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发表于 14-7-2015 11:28 AM
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本帖最后由 SuperKedah 于 14-7-2015 11:41 AM 编辑
老兄, 不懂不要玩好不好!!!!
你以為你可以移花接木?
你自己貼的東西:
....A sudden stop in capital flows is defined as a sudden
slowdown in private capital inflows into emerging market economies,
===>新興市場經濟體!!!!
=============================================
你貼出的例子都以mexico為例子, Greece是新興市場經濟體?
我無法從想像這是甚麼鬼的capital inflows的Sudden Stop, 只能把它解讀為FDI
=============================================
學藝不精就不要玩火, 懂不懂?
(不懂经济就承认，不懂装懂只会让全世界笑话 : 你吞回去罷)
===========================================
"放上fdi图片做什么？sudden stop是看这个的吗？什么都不懂就不要乱说话。"
你真的好搞笑! FDI中的gross inflows = capital inflows
紅色條的就是gross inflows = foreign capital inflows.
有看到大規模的減少嗎?
好心你啦, 多讀點書, 不懂就不要一直讓人打臉!
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发表于 14-7-2015 11:44 AM
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本帖最后由 tuaceng 于 14-7-2015 11:48 AM 编辑
自己读一半不读一半，所以讲的话也是半桶水，sudden stop发生在新兴国家，不等于不会在先进国家发生。
明明写在wikipedia那么大个字都看不到？
Recession that began in the U.S. in2007–2009 spread to Europe, the flow of funds from the European core countriesto the periphery began to dry up. Reports in 2009 of fiscal mismanagement anddeception increased borrowing costs; the combination meant Greece could nolonger borrow to finance its trade and budget deficit. A country facing a “sudden stop” in private investment and a high debt loadtypically allows its currency to depreciate (i.e., inflation) to encourageinvestment and to pay back the debt in cheaper currency, but this is not anoption while Greece remains on the Euro. Instead, to become more competitive,Greek wages fell nearly 20% from mid-2010 to 2014, a form of deflation. Thisresulted in a significant reduction in income or GDP, resulting in a severerecession and a significant rise in the debt to GDP ratio. Unemployment hasrisen to nearly 25%, from below 10% in 2003. However, significant governmentspending cuts have also helped the Greek government return to a primary budgetsurplus, meaning it now collects more revenue than it pays out, excludinginterest.
全世界的人都知道希腊遇到sudden stop，是你自己一个人在那里拼命否认而已。
Emerging markets and advanced economiesOther studies focus on the relationship between current account reversals and sudden stops in both emerging markets and advanced economies.[9] Using cross-country data for a sample of 157 countries during the 1970-2001 period, the results indicate that 46.1% of countries that suffered a sudden stop also faced a current account reversal, while 22.9% of countries that faced current account reversals also faced a sudden stop episode. The less-than-one relationship could be related to an effective use of international reserves to offset capital outflows during sudden stops, while during current account reversals, there are some countries that were not receiving large capital inflows, so their deficits were financed through a loss of international reserves.
A comparison of the stylized facts observed during sudden stop episodes in emerging market economies and developed countries on the financial crises of the 1990s[4] relate sudden stops in emerging market and advanced economies with the presence of contagion effects. Most sudden stop episodes for emerging markets occur around the Tequila (1994), East Asian (1997) and Russian (1998) crises. In the case of developed economies, sudden stop episodes occur around the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) (1992–1993) crisis
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发表于 14-7-2015 11:55 AM
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"sudden stop发生在新兴国家，不等于不会在先进国家发生。"
甚他的還不談, 你貼這作麼?
"A sudden stop in capital flows is defined as a sudden
slowdown inprivate capital inflows into emerging marketeconomies..."
定義是吧? 那你現在又自打自臉 : "不等于不会在先进国家发生。"
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发表于 14-7-2015 12:05 PM
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这是wikipedia自己说的，然后wikipedia自己用先进国来做例子。
而且，wikipedia有规定过sudden stop是不可以发生在先进国吗？
现在全世界都把他apply在希腊，需要得到你的同意吗？还在文字游戏死撑？
所以当初你否认hypersong关于这点，就显出了你的无知和钻牛角尖。
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发表于 14-7-2015 12:15 PM
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A country facing a “sudden stop” in private investment and a high debt
load typically allows its currency to depreciate
(i.e., inflation) to encourageinvestment and to pay back the debt in cheaper
currency, but this is not an option while Greece remains on the Euro.
Instead, to become more competitive...
又來打你臉: 外资中断"sudden stop" =>近因Geece Crisis?
你貼的東西打你臉:
"while Greece remains on the Euro.Instead, to become more competitive..."
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发表于 14-7-2015 12:34 PM
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本帖最后由 SuperKedah 于 14-7-2015 01:44 PM 编辑
"这是wikipedia自己说的，然后wikipedia自己用先进国来做例子。"
證明你完全不懂, 只會人云亦云, 用點基礎知識去判斷就不會嗎?
"自己读一半不读一半，所以讲的话也是半桶水" =>吞回去罷!
"wikipedia有规定过sudden stop是不可以发生在先进国吗？"
先去搞清楚甚麼是define好不好
"现在全世界都把他apply在希腊，需要得到你的同意吗？还在文字游戏死撑？"
是嗎, 那一篇經濟專家有說Greece Crisis成因是sudden stop
sudden stop 的外資大規模撤離現象有發生麼? 我貼的FDI就明顯列出,
2004-2014都沒有發生foreign capital inflows 持續大規模減少的現象,
2015年危機看似無解(4月份)之後, capital inflow才再步入負數:
"所以当初你否认hypersong关于这点，就显出了你的无知和钻牛角尖。"
講這麼多作麼, 看我貼出的數據,
都沒觀察到有發生所謂的sudden stop現象,
你指出是那年開始到現在的危機, foreign capital inflows
有持續的大規模的外撤? 而這外撤造成希臘的金融危機????
無知的是你罷!!!
===================================================
Greece Crisis從來都不是外資所造成的, 是債務所造成的.
每一份報導都說是Debts Crisis (債務危機), 有甚報導是說其他crisis????
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发表于 14-7-2015 02:08 PM
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都不知道你要表达什么，你自己再次重复这段，是不是就是你承认sudden stop造成希腊危机？
真是自打嘴巴。
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发表于 14-7-2015 02:22 PM
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同样的事情发生在发展中国家和发达国家的那个用词，请你自己去和语言家慢慢讨论。
看来你完全不懂什么叫做sudden stop
这么简单的东西，却般一大堆无关的东西。
A sudden stop in capital flows is defined as a sudden slowdown in private capital inflows into emerging marketeconomies, and a corresponding sharp reversal from large current account deficits into smaller deficits or small surpluses. Sudden stops are usuallyfollowed by a sharp decrease in output, private spending and credit to the private sector, and real exchange rate depreciation. The term “sudden stop” was inspired by a banker’s commenton a paper by Rüdiger Dornbusch and Alejandro Werner about Mexico, that “it is not speed that kills, it is the sudden stop”.
真不懂为什么之前你放FDI的照片做什么，FDI几时代表capital flow了？不懂就不要装懂。
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发表于 14-7-2015 02:29 PM
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自貼的文章在打你臉啊! 我再貼出來給你爽爽!
IMF列出4種financial Crises:
1) currency crises
2) sudden stops
3) debt crises
4) banking crises.
"现在全世界都把他apply在希腊，需要得到你的同意吗？还在文字游戏死撑？
所以当初你否认hypersong关于这点，就显出了你的无知和钻牛角尖。"
你支持hypersong有關Greece Crisis是sudden stops, 那就舉出實證來吧,
貼出國際性的報章, 說Greece目前是Sudden stops Crisis不是Debts Crisis.
===========================================
寫到這裡就不太想寫了, 肉腳就是肉腳!
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发表于 14-7-2015 02:44 PM
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本帖最后由 SuperKedah 于 14-7-2015 02:54 PM 编辑
"同样的事情发生在发展中国家和发达国家的那个用词，
请你自己去和语言家慢慢讨论。"
沒本事回答就沒本事回答, 裝模作樣, 看了都厭惡!!!!
"A sudden stop in capital flows is defined as a sudden slowdown in private capital inflows "
"真不懂为什么之前你放FDI的照片做什么，FDI几时代表capital flow了？不懂就不要装懂。"
你真是甚麼都不懂, 就只會google.
Private Capital flows = FDI + FPI (大約)
一般常用 : 正數=inflows, 負數=outflows
"这么简单的东西，却般一大堆无关的东西。"
因為你理解力不足, 所以要搬, 看來你也看不懂, 只懂google.
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发表于 14-7-2015 02:48 PM
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本帖最后由 SuperKedah 于 14-7-2015 11:04 PM 编辑
圖表只到2011年,
2012,2013,2014,及最重要的2015年不見了,
嘩! 整4年不見了, 這也可以引用來證明最近的
Greece Crisis. 那間學校出來的啊? 這種程度, 考試必死當!!!!
圖表上2011年還比2002年好, 這就是外逃sudden stops?
怎不說是回歸理性面????
====================================
我提了麼多問題, 你都沒本事回答, 只會耍嘴皮, 打嘴炮
貼出國際性的報章, 說Greece目前是
Sudden stops Crisis 不是Debts Crisis.
貼出來了才好繼續談, 不然, 我可不想浪費時間給肉腳寫解說
============== ====================
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发表于 15-7-2015 06:13 PM
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本帖最后由 tuaceng 于 15-7-2015 06:15 PM 编辑
首先，你最大的问题就是看不懂别人的回复，然后自己以为是别人表达那个意思。
沒本事回答就沒本事回答, 裝模作樣, 看了都厭惡!!!!
wikipedia说sudden stop同时发生在新兴国家和发达国家上，而且，这个是不是一定要发生在新兴国家，才叫sudden stop，根本不讨论的重点，难道你除了文字游戏以外，没有一些内容拿出来谈？
Private Capital flows = FDI + FPI (大約)
一般常用 : 正數=inflows, 負數=outflows
在加多一点：Private Capital flows = FDI + FPI+PD
所以总结就是Private Capital flows =/= FDI ，每次都要人提醒了才回去做功课？
更重要的一点，真正能反映出其中的严重性是要看整体上占经济量有多大的规模，所以说你的FDI图表根本就无关痛痒，我的图表才是看出大局面。
圖表只到2011年,
2012,2013,2014,及最重要的2015年不見了,
嘩! 整4年不見了, 這也可以引用來證明最近的
Greece Crisis. 那間學校出來的啊? 這種程度, 考試必死當!!!!
现在讨论的是危机的原因啊，危机发生开始在2008-2010，远因在加入欧元区的种种高风险财政，近因在sudden stop，当然是要找出那时侯的原因，接下来都是危机后的延续。
话题是讨论A你跟人说B，这种程度，考试必死当！！！
你支持hypersong有關Greece Crisis是sudden stops, 那就舉出實證來吧,
貼出國際性的報章, 說Greece目前是Sudden stops Crisis不是Debts Crisis.
这里说的是sudden stop 造成债务危机, sudden stop 是因，debt crisis是果，是你自己什么东西都是上网照收而已。
圖表上2011年還比2002年好, 這就是外逃sudden stops?
怎不說是回歸理性面????
好笑，如果把你的股票1千点炒到1万点，然后再跌回2千点，你看看会不会很多人跳楼，还是你所谓的“回歸理性面”
貼出國際性的報章, 說Greece目前是
Sudden stops Crisis 不是Debts Crisis.
从头到尾好象只有你一个人在说sudden stop crisis，你自己贴给你自己看吧。
开斋节旅游去。。。恕不奉陪了
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发表于 15-7-2015 10:34 PM
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本帖最后由 SuperKedah 于 16-7-2015 11:07 AM 编辑
====前帖刪除, 懶得多說, 說了你看不懂, 又只能High==================
一切簡單化, 談一件事就好!
"这里说的是sudden stop 造成债务危机, sudden stop 是因，debt crisis是果"
那很簡單, 就找出一些經濟專家學者的論文, 或國際名的媒體的分析文章也可.
貼上來證明吧.
Irish economist Karl Whelan :
" The roots of the current crisis lie in the botched handling
of the previous Greek debt default crisis. "
======================================
我等著看你貼出的論文/新聞報導說,
Greece 的Sovereign Debt Crisis,
sudden stop是因, debt crisis是果!
是Sudden stop 造成Greece債務危機
======================================
看到你這種狗X說法,還真是第一次.
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