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发表于 24-10-2008 08:29 AM
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KLCI below 900 points By YEOW POOI LING
Asian shares weaker for second day and fall to four-year lows
PETALINGJAYA: The KL Composite Index (KLCI) closed below 900 points for thefirst time since June 2006, as the global financial crisis deepened invarious parts of Asia.
Asian shares were also weaker for the second consecutive day this week, falling to their lowest levels in four years.
Yesterday,the New Zealand central bank announced rate cut by 100 basis points to6.5% while Japan reported export data that missed estimates, signallingpoorer demand from its major trade partners.
This week, the yen appreciated by 4% against the US dollar, indicating further unwinding of assets and redemption of funds.
TheKLCI closed down 13 points to 891.3 while Kospi plunged 7.5%, Nikkei225 lost 2.5%, Hang Seng Index dropped 3.6% and the Straits Times Indexfell 4.1%.
According to StarBiz technical chartist K.M. LEE,the KLCI’s intraday low of 881 was its worst since June 2005 butbargain hunting on selected blue chips helped it recover some of thelosses.
Technically, the prevailing trend was clearly bearishbut, given the oversold position, a relief rebound might be around thecorner, he said, adding that the immediate upside potential was likelyto be capped at the 14-day simple moving average, resting at 941 pointsand still falling.
Aseambankers head of retail research LeeCheng Hooi estimated that the next support level for the benchmarkindex was at 880, followed by 859 and 802.
He said Valuecap SdnBhd, the state-owned asset management company, was likely to startbuying around the 859 level with the promised injection of RM5bil fromthe Government.
The anticipated multiplier effect, however, maybe muted as buying support is likely in bigger-capped stocks whilesecond and lower liners will still be shunned.
Lee said the net outflow since the second half of last year to the first half of 2008 was estimated at about RM46bil.
CreditSuisse Asia chief economist Joseph Tan said the impact of the financialcrisis on the real economy was slowly unfolding with risingunemployment rate in the US and falling prices of goods.
Holiday travel was also slowing down and Asian exports were seeing poorer performances, he said.
Nevertheless,Asia would be more resilient to weather the tough times ahead, thanksto higher savings rates with banks having a relatively wider depositbase, Tan added.
An analyst at fundsupermart.com said whileexport growth to the US and Europe would deteriorate as indicated indata from China and South Korea, Asian consumption, especially fromChina and India, was expected to take the lead to sustainintra-regional trade.
She also noted positive signs, like theeasing of tightness in the credit market over the past week andconcerted efforts by governments to tackle the financial challenges,including guaranteeing deposits, interbank lending and capitalinjections into the system.
“We believe once the interbank ratereturns to normal and when market sentiment starts to recover, monieswill flow into Asia again, as valuation remains the most attractiveacross the world,” she added. |
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