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楼主 |
发表于 19-12-2006 09:58 AM
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盈利预测???
写这个更新报告的时候,我在外地的一个飞机场,等待Check-in时间。这两天,我一个好朋友联络了我,说Litrak的路费起了。这个消息是经过政府公布的。每辆车的过路费从RM 1.00提升到RM 1.60。除此之外,政府还是维持同样的RM 0.50赔偿。那么就是说,一辆车的总过路费是从RM 1.50提升到RM 2.10。这个是40%的提升! 这个消息再也好不过了!
那么我对Litrak的盈利预测应该是如此。
2006年年度报告:
Turnover(营业额):242mil
Profit before Tax (税前盈利)116mil
Net Profit(净利):80mil
EPS: 80mil / 490mil share = 16.32sen
2007年年度报告:
Turnover(营业额):242mil / 4 x 3 + (242mil / 4 x (100 + 40%)) = RM 269.2mil
Profit before Tax (税前盈利)116mil + (242mil / 4 x 40%) = RM 140.2mil
Net Profit(净利):100mil (扣除28%的税务)
EPS: 100mil / 495mil share = 20.20sen (假设Litrak通过ESOS多发出5mil share。哎呀,其实不会有那么多的啦!)
Litrak的FYE (Financial Year End) 是在每一年的3月份。那么就是说在2007年的3月份,公司是在2006年3月直到2006年12月都是以RM 1.00收费。只有在2007年的1月到2007年的3月是以起价的RM 1.60价格收费。这也就是说,在2007年的年度报告,起价的盈利贡献并不太明显,过路费起价的贡献也只有一个季度而已。
2008年年度报告:
Turnover(营业额):242mil x (100 + 40%)) = RM 338.8mil
Profit before Tax (税前盈利)116mil + (242mil x 40%) = RM 212.8mil
Net Profit(净利):153.2mil (扣除28%的税务)
EPS: 153mil / 500mil share = 30.60sen (假设这个时候公司有500mil个股。其实真的不会有那么多的啦!)
可是在2008年,Litrak就能够完全在这个起价的过路费受惠了。从2006年的Net Profit(净利):80mil一直到2008年的Net Profit(净利):153mil,这个就是一个番的成绩了。这个2008年的年度报告将会在2009年3月出炉。所以这个是3年一个番的战绩了。这个是公司盈利开的番,而不是股价开的番。股价能够去到哪里,我不敢预测。不过如果公司维持同样的PE,那么股价的确也可能开一番。 |
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楼主 |
发表于 19-1-2007 12:12 PM
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楼主 |
发表于 19-1-2007 12:56 PM
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发表于 19-1-2007 01:19 PM
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楼主 |
发表于 19-1-2007 02:32 PM
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发表于 19-1-2007 08:35 PM
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发表于 19-1-2007 09:18 PM
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原帖由 shuhjiunho 于 19-1-2007 12:12 PM 发表
我之前本来想谈Cashflow,不过想想,关心的人不多。如果要的话,私下交流就可以了,不用大费周章写长篇小说。武兄,看在你份上,又如何?
哇Uncle Ho你又怎知关心的人不多?
大有人在啊...多谢指教了. |
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发表于 21-1-2007 06:25 PM
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回复 #47 北风沙 的帖子
我也想学习,如果何伯愿意分享的话,晚辈一定鞠躬进翠,尽忠报国 |
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发表于 21-1-2007 06:46 PM
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发表于 21-1-2007 10:15 PM
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发表于 22-1-2007 10:36 AM
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想何伯伯的一句话
如果我有1.3b(litrak大约19/01/2007的市值)的钱卖下了Litrak整间公司,两年公司能够给我创造174mil的现金。
如果我将的1.3b放进银行,按照4%的利息,两年银行会给我106mil的现金利息
如果我1.3b,我想我会开地下钱庄,一年赚他一个15%我就满足了 |
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楼主 |
发表于 22-1-2007 11:50 PM
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原帖由 8years 于 21-1-2007 06:46 PM 发表
如果这么计算的话,那么银行的利息起会不会打击litrak的股价呢??
Litrak的债务大多数是属于回教贷款的。就是说,利率已经定下来了,不会根据BLR而浮动。另外,利息也大致上和银行的定期存款利息一样低,也有一些是低过定期存款利息的。所以,为什么要还债呢?是我,就一定不会这样作。 |
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楼主 |
发表于 22-1-2007 11:51 PM
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原帖由 NoRehearsal 于 21-1-2007 10:15 PM 发表
不懂现金流,受教了,谢谢 !
还请问
(1)Repayment 是否就是说 Dividend?
(2)过了2007涨价,赢利不会大幅成长了,PE可能上18吗??
(3)"要清楚谁是你的接手人", 觉得这个概念很高明,能否更多分 ...
(1)Capital repayment不是Dividend。不过也是回馈股东现金的其中一种方式。
(2)其实用PE来评估公司只是其中一个方式。没有人能够知道大众将来对公司的评估。这个指示参考指数。
(3)这个说起来有点可笑。我投资的时候,一直都以生意为主。我要卖一宗生意的时候,我一直都会想,谁会买我的生意,这个生意对他有什么好处。当然,以我的散户身份,我卖出的股票,微不足道,谁都可以吃得起。所以这个想法纯粹是训练我的思维。可是如果有一天,你成为了大户,那么你就必须顾虑到这一点了。谁会接手你的生意。你如果知道将来有人愿意买你的生意,那么你的投资将会更保险。 |
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楼主 |
发表于 22-1-2007 11:54 PM
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发表于 23-1-2007 12:17 AM
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原帖由 shuhjiunho 于 22-1-2007 11:54 PM 发表
哈哈!到了这个价位,我肯定你还是不会买。
哈哈..我肯定进的..
最少都组合的30% |
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发表于 24-1-2007 12:23 AM
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回复 #53 shuhjiunho 的帖子
谢谢!真想多放些钱,稳赚几年
以目前价位2.9
1)如果每年现金分给股东, 2006 4.6%, 2007 8.7%...
还可期待
2)Sprint Highway的贡献
3) 公路车流量增加
4)2012 涨价
这么多利好,风险在哪里呢??
母公司会有不利子公司的可能吗?? |
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发表于 6-2-2007 12:16 AM
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转贴自TheEdge:
16-01-2007: Gamuda: Fate of double-tracking project may be known this month
By Isabelle Francis
...
...
...
On its toll concessions, Lin said Gamuda would focus on repaying its loans in the next eight years, which currently stood at over RM800 million.
On its SPRINT highway, which has an average daily traffic volume of 150,000 cars, he said it incurred a loss of RM40 million last year and it is expected to accmulate some RM200 million losses over the next four to five years before profits start to come in.
Lin said it intends to use the RM150 million compensation by the government to Gamuda for not raising its toll rates to upgrade and reduce the congestion at its Lingkaran Trans Kota Sdn Bhd (Litrak) highway in the next three years. |
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发表于 6-2-2007 12:23 AM
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转贴自TheEdge:
29-01-2007: Litrak saw 10% drop in LDP traffic volume
Lingkaran Trans Kota Holdings Bhd (Litrak) has experienced a 10% drop in the average daily traffic volume of Lebuhraya Damansara-Puchong (LDP) but the decline will not have an effect on its financial performance.
LDP’s average daily traffic volume has dropped to 420,000 vehicles from about 467,000 previously following the recent toll hike, Litrak chief operating officer Richard Lim (pic) said.
However, he said the company’s revenue would not be affected as the Jan 1 hike in LDP toll of RM1.60 from RM1 previously was able to compensate for the lower traffic volume.
Speaking to FinancialDaily, Lim said it was not unusual for traffic volume to drop and LDP should be able to regain the traffic volume over time. Litrak has a 30-year concession on the LDP, which is one of the busiest highways in the Klang Valley.
Litrak is expecting single-digit growth in revenue for its financial year ending March 31, 2007 as the toll hike had only taken effect on Jan 1, he said. In financial year 2006 (FY06), the company posted a net profit of RM79.74 million on the back of RM242.97 million in revenue.
He added that Litrak should be able to post a double-digit growth in revenue in FY08 when it realises the full-year effect of the toll hike.
The government’s decision to allow for toll hikes on five Selangor highways had faced opposition from the public. The Cabinet had given the approval for highway concessionaires to reveal details of toll collection and traffic volume.
On the company’s capital expenditure for the year, Lim said the company is planning to spend a “big” amount to enhance the highways under its concession and to relieve congestion on the LDP. |
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发表于 6-2-2007 09:43 PM
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原帖由 shuhjiunho 于 22-1-2007 11:54 PM 发表
哈哈!到了这个价位,我肯定你还是不会买。
请问各位大大, Infrasturcture股的 PE多少为合理?
为何Infrastructure股的PE偏高? 是否是因为现在是牛市?那么在淡市是他们的合理PE为多少?请各位大大赐教。谢谢。 |
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发表于 8-2-2007 09:49 PM
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