MEGAN 怎麼回事?

psrngurney 于 6-7-2004 09:53 AM  说 :

才3000lots你把它買去就能過哢！

可惜我的子彈上個月全都拿去射PBBANK 了


p/s:聽說PBBANK 九月有股息....聽在BANK工作的職員說的...

[ Last edited by guikianhaw on 6-7-2004 at 10:24 AM ]

tanhin

MEGAN在THE MAMAK STALL 有很多资料。

tanhin 于 6-7-2004 10:47 AM  说 :
MEGAN在THE MAMAK STALL 有很多资料。

THE MAMAK STALL ? 哪裡?

tanhin

guikianhaw 于 6-7-2004 10:49 AM  说 :

THE MAMAK STALL ? 哪裡?

http://forums.delphiforums.com/my-forums

tanhin 于 6-7-2004 01:43 PM  说 :

http://forums.delphiforums.com/my-forums

找不到....乭以說詳細一點嗎? 謝謝

tanhin

你CLICK the webpage and click log in(use my name),then click show me the money then click start or messages and click megan,以后才register,用我的先。

tanhin 于 6-7-2004 02:12 PM  说 :
你CLICK the webpage and click log in(use my name),then click show me the money then click start or messages and click megan,以后才register,用我的先。

謝謝, 看到了

那依照他們這樣說, 那我們不是應盡快把這只垂死的千里馬丟掉?

tanhin

看看先，但前景堪忧，我没买。

轉貼過來啦, 有些人看不到

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From:  nm (MrNoMore)
To:  ALL   (1 of 15)   

let me start a new thread on this one..

the last i wrote about it, i made the following remarks:

Quote:

i think one have to understand the very basic economics of a business. In a business when u have declining profit margins, this means u have the very basic problem. U have problem with the profitability which cud be resulted by either competition or the product itself. Either way, u are in trouble.

Now in an even worse case, if the company if the problem is due to competition, and the company decides to tackle the issue head on, the company takes on its competition by reducing margin and increasing sales. Now normally, the increase sales shud able to offset the declining volume but such strategy requires strong cash balances. Meaning, if one tackles this problem by borrowing funds to generate the sales, one is taking on very risky ground....

And if we reflect this issue to MM, which is a technology based industry, the risk is immense since technology is ever changing. Look at it, they are developing paper CDs already. And if it does become a hit, could u immagine MM position considering that it had also spend capex in gigantic porportions in installing new production lines? Will MM recuperate its capex money?

now coupled with other issues... such as poor corporate governance (in the case of the sale of MJC to MM).... i find this very conclusive as a stock with just too many flags dangling around.

So as they common and truly logical reasoning is why take the chance? Why wait for an accident to happen? The rewards just does not justify the risks involved.

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From:  nm (MrNoMore)    Jun-29 8:12 pm  
To:  ALL   (7 of 15)   

lol... lol...

look at the optimistic article by the Edge

Megan Media almost doubles to RM50m

Megan Media Holdings Bhd’s net profit almost doubled to RM50.76 million in the year ended April 30, 2004 from RM28.66 million in FY2003, on the back of a 170% rise in revenue to RM585.43 million from RM217.08 million.  [ Yes the sales increased a lot but the net profit of 50.76 million included a NEGATIVE GOODWILL of 12.751 million. Minus this out, u get net profit of 38.009 million ]

Its earnings per share improved to 61.61 sen from 37.93 sen. [ Oiii... this eps based on how many shares??? ]

For the final quarter, its revenue rose by 240% or RM155.3 million compared to a year ago. The company attributed the better performance to higher demand for its CD-Rs, DVD-Rs, CD-RWs, DVD-RWs and audio tapes.

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From:  Mic21 (Michiel21)     Jun-29 9:42 pm  
To:  nm (MrNoMore)    (8 of 15)   

I had a quick look at the 4Q results:

- turnover increased incredibly, but margins went down so much .....

"Group revenue for the quarter under review has increased by RM155.3 million or 240% compared to the corresponding quarter in the previous year.  The better performance was mainly attributable to the expansion in the production capacity to meet the increase in the demand of CD-Rs and DVD-Rs and an increase in trading activities, in particular for audio tapes, CD-RW's and DVD-RW's. The Group's profit before tax for the quarter under review has decreased by RM0.5 million or 4% as compared to the corresponding quarter in the previous year.  This was mainly due to lower profit margin."

- debt has ballooned so much (389m!!!!), that even after the rights issue (114m) debts will stay very high. The amount is not even enough to cover half of the short term borrowings (267m).

- Trade receivables have ballooned from 57m to 190m!

Managements forecast: "Barring any significant change in the economic condition and other unforeseen circumstances, the Group is confident of achieving continuing profitability in the year 2004 with the continued support of it's existing and new customers."

Not the most positive I have ever seen, better are "higher than last years results" or "roughly the same", they only expect the company to have positive earnings, but what about the huge acquistion that was supposed to bring in much profit.....?

Many red flags, but who knows, may be they can pull it off. Not for the faint hearted (that includes me ....), this one.

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From:  nm (MrNoMore)    Jun-29 9:54 pm  
To:  Mic21 (Michiel21)    (9 of 15)  


u see the huge acquisition...  well....

1. it created the huge debts...

2. the trade receivables - i would assume that it came from the acquisition.

3. compare the acquisition amount and the contribution from the acqusition. does it make sense?

and when u consider the fact that the acqusition Megan made is a company that belongs to the boss, doesn't it smell real bad?

and lastly... the rights issue. Effectively the owners of Megan had dumped their hopeless company into the hands of the investors.

How do i rate? Well i had insisted that this one WAS bad for ages.... clear as daylight!!

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From:  nm (MrNoMore)    Jun-29 10:21 pm  
To:  Dino2114   (10 of 15)  

Quote:

   4) People who buy based on the analysts' positive outlook may still wonder why   
     the counter's share price and operation performance deteriote.

One of the great advice given by investment guru, the late Philip Fisher, was that one should exit a stock once the fundamentals of the stock starts to deteriorate. Or as Warren Buffett says he would hold on to a stock for many years as long as the economics of the business didn't change dramatically for the worse.

It is such a great common sense advice.

Look at Megan. Take two years back. Fiscal year 2002. Megan reported sales of 139.078 million. Net Profit was 23.807 million. And that is a nice profit margin of 17.03%. Now if anyone asked me back then, i would have to agree vert much that Megan would have been a great investment back then in 2002.

But look at it now. Things have changed. Folks need to realise this factor. What used to be good can change. Good can become bad. This is life.

So for fiscal year 2004 (unaudited numbers), Megan reported sales turnover of 585.431 million BUT its net profit (minus out that negative goodwill) is only 38.009 million. A net profit margin of only 6.49%.

Isn;t this clear that the economics of the business changed dramatically for the worse? A company whose business economics was enabling the company to generate net profit of around 17% has DETERIORATED so much that the company is only generating a net profit of 6.4%.

And i am only talking about the earnings performance. What about the debts issue? The trade receivables that practically exploded.....

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From:  nm (MrNoMore)    Jun-30 6:44 pm  
To:  ALL   (13 of 15)   

Ahh... RHB's comment on Megan was posted today.

Found some interesting comments.

1. Industry sources are projecting ASP to fall by another 30-40% by end-CY04.

ASP (Average selling Price for the cds). Now one has seen Megan's margin going down the drain. And if this ASP is to fall by another 30-40%... ahem!!!!

2. It makes u wonder.. this company management KNOWS that the margin is going down the hill... and yet it still insists on the aggressive capex. Does it make sense? Isn't it the equivalenet of banging one's head on a wall?

It has added 9 new lines in FY04/04, boosted its production capacity

3. And RHB's comment...

Fine-tuned FY04/05-07 earnings forecasts. We are trimming our FY04/05 net profit forecast by –6% from RM44.9m to RM42.2m, reflecting the worse-than-expected ASP erosion. FY04/06 earnings forecast is raised by +8.6% from RM41.9m to RM45.5m, as we expect the more aggressive capacity plan to reduce its outsourcing activities and will thus lead to more meaningful earnings growth.

the bugger see all these problems with Megan. Earnings forecast downgraded & financial issues... and yet the bugger has a MARKET PERFORM on it!!

ahemm

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From:  Mic21 (Michiel21)     Jun-30 9:14 pm  
To:  nm (MrNoMore)    (14 of 15)   

"Earnings forecast downgraded & financial issues... and yet the bugger has a MARKET PERFORM on it!!"

Hahaha, too scared to use the "S..." word .....

But their write up was quite good, RHB often one of the best of the brokers.

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From:  nm (MrNoMore)    Jun-30 9:27 pm  
To:  Mic21 (Michiel21)    (15 of 15)   

yes it was indeed very bizare because in that write-up, RHB did states most of the issues, like the ASP going down, debts and trade receivables ballooning and then they even re-adjust their earnings forecast for Megan...

but somehow...

i just dun get it... they give Megan a Market Performer...

also... side track a bit.... Jaya Tiasa also showed the same issues... better performance.... but .... like Megan it had a rising loans issue..... however, due to poor prospect due to lower housing start-ups in Japan (u gotta say Megan has a poor prospect too - due to lower ASP, rite), RHB bugger gave Jaya Tiasa a big underperform rating!! Well i have no problem with it really but isn't Megan facing almost the same issues (although different industry)....

TREX

guikianhaw,

TQ.

其實,並沒有任何可靠的論據可以說明MEGAN的前景 好 或是 不好

大家都只是預測, 我覺得各花入各眼啦

你看好時,它偏偏表現不好, 你不看好, 它卻又表現亮麗  

tanhin

TREX 于 6-7-2004 03:18 PM  说 :
guikianhaw,

TQ.

Have to thank me alsolah haha!

Austin82

guikianhaw 于 6-7-2004 03:22 PM  说 :
其實,並沒有任何可靠的論據可以說明MEGAN的前景 好 或是 不好
大家都只是預測, 我覺得各花入各眼啦
你看好時,它偏偏表現不好, 你不看好, 它卻又表現亮麗  

那么你觉得 MEGAN 会是千里马吗？

tanhin

你也GO THE MAMAK STALL读读先。

Austin82 于 6-7-2004 04:28 PM  说 :

那么你觉得 MEGAN 会是千里马吗？

不知道,

說它是千里馬的人不是我

psrngurney

guikianhaw 于 6-7-2004 16:31  说 :


不知道,

說它是千里馬的人不是我

這隻是万里馬來的！你們放心好了，不要去亂聽別人亂亂講！
聽了又是不好睡的一天！！

TREX

tanhin 于 6-7-2004 04:24 PM  说 :


Have to thank me alsolah haha!

OK, OK... 谢谢! Thanx 4...... Tanhin gohgoh! osolah 哈哈。

tanhin

哈哈，我们不是别人，也是CARI 会员。

其实根本没有事，那几个人有可能是megan 抄家.
有些根本不懂，说什么 debt增加。。。。。。(因为收购mjc,debt才会增加)
没错，profit margin 减少，但是，生产一样东西，不是要去预算的吗?就是因为他们认为有赚，他们才会去做。

听听老虎

我不想多说。看看 Megan 的历史：

1994 成立。从事塑胶业
1996 生产 3.5" 磁碟和录影带
1999 生产 CDR 和 DVDR
2000 在二板上市
2002 转换到主板

http://chinese.cari.com.my/myfor ... =112010&fpage=3

Austin82

Company Name : MEGAN MEDIA HOLDINGS BERHAD  
Stock Name  : MEGAN
Date Announced : 05/07/2004

Subject : MEGAN - NOTICE OF RIGHTS ENTITLEMENT

Contents :

RENOUNCEABLE RIGHTS ISSUE OF 71,141,400 NEW ORDINARY SHARES OF RM1.00 EACH IN MEGAN MEDIA HOLDINGS BERHAD ("MMHB") ("MMHB SHARES") ("RIGHTS SHARES") TOGETHER WITH 71,141,400 FREE DETACHABLE WARRANTS 2004/2009 ("WARRANTS") AT AN ISSUE PRICE OF RM1.60 PER RIGHTS SHARE, PAYABLE IN FULL UPON ACCEPTANCE ON THE BASIS OF FOUR (4) RIGHTS SHARES AND FOUR (4) FREE WARRANTS FOR EVERY FIVE (5) EXISTING MMHB SHARES HELD PRIOR TO THE BONUS ISSUE AT 5.00 P.M. ON 30 JUNE 2004.

Kindly be advised of the following :

1) The Rights commence of trading : [ 8 July 2004 ]

2) The Date of Despatch of the Prospectus and Provisional Allotment Letter of Offer :
[ 6 July 2004 ]

3) The last day and time for Acceptance, Renunciation and Payment :
[ 2 August 2004 @ 5:00pm ]

4) The Rights cease quotation : [ 21 July 2004 ]

The Stock Short Name, Number and ISIN Code [ MEGAN-OR, 7101OR and MYL7101OR001 ] respectively