Megan的成绩单

GuShen

Harimau 于 30-9-2004 10:50  说 :
Megan 和 MOX 是邻居来的，就在 Summit USJ 附近的工业区，Subang Jaya 邮局附近。得空不妨去看看。呵呵呵...

[ Last edited by Harimau on 30-9-2004 at 10:52 AM ]

Let's us cari investor make form a group and we go visit.

怎么突然间好像很多人要卖？？
基本上，现在megan只是债务高
相对的risk也提高（risk这个东西没有得好算的，只是看你可不可以接受。。。）
但可以看到的是他的生意也越做越好

做个调查

你们是自己analyse过这份quaterly report
觉得megan真的不太适合待在你的portfolio里了
才决定要卖掉手上的货

还是

因为看了这张帖子
所以，决定要卖出了

fcthow

糊涂 于 30-9-2004 07:36 AM  说 :


你对资产表的分析造诣很强，理论也很好。
你的帖子让我学了不少阅读资产表的方法，糊涂真的佩服你这小小的投资者。

你太夸奖了，其实你的分析也不差。。。。

fcthow

然头 于 30-9-2004 11:03 AM  说 :


fcthow，你是major in什么科目的？？

accouting and management

fcthow

fcthow 于 30-9-2004 01:30 AM  说 :
大家还是把目光放在负债，因为megan的gearing在balance date已经到了1.73高风险水平。

昨晚我说megan的balance date gearing有1.73水平。其实，我的故事还没讲完。。。。。

我不是megan的持股者也不是他的未来投资者，所以希望我给的立场是中立的。

megan的负债问题确实是头痛的。megan收购mjc是以低价收购，表面上是件好事，其实megan获得的discount是要用来offset mjc的庞大利息开销，所以大家要明白世上是没有免费的午餐的。megan在八月份进行了附加股计划，大家都误解这笔钱将会用来偿还债务。很可惜的，根据他们的计划书，只有其中两千万是用来偿还债务，大部分的钱是用来进行业务扩展。附加股计划后，113M会注入shareholder equity,负债则减少两千万，所以gearing就下回到1.16. 有一点要注意的，虽然gearing下降了，可是附加股计划可能会冲谈公司的roe.

megan是可以从他的生意收到的钱拿来还债，不过我不明白为什么她的trade receivable如此偏高，高达两亿。

还好，megan是成长很快的公司，如果未来赚到的钱能够还债，那么负债的问题可以放松一些。

[ Last edited by fcthow on 30-9-2004 at 12:04 PM ]

dadi

糊涂 于 30-9-2004 08:10  说 :
dadi，
恕我直言，你太过于主观的相信数据了。
这样的分析法可非常的危险噢。你少算了些东西比如产业环境的改变，生产技术世代交替等。别忘了这世界常有物极必反的现象，你既然算得出Best Case，那 ...

谢谢糊涂的指点，说实在除了债务增加以外，我看不到MEGAN在那方面出现倒退的现象，盈利每年在成长，营业额也取得爆炸性成长。

过去历史显示Q1的市场会比较疲弱，所以2005Q1的 INVENTORIES 增加是正常的。而REVENUE回退也是正常的。
对时代会改变，但是过去5年前人们已经说CD－R将取代 FLOOPY DISK 但是到今天 DISKETT 还是在很多地方普遍的在用着，今天DVD－R 说将取代 CD－R 那么还需要多就的时间呢？
DVD－R要普及首要条件就是 DVD－R烧录机的价钱必须大众化。在这里有多少位
朋友的家里有DVD－R烧录机？
还有一样重点就是MEGAN的同一部机器能选择性生产CD－R或DVD－R
这季的MARGIN高回主要是他们注重生产DVD－R 减少CD－R的生产。（也许这原因REVENUE少了，INVENTORIES 确增加了〕因为DVD－R利润比较好！


每只股票都有其长短的地方MEGAN缺点就是债务高，股票流量大。



PS：如果有一天MEGAN的盈利不进而退那时就是我卖出的时候了。以前的WCT也是高负债，但是在98年风暴到来它依然安然渡过成就了今天股价。如果当年人们因为它的债务高而忽略了它的成长不知道他们会否感到可惜。
糊涂兄每个人的口味不同～！所以看见的东西也不同！

[ Last edited by dadi on 30-9-2004 at 05:03 PM ]

糊涂

你说得对，青菜豆腐各有所好。

这只是我的意见，只供参考。
我并不要求大家都认同我的看法，
只要大家都不啬把自己的看法提出，大家互相研究研究就好。。

糊涂

Harimau 于 30-9-2004 10:50 AM  说 :
Megan 和 MOX 是邻居来的，就在 Summit USJ 附近的工业区，Subang Jaya 邮局附近。得空不妨去看看。呵呵呵...

虎兄，
就算某天你到Intel工厂看看，也一样看不出它的政策究竟哪儿出了差错而导致其invetory增加与profit margin减少。虽然Intel的CEO在业绩报告后承认在业务执行方面出了问题，但身为基层的我却一点都察觉不到耶。直至业务报告后，检讨后-〉我们才发现问题的存在。

Megan的问题现在应该还显现不出来，但再来一次经济风暴它可未必抵挡得了。。我觉得其管理层对于它的产品太过于乐观了（不断广充其业务）。。我曾读过台湾某些光碟/记忆体厂商的光荣史，再渐渐走入没落。。这样的情况与现在的Megan很相似，但怎么Megan就是好像没学会似的？不解。。。。

[ Last edited by 糊涂 on 30-9-2004 at 05:32 PM ]

葉孤一座城

我是在高点0。435时买进的 嗯 那时的我冲动了
可是 我还是觉得我的目标价0。8是可以达到的
我有信心

呵呵，，我也很惨，在150-168绑了好多货，现在时常会自己讲话了

gam

dadi 于 30-9-2004 04:37 PM  说 :


谢谢糊涂的指点，说实在除了债务增加以外，我看不到MEGAN在那方面出现倒退的现象，盈利每年在成长，营业额也取得爆炸性成长。

过去历史显示Q1的市场会比较疲弱，所以2005Q1的 INVENTORIES 增加是正常的。而 ...

电脑硬体如果要跌价的时候， 会以你想不到的速度来跌的。如果dvd-rw 机来到200 多元的话，很多人就可以买了。我已有超过一半的朋友在用了。

fujishu

糊涂 于 30-9-2004 05:29 PM  说 :


虎兄，
就算某天你到Intel工厂看看，也一样看不出它的政策究竟哪儿出了差错而导致其invetory增加与profit margin减少。虽然Intel的CEO在业绩报告后承认在业务执行方面出了问题，但身为基层的我却 ...

电脑产品最禁忌屯货，这是我的工作经验。
看看一年前和一年后的价钱就知道。

tomteohyk

gam 于 1-10-2004 22:22  说 :



电脑硬体如果要跌价的时候， 会以你想不到的速度来跌的。如果dvd-rw 机来到200 多元的话，很多人就可以买了。我已有超过一半的朋友在用了。

以2004年financial report分析
１。其实不只是生意在Malaysia 面对激烈竞争，而生意在singapore面对更激烈竞争。
请看在segment business
                Malaysia                   Singapore
         April2004年     2003年         2004年    2003年
Revenue     476，430   217，078       130，155
（RM＇000）
Segment      49，685    44，020         8，691
result
Operating      10.4％    20.2％         6.67％
profit margin

请看它的OPM（malaysia） 只是这么少，从20.2％跌下到10.4％。
再看Singapore的OPM 更少，只是6.67％
还没有计算nett profit margin.......
Although sales is increase, doesn't mean company is really growing.
看来未来Megan生意面对非常挑战.....
非常担心............
我们再看Balance Sheet 的 financial cost及 PBT（必须减到 negatif goodwill ）
financial cost 占PBT多少百分率？
12，982
－－－ x 100％＝ 22.25％
58，332
意思是每个RM1.00赚（PBT）来付给大约RM0.22于financial cost
Borrowing 更不必说了。请看Note to financial statement。
我相信Megan他必须acquire other company来penetrate 其他市场。

如果megan它自己穿透新市场， 相信他的administration expenses
将增加.
(employ more staff, establish new office, promosion,.....)
如何减少公司的borrowing，唯一方法是继续发出private replacement or dispose own property.
对我们小股东公平吗？

请记得MJC 的一位大股东是Megan的股东。
他是 YEO WEE SIONG 才34 age。
用民众的公司（Megan Berhad）买进自己私人公司 （MJC）。
对我们小股东公平吗？
谁赚得黑暗钱？
肯定是YEO WEE SIONG及Dato Dr Haji Mohd Adam Bin Che Harun赚得不少。
自己私人公司 （MJC）的负债可不少。Beware.


58332

Harimau

如果我是老板的话，我也会在现在利息低的时候大量借钱来扩展业务，好过将来利息变高的时候才来借。银行肯借钱给我，证明我的体质还可以借那么多的钱，毕竟银行是最怕风险的，体质不好保证一块钱也难借到。

不过 Megan 的大股东确实有点问题，每次他们要自己 private placement 的时候就会通过丢股票把股价压低，之后又把它炒高，然后又在高价丢股票，又来一个 private placement 拿便宜货。

遇到 Megan 这样的公司，确实需要“与庄共舞”的策略。呵呵呵...

PS: 你们去 Subang 那边看看，不就知道他存的 inventory 是什么了？好过在这边瞎猜啊！

[ Last edited by Harimau on 2-10-2004 at 09:52 PM ]

tomteohyk

megan 是用 发新股的 方式 来收购 mjc 的吧?

就是 以股换股 的意思? 对吗? (我印象中是这样的)


至于存货的问题， 其实可以根本不必理!!(况且我们不是行家)
看看 2004 的报告.
inventory  30000000  = x
revenue   585400000  = y

y/x= 19.5 倍

X   X   X   X
还有 糊涂兄误解我的意思了:
举个例子吧:
假设，假设，假设。。。。。。
假如黄金将会 起到 US 420, 那么，趁现在囤积 黄金， 是不是明智之举呢?
日圆将涨， 趁现在屯货。。。。也是一例。
当然以上例子都是假设。

xxxxxxxxxx
赞同老虎的 "心态".

另外
我想要知道的是 megan 的机器 是不是 24 小时 开着的?

xxxxxxxxx
注: 我已经卖掉了 megan ,不过还是很关心它.

gross profit      depreciation
2000    19410000            5650000
2001    30000000           12194000
2002    39610000           18310000
2003    56190000           36210000
2004    79070000           57830000

答案是， 我们根本不用理他的 "机器折旧"。
2004 的 depreciation 的暴涨， 我的原因有下:
1。新加坡的厂 拖累 ， 有点 "败家子" 的感觉， 只会吃不会做。
2。cd-r 机器的 贬值。

我觉得一 两 年内是好事， 因为 depreciation 的 "能量", 已经耗尽。



公司管理层买机器， 一定有他们的原因的， 只要，买机器的钱 ，
5年的时间能够赚回来，就 ok 了 。

当然 科技日新月异， 过去5年 并不能 推测未来 5年。


心态:
要多观察， 多到 pasar malam 走走。
关心 台湾， 大陆 的行情。
这是 klse8k 老虎 冷眼 的方法。

要是我们只会局限在 roe p/e 上， 很危险， 尤其是这种 科技的行业。

Superman

AmWatch
Megan Media Holdings (RM1.36) Hold
1QFY05 Results - In Line

Comment: Megan Media Holdings' 1QFY05 results were within our expectations and consensus estimates. Despite the 7% sequential dip in revenue, net profit rose 13% QoQ following improved product mix, translation gain from consolidating its Singapore operations and better associate contribution. Annualised net profit appears to be 12% above our forecast, but earnings could moderate going forward as average selling prices fall and depreciation charges and resin costs rise. Revenue would have been higher if not for the sharp erosion in selling prices. Despite the added capacity in 4QFY04 and 1QFY05 and near full production run, turnover slipped 7% due lower average selling prices. Average selling prices for CD-R were 11%- 16% lower from early this year while average selling prices of DVDR have declined between 33% and 42% from early this year to US$0.70-0.80 per unit now. Compared to a year ago, prices of CDR and DVD-R have fallen 36% and 65%, respectively.

Nevertheless, operating margin improved to 22.3% from 16.4% as more DVD-Rs were sold. Product mix has changed as DVD-R capacity and production picked up during the quarter. Megan started the quarter with CD-R and DVD-R monthly production of 13.5m and 5.4m but ended the quarter with capacity of 9m DVDRs monthly while CD-R capacity remained the same. Recall that margin for DVD-R is double that of CD-R. In fact, as production remained close to full capacity, Megan could have reported a much higher operating margin. But steep erosion in average selling prices and rising resin prices erased some of the gains. Resin prices were 19% higher at about RM7.80 per kg currently from an average of RM6.55 last year.

Megan's gearing ratio rose to 1.7x as net debt rose to RM442m (gross debt was RM457m) by end-July 04 compared to end-April 04's net debt of RM352m (gross debt of RM389m) and net gearing of 1.4x. We believe it spent approximately RM116m in investment/ fixed assets during the quarter. But interest coverage ratio improved to 7.8x in 1QFY05 from 6.6x in 4QFY04.

Given the strong demand for DVD-R, Megan is adding another 14 production lines by the end of FY05 to boost its DVD-R capacity to 17.4m pieces per month. This is expected to cost the group RM270m to be financed largely from its US$40m facility secured from DBS Bank Ltd, circa RM20m proceeds from its proposed private placements and internal funds.
We have reviewed our earnings forecast recently following our visit to the company (AmWatch dated 16 September 2004). Hence, we are maintaining our net profit and fully diluted EPS of RM44.8m and 17.1 sen for FY05 and RM48.2m and 18.4 sen for FY06. We remain concerned over the steep erosion in average selling prices and Megan's high gearing ratio. Management expects another 28% drop in DVD-R prices to US$0.50 by early next year.
With net margin of less than 10%, a larger-than-expected fall in selling prices, say by an additional 5%, could wipe off 40% of net profit. Given its capex plan, net gearing could reach as high as 2.0x in the interim (before moderating to 1.2x). In addition, we believe resin prices would likely be on an uptrend in light of rising oil prices. Overall, Megan's risk profile has risen sharply, in our opinion. Hence, despite the low PER valuation, we advice investors to wait and see for signs of moderation in average selling prices erosion.

Maintain Hold. (Ng Yong Yin, CFA)

tomteohyk

tekyong朋友，


你误解我的意思了。
Segment results 不是 inventory。
其实segment result 是以 total sales segment minus expenses 包括（distribution cost， cost of sales 及
administration expenses）得到的figure.

我为什么要写segment malaysia 及 singapore 给大家看？？

目的是megan berhad不应该收购MIJ这间公司因为
第一，MIJ是负责管理 singapore市场来卖CD等等
     before 收购MIJ这间公司，segment business singapore show ０  figure

第二，请看单单singapore 的 operation profit margin 只带来6％profit before taxes and finance cost。
记得还minus financial cost and taxes
就算singapore的OPM ＝10％，已经非常差。
假如你有曾经做过生意话，你就明白一切.................

我认认这收购MIJ这间公司简直掩盖公司赚钱能力日益差。

第三，borrowing MIJ这间公司相当大，自己可以检查。
第四，谁得到好处。肯定的是这两个瓜YEO WEE SIONG及Dato Dr Haji Mohd Adam Bin Che Harun赚得不少。


还有请看page30 financial report megan berhad，有写
＂connection with the above acqusition， MJCS Berhad， 30 A2003， enter into conditional share sale agreement with
Yeo Wee Siong， a Director of company and MJCS， for the disposal of 8，624，999 ordinary share company representing MJCS＇s entireequity interest
the company 同Yee Wee Siong for a total cash consideration RM18，198，000 RM2.11 share ..............＂
他们用现金来.............................
即使我认为发新股的方式，请问对我们小股东公平吗？

如果想要提高net profit， 才能还borrowing。
换句来说，想要提高net profit，必须提高sales 及cost saving
问题是在这里。
将来megan所发出dividend会比往年少很多。
例子：
dividen 2004比dividen 2003少很多。
如何提高sales，关键在这里。
将来会Acquire existing company more easily to penetrate 其他市场......................

基本上，他们是不可能用net profit 赚到来还 all borrowing。
单单finance cost已经吃倒around 20％PBT。
问题是interest 这么high，如何解结。
唯一方法是每年发出private placement give fund investor

我忍认Harimau 看法 关于“与庄共舞”的策略。

糊涂

再看这一篇：

Megan Media Bhd (rm1.36) : 1QFY04/05 Results Above Expectations MARKET PERFORM

Megan Media? (Megan) 1QFY04/05 results came in above our and market expectations. Yoy, net profit was up by +108.9% on the back of a +82.1% increase in turnover, boosted by the contribution from MJC (Singapore) Pte Ltd, which was acquired in Jan 2004.

Overall EBIT margins improved to 11.5% in 1QFY04/05, from 10.1% in 1QFY04/04 and the 9-year low of 8.9% in 4QFY04/04 but still below the historical range of 12-26% recorded since the company started its data storage business in 1995.

Balance sheet reflected the company? aggressive capacity efforts as net gearing ratio rose further to 1.68x at end-July 2004, substantially above the 0.4-0.8x range recorded in the past two years. Account receivables, inventory holdings and account payable continued to increase from end-Apr 2004 levels.

Going forward, aggressive capacity expansion will remain the key strategy of the company. Megan aims to add another 8 lines by end-FY04/05 to further increase its production capacity to 13-14m disks/month.

However, erosion in average selling price is a downside risk given the rapid capacity expansion by industry peers and a moderating global economic growth. Already, the two Taiwanese leading disk makers have reported double-digit yoy decline in their August sales. It is believed that ASP for CD-R has fallen by another 41% in the past three months.

Current valuations at FY04/04-06 PERs 5-7x reflected high risk business prospects in the medium term and in line with the prevailing valuations fetched by its Taiwanese peers. Maintain MARKET PERFORM.

RESULTS REVIEW

Megan Media? (Megan) 1QFY04/05 results above our expectations.

1QFY04/05 sales of RM203.7m accounted for 34.8% of our full year forecast of RM586.0m while net profit of RM14.3m was 33.9% and 26.7% of our and consensus full year forecasts of RM42.2 and RM52.5m respectively.

MJC(S) contribution boosted 1QFY04/05 performance. Yoy, net profit was up by +108.9% on the back of a +82.1% increase in turnover. The strong yoy growth in 1QFY04/05 performance was mainly boosted by the contribution from MJC (Singapore) Pte Ltd, which was acquired in Jan 2004. For the three months to 31 July 2004, the Singapore operation contributed RM90.7m or 44.5% to total revenue and RM6.6m or 35.8% to total pre-tax profit. In terms of profit margins, the Malaysian operations recorded higher pre-tax profit (PBT) margins of 9.8% (1QFY04/04: 7.8%) compared to its Singapore division (7.2%).

Profit margins improved although still at historical low levels. Overall EBIT margins improved to 11.5% in 1QFY04/05, from 10.1% in 1QFY04/04 and the 9-year low of 8.9% in 4QFY04/04. However, profit margins were still below the historical range of 12-26% recorded since the company started its data storage business in 1995 (refer to Chart 1).

FINANCIALS

Borrowings continued to increase, reflecting its aggressive expansion programme. Total borrowings rose by another RM68.1m to RM457.2m while cash reserves depleted from RM37.2m at end-Apr 2004 to RM14.9m at end-July 2004. This thus raised net gearing ratio from 1.42x at end-Apr 2004 to 1.68x at end-July 2004, substantially above the 0.4-0.8x range recorded in the past two years. The increased borrowings were mainly due to 1) the incorporation of MJCS?borrowings following the completion of the acquisition in Dec 2003; and 2) funds raised for its capacity expansion plan. To recap, MJCS has RM139m in borrowings or a gross gearing of 0.5x and it is targeted to eventually lower to RM120m.

Higher working capital. Account receivables rose +12.4% from RM190.0m (79 days) at end-Apr 2004 to RM213.5m (96 days) at end-July 2004. Inventory holdings rose from RM29.4m to RM39.7m during the period.

OUTLOOK

Aggressive capacity expansion will remain the key strategy of the company. The main rationale to boost its production capacity is to reach economies of scale in production and to enhance its market position. After adding 9 new lines in FY04/04 and boosted its production capacity by +64.3% or 4.5m pieces/month to 19 production lines or 11.5m disks/month (5.5m CD-R disks plus 6m DVD-R disks) currently, Megan aims to add another 8 lines by end-FY04/05 to further increase its production capacity to 13-14m disks/month.

However, at this stage, the company? production capacity of 11.5m units/month still appears small compared to the global capacity of 1,200m CD-R disks/month and 230m DVD-R disks/month as well as the leading Taiwanese optical storage disk makers like Ritek, CMC and Prodisc Technology.

Erosion in average selling price is a downside risk. Rapid capacity expansion by industry peers disc manufacturers in Taiwan, China and India in the past two years may result in excess capacity and fast erosion in average selling price (ASP), if demand growth is not keeping pace with capacity expansion. Already, there are concerns over slowing demand growth due to moderating growth of global economy. Based on their respective filings to the Taiwan Stock Exchange, the two global leading disk makers have posted sharp yoy decline in August. Ritek's monthly sales in August fell by 41% yoy and CMC Magnetics' monthly sales tumbled 26% yoy (the largest percentage drop since June-04). Meanwhile, it is believed that ASP for CD-R has fallen by another 41% in the past three months from US$0.17/unit to US$0.10/unit currently. ASP for DVD-R was projected to fall by 30-40% yoy to US$0.60 by end-CY04.

Maintain FY04/04-06 earnings forecasts. Despite the strong 1QFY04/05 performance, we are keeping our FY04/05-07 net profit forecasts at RM42.2m, RM45.5m and RM49.6m. FY04/05-07 EPS projections, after adjusting for the enlarged share capital of 204.5m (ex-bonus and rights issues) are at 20.6sen, 22.3sen and 24.3sen respectively. Our forecasts translate into an average annual growth of +19.3% in earnings but EPS growth rate is lower at +4.8% due to the dilution from new share issues. Indicative fair value remains at RM1.30/share, or at 5.8x FY04/06 PER.

Current valuations at FY04/04-06 PERs 5-7x reflected the high risk business prospects in the medium term and in line with the prevailing valuations fetched by its Taiwanese peers, Ritek and CMC. Hence, we are maintaining our MARKET PERFORM rating on Megan Media.

你误解我的意思了。
Segment results 不是 inventory。
其实segment result 是以 total sales segment minus expenses 包括（distribution cost， cost of sales 及
administration expenses）得到的figure.

我为什么要写segment malaysia 及 singapore 给大家看？？

我这句话:
至于存货的问题， 其实可以根本不必理!!(况且我们不是行家)
看看 2004 的报告.
inventory  30000000  = x
revenue   585400000  = y

y/x= 19.5 倍

不是讲给你听的啦~~~
是讲给大家听的

也许下次我要加上
x x x x x x x x x 分段处理。


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we believe resin prices would likely be on an uptrend in light of rising oil prices

原来，树脂的价格，是和 油价有挂钩的。
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[ Last edited by tekyong on 3-10-2004 at 12:52 AM ]