【CAPITALA 5099 交流专区】（前名 AIRASIA ）

liciece · 发表于 15-6-2009 12:45 PM

没记错的话，airasia现在是采取以现价的方式来购买燃油，油价上升会导致营运成本的提高，这是不能否认的。不过我认为，airasia之所以采取现价购买燃油的策略，就是出于对于燃油价格趋势的不稳定性的考量，一定比例的油价上升或下调应该一早就在短期决策考虑范围之内。
由于经济发展的不明朗以及A(H1N1）的影响，航空业还是处于逆势，油价的上升只会是短暂的现象，而流感带来的乘客人数的下降才是真正的问题，对于airasia来说，这既是机遇，也是挑战。

青天白月 · 发表于 15-6-2009 01:15 PM

KUALA LUMPUR: The downturn in the airline industry, which is set to see some US$9 billion (RM31.5 billion) losses this year, has painted different operating landscapes for full-service carriers and low-cost carriers.

At home, budget airline AirAsia Bhd and full-service national carrier Malaysian Airline System Bhd (MAS) are adjusting capacities differently to fly through the current turbulence.

AirAsia group CEO Datuk Seri Tony Fernandes told The Edge Financial Daily in a recent interview the budget carrier was planning another 24% increase in capacity this quarter after its results for the first quarter of 2009 (1Q09) exceeded expectation.

Fernandes said the airline would add another 24% in capacity in 3Q, seasonally the airline’s weakest quarter.

“Demand is out there. It is just a matter of pricing your product,” he added.Fernandes. Photo by Mohd Izwan Mohd Nazam

AirAsia’s load factor remained commendable while its yields increased to 13.3 sen per revenue passenger kilometre (RPK) when capacity expanded 19% in 1Q09. The first quarter is the airline’s second weakest quarter.

Meanwhile, MAS, which posted operating losses in 1Q09, said last week it had cut capacity by as much as 11% — more than the 6% it had initially planned for the year.

Although MAS officials did not confirm further cuts in capacity during its results announcement last Friday, 1Q09 numbers suggested further cuts would be justified.

An industry analyst noted recently that a 15% to 20% decline in passengers carried in 1Q09 would be enough to trigger more cuts in MAS’ capacity.

In 1Q09, MAS saw a 24.5% drop in passenger traffic to 2.46 million while RPK dipped 28%. Seat factor dropped 13.1 percentage points to 56.1% but yield was up 4% to 29.5 sen per RPK.

MAS executive director and chief financial officer Tengku Azmil Zaharuddin in a recent email interview with The Edge Financial Daily did not rule out further cuts that may lead to grounding of planes.

It is understood that the national carrier has already parked 25% of its cargo fleet since end-2008.

“We are monitoring the global economic situation and its impact on travel demand. We have not finalised our decision on how much further cuts may be necessary, therefore, we are unable to confirm at this time if we are grounding some planes,” Tengku Azmil said in an email reply.

He also said MAS had ruled out all major expenditure this year. Accordingly, MAS would delay the receipt of three ATR aircraft, which were meant for its subsidiary Firefly, he added.

Without giving details, Tengku Azmil said it had tightened its investment criteria, which had resulted in less cash being used up. He also said it had a positive operating cash flow, before changes in working capital.

“It is difficult to predict the 2009 cash flow due to dynamic operating conditions; case in point is the H1N1 virus,” Tengku Azmil added.

This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, June 15, 2009

青天白月 · 发表于 15-6-2009 01:16 PM

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/b ... -cuts-capacity.html

triangel0 · 发表于 15-6-2009 01:21 PM

本人不看好airasia，现在所有的航空业都面临着巨额亏损，伤的伤，倒的倒，卖的卖。。迟点airasia应该会跌入谷底，只是时间的问题

细鳗鱼 · 发表于 15-6-2009 01:25 PM

只要油家起，这家公司就会赚钱
只要油价起mas 这家公司就会亏钱
相反
油价跌，a asia 就会亏钱
油价低mas 就会大赚
你们又注意到吗？？

他们是靠期货来控制他们的成本~~有错请骂

你们看看近期mas 为什么会亏钱

之前赚到满满是因为油价跌

[ 本帖最后由细鳗鱼于 15-6-2009 01:28 PM 编辑 ]

triangel0 · 发表于 15-6-2009 01:28 PM

annual report 上已经做了手脚，有时他们发布的消息是不可以相信的， airasia这股要很小心。。怕怕

liciece · 发表于 15-6-2009 04:55 PM

放心啦，不会有事的～～～AirAsia的管理能力还是能够让人放心的～～～

tan81 · 发表于 15-6-2009 05:19 PM

至于 a 和 c，再过两三年 AirAsia 就能会达标了。（纯属个人意见）

还是关于C项。

invest_klse · 发表于 15-6-2009 11:22 PM

原帖由 triangel0 于 15-6-2009 01:21 PM 发表
本人不看好airasia，现在所有的航空业都面临着巨额亏损，伤的伤，倒的倒，卖的卖。。迟点airasia应该会跌入谷底，只是时间的问题

对于关航空业的亏损，我的看法不一样，有兴趣者可看这里：平均数字。

invest_klse · 发表于 16-6-2009 12:27 AM

原帖由 tan81 于 15-6-2009 05:19 PM 发表
至于 a 和 c，再过两三年 AirAsia 就能会达标了。（纯属个人意见）

还是关于C项。

C 项：强劲的自由现金流。

我会买进 AirAsia，是看好它的成长潜能。成长股在早期高速发展时，需要极多的现金投入购买资产。因此，自由现金流往往是负数，这没有问题。只要它的 operational cashflow 还强劲就可以了。如果有一天 AirAsia 的自由现金流变成很大正数并一直维持几年，我反而可能要考虑卖出它了。

举 Wal-mart 做例子：
在 1970 年代到90年代，它的自由现金流在大多数年份都是负数的。但，这个时候恰恰是它成长最快速的时候。从2001年以后，它的自由现金流都保持正数了，但成长步伐也已经慢下来了。这种变化，反映在股价上非常明显。

印象中，（不是很肯定）早期 McDonald 的负债也是很高，free cashflow 应该也是负数。。。。。
你可以找来研究一下。。。。如果你对成长股有兴趣的话。。。。

invest_klse · 发表于 16-6-2009 12:41 AM

目前看来，AirAsia 在两三年内，要达到正的 free-cash-flow，还有点可能。
但要真正达到 “强劲“ 的自由现金流，少说也要五年、十年。

wal-mart 的旧年报可以到它的网站下载。
不过以前的财报格式与今天不一样，cashflow 需要自己慢慢分析。

goodluck88 · 发表于 16-6-2009 08:43 AM

原帖由 triangel0 于 15-6-2009 01:21 PM 发表
本人不看好airasia，现在所有的航空业都面临着巨额亏损，伤的伤，倒的倒，卖的卖。。迟点airasia应该会跌入谷底，只是时间的问题

有人倒下之际就会有人崛起。。。。

青天白月 · 发表于 16-6-2009 06:07 PM

本人认为，廉价航空业只会越来越发达。举个例子，如果从槟城去新家坡，各位要坐廉价航空还是搭巴士？？又或者各位的家刚好有印尼女佣要回爪哇印尼，你选择让她搭船还是廉价航空？？

pcmont · 发表于 17-6-2009 05:40 AM

油价高涨
airasia的股价
还可以顶到几时？？？？
0.88
我在等哦！！！

青天白月 · 发表于 17-6-2009 12:40 PM

美国经济从紧急病房转去ICU,才从ICU转去普通病房 .短期内应可出院,但身体还不适宜做激烈运动.此时如果油价大涨的话,等于要把物价抬高,美国人失业人数这样多,通涨将会拖跨美国经济 ,美国人民和美国政府也会抗拒.美国当局一定会有所动作来影响油产国. 所以理论上油价还有上调的空间,但已不会太高. 除非犹太人又来炒油价.

米奇林 · 发表于 17-6-2009 09:47 PM