also raised $8.6 billion that day by selling stock at $22 a share, up from $8 two months ago. And Bank of America registered 1.25 billion shares to sell this week. Citi is next. It's almost as if someone engineered a stock-market rally to entice private investors to fund the banks rather than taxpayers.
[size=1.3em]Can you see why I believe this is a sucker's rally?
[size=1.3em]The stock market still has big hurdles to clear. You can have a jobless recovery, but you can't have a profitless recovery. Consider: Earnings are subpar, Treasury's last auction was a bust because of weak demand, the dollar is suspect, the stimulus is pork, the latest budget projects a $1.84 trillion deficit, the administration is berating investment firms and hedge funds saying "I don't stand with them," California is dead broke, health care may be nationalized, cap and trade will bump electric bills by 30% . . . Shall I go on?
[size=1.3em]Until these issues are resolved, I don't see the stock market going much higher. I'm not disagreeing with the Fed's policies -- but I won't buy into a rising stock market based on them. I'm bullish when I see productivity driving wealth.
[size=1.3em]For now, the market appears dependent on a hand cranking out dollars to help fund banks. I'd rather see rising expectations for corporate profits.
[size=1.3em]Mr. Kessler, a former hedge-fund manager, is the author of "How We Got Here" (Collins, 2005).
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[size=1.3em]作者讲的刚好就是我想的

tanhy

GM says it could sell assets to new co. in Ch. 11GM says it could sell most assets to new company, liquidate rest, if it enters bankruptcy

• On Thursday May 14, 2009, 7:24 pm EDT

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Related:

• General Motors Corporation

[size=1em]DETROIT (AP) -- General Motors Corp. says it likely would sell most of its assets to a new company and liquidate the rest if it has to seek bankruptcy protection.
Related Quotes
SymbolPriceChangeGM1.15-0.06

[size=1em]The company made the disclosure Thursday in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. It has said bankruptcy is possible if it doesn't get enough takers on an offer to swap $27 billion in bond debt for stock.
[size=1em]The automaker also says it could seek court approval of its reorganization plan even if creditors vote against it.
[size=1em]GM offered last month to give bondholders 225 shares for every $1,000 worth of bonds. The company would issue 62 billion new shares and then do a 100-for-1 reverse stock split.
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[size=1em]Obama, 是时候出来骂这些贪得无厌的hedge fund了

tanhy

Mean Street: Obama’s Big Fat Fibbing Budget


By Evan Newmark[size=1.3em]Is the White House lying to the American public about the economy? Or, if not outright lying, is it being awfully stingy with the truth?
[size=1.3em]You have to wonder.
[size=1.3em]After all, the Obama economic team is full of very smart people. And they have to see the same things that you and I see.
[size=1.3em]They see April’s lousy retail numbers and record foreclosure rate. They see unemployment at 8.9%, state tax revenues facing double-digit declines, and a 14% fall in home prices last quarter.
[size=1.3em]So how can National Economic Council boss Larry Summers, Council of Economic Advisers chief Christina Romer or Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner still believe in a 7.9% unemployment rate and 3.2% GDP growth for 2010, as the President budgeted in late February?
[size=1.3em]I have been struggling to answer this for weeks and the best theory I can come up with is, simply, they don’t. As I figure it, the Obama economic team is biding time, slowly leaking the ugly truth about its flawed budget as quietly as possible.
[size=1.3em]It isn’t that President Obama wants to mislead the public on the economy. He probably thinks he has no other choice. He has a hugely ambitious agenda that requires huge amounts of money and a hugely aggressive budget.
[size=1.3em]What is disturbing isn’t that the budget is out of whack, but that the White House has known it for some time.
[size=1.3em]Indeed, on Monday, the Office of Management and Budget revised its combined 2009 and 2010 deficit upward by $176 billion to $3.1 trillion. The original estimate wasn’t even three months old. But here was Budget Director Peter Orszag making excuses on his blog: “The deficits in these years…are driven largely by the economic crisis inherited by this Administration.”

[size=1.3em]说得很合理，如果经济会复苏，2010的budget deficit就不可能这么高
[size=1.3em]相信越来越多坏消息会爆出来（不过要等到美国银行拿了钱后)

alpinev18

原帖由 tanhy 于 15-5-2009 07:45 AM 发表
Mean Street: Obama’s Big Fat Fibbing Budget


By Evan NewmarkIs the White House lying to the American public about the economy? Or, if not outright lying, is it being awfully stingy with the truth ...

一路又向北了.

[ 本帖最后由 alpinev18 于 19-5-2009 01:57 PM 编辑 ]

tanhy

原帖由 alpinev18 于 18-5-2009 10:59 AM 发表 一路又向北了.

先看这则新闻:

Stocks fluctuate on surprise drop in housing dataStocks trade in narrow range as housing data show surprise drop, fanning economic worries

• Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer
• On Tuesday May 19, 2009, 9:55 am EDT

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[size=1em]NEW YORK (AP) -- Investors are holding off making big bets about an economic rebound after housing construction tumbled to a record low in April.

[size=1em]Stocks fluctuated in a narrow range in the early going Tuesday. Investors who had been expecting an increase in construction didn't panic in part because a sharp drop in apartment building offset a rebound in single-family construction.

[size=1em]surprise drop in constrcution data?
[size=1em]为何我一点都不surprise?
[size=1em]reuter说GM将倒闭，不过我坚持认为美国政府不会让他倒
[size=1em]如果GM真的如我预测般不倒，那我对接下来将发生的事就更有把握

tanhy

投资（而不是投机，投机的人我不会理这么多）港股的人小心了
随着港股在3个月内起了48%,香港金管局已经准备面对热钱撤退

搞不好为了对抗炒家，香港金管局会调利率，如果真的发生，保重

tanhy

Lowe's 发表乐观的预报，美股大起
Home Depot 的发言人说“不乐观”，美股小跌
""We believe consumers remain cautious about spending in this environment," Craig Menear, Home Depot'sexecutive vice president of merchandising, said during a conference call.
"It's not improving," Menear said. "As a matter of fact, it was slightly worse than it was in the fourth quarter."



再来看看两家公司的规模：
Lowe's Companies, Inc.

Revenue	$46.9 billion USD (2006)
Employees	216,000[2008, 4th qtr]

The Home Depot, Inc.

Revenue	▲$84.740 billion USD(2008)[1]
Net income	▼$4.395 billion USD (2008)[2]
Employees	331,000 (2008)

老大的话对股市的影响力比不上老二？

加上美国昨天发布的4月Construction跌幅超预期，难道你真的以为楼市见底了？股市真的反应经济？还是热钱反应经济？

tanhy

隔壁坛有股友对美国政府因对H1N1的方式感到担忧美国对H1N1的防备不多，主流媒体甚至有遮掩的悬疑
我的推测还是阴谋论
等到美国银行拿了钱，搞不好患者的数目会爆赠
大家准备看戏吧，看美国政府表演的猴子戏

alpinev18

原帖由 tanhy 于 20-5-2009 07:34 AM 发表
投资（而不是投机，投机的人我不会理这么多）港股的人小心了
随着港股在3个月内起了48%,香港金管局已经准备面对热钱撤退

搞不好为了对抗炒家，香港金管局会调利率，如果真的发生，保重

我正在等香港的热錢撤退, 但是他们似乎炒的不亦乐乎.:@ :@

要進香港股市? 等HSI 13000 左右吧.

alpinev18

原帖由 tanhy 于 19-5-2009 10:19 PM 发表

先看这则新闻:

Stocks fluctuate on surprise drop in housing dataStocks trade in narrow range as housing data show surprise drop, fanning economic worriesTim Paradis, AP Business WriterOn Tue ...

可以分享一下你的预测嗎?

alpinev18

原帖由 tanhy 于 20-5-2009 08:26 AM 发表
隔壁坛有股友对美国政府因对H1N1的方式感到担忧美国对H1N1的防备不多，主流媒体甚至有遮掩的悬疑
我的推测还是阴谋论
等到美国银行拿了钱，搞不好患者的数目会爆赠
大家准备看戏吧，看美国政府表演的猴子戏

几时是最后拿錢的期限?

tanhy

原帖由 alpinev18 于 20-5-2009 09:07 AM 发表 可以分享一下你的预测嗎?

之前美国政府说的 green shoots， 是建立在美国经济跌幅放缓（3-4月）
不过3-4月的复苏是有周期性，主要是因为1-2月的暴跌，这也是周期，因为佳节都在年尾，所以1-2月特别难看是预料中
所以3-4月起，没什么特别意义

只要细心看那些数据，就会发现美国政府灌了很多水
银行业的Accounting不用说了
房地产的sales赠加，其实是破产的屋子被买，和复苏是两码事

Constrcution跌幅超预期，代表供应过剩，房市还有排跌
大家都知道破产的人会越来越多，被拍卖的等着来，谁敢起新屋？

tanhy

原帖由 alpinev18 于 20-5-2009 09:07 AM 发表 几时是最后拿錢的期限?

政府给的期限是6月8号就要给proposal,虽然说有6个月的执行期，不过看了Wells Fargo和GS, 就知道银行该会在给proposal时就拿钱
比较好的银行都会尽快拿钱，越烂的越拖，因为数目太大会冲淡股权，需要想更久

alpinev18

原帖由 tanhy 于 20-5-2009 09:28 AM 发表

政府给的期限是6月8号就要给proposal,虽然说有6个月的执行期，不过看了Wells Fargo和GS, 就知道银行该会在给proposal时就拿钱
比较好的银行都会尽快拿钱，越烂的越拖，因为数目太大会冲淡股权，需要想更久

從你转贴的SUCKER'S RALLY 文章里EXTRACT 出來的:

"A rising market means that banks are able to raise much-needed equity from private money funds instead of from the feds. And last Thursday, accompanying this flood of new money, came the reassuring results of the bank stress tests.
[size=1.3em]The next day Morgan Stanley raised $4 billion by selling stock at $24 in an oversubscribed deal. Wells Fargo also raised $8.6 billion that day by selling stock at $22 a share, up from $8 two months ago. And Bank of America registered 1.25 billion shares to sell this week. Citi is next. It's almost as if someone engineered a stock-market rally to entice private investors to fund the banks rather than taxpayers.
"
看來, DJ 要等在8/6 之后才更明朗化.

tanhy

17家大银行有政府帮助骗钱，小的呢？
Local Banks Face Big LossesJournal Study of 940 Lenders Shows Potential for Deep Hit on Commercial Property

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124269114847832587.html#mod=loomia?loomia_si=t0:a16:g4:r2:c0:b0


Commercial real-estate loans could generate losses of $100 billion by the end of next year at more than 900 small and midsize U.S. banks if the economy's woes deepen, according to an analysis by The Wall Street Journal.



The Journal, using data contained in banks' filings with the Federal Reserve, examined the financial health of 940 small and midsize banks. It applied the loan-loss criteria that the Fed used in its stress tests of the largest banks.

tanhy

经济有没有复苏？看看专家的意见：
Are there any signs of recovery?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8000062.stm


唯一看好明年Spring会复苏的专家说
"
I think there are signs of things stabilising everywhere you look, from house prices to the stock market to commodity prices, which is one of the best predictors of global recovery.

"
房地产在复苏？
股市起就等于复苏？ 最快下个月专家就会看到所谓的复苏