【CAPITALA 5099 交流专区】（前名 AIRASIA ）

天龙明王

是hor....赶快删掉贴

peng01

BRIEF-HSBC cuts Air Asia target price to RM 0.60

AirAsia Falls After Quarterly Loss, Analyst Downgrade (Update2)

[ 本帖最后由 peng01 于 1-12-2008 02:56 PM 编辑 ]

K男

原帖由 peng01 于 1-12-2008 02:55 PM 发表
BRIEF-HSBC cuts Air Asia target price to RM 0.60

AirAsia Falls After Quarterly Loss, Analyst Downgrade (Update2)

这招够狠--面对没有股息的股票首要作的就是不断使自己的持股股价处在低点以便在大起时换取可观赚幅回酬。。。以上讯息在告诉你BRIEF-HSBC打算大举收购AA的低价票！！！


http://kelvinliew.pixnet.net/blog/

软趴趴的说

peng01

AIRASIA FEES TO AIRASIA-X RISES

CLASSIFICATION: MOUS, CONTRACTS, AWARDS, CONCESSIONS
TYPE: Business/MOU/Concessions/Contracts
01 December 2008

AIRASIA FEES TO AIRASIA-X RISES AIRASIA reported Nov 1, 2008 that its Services Agreement to AIRASIA-X had been extended for a further period of 12 months effective Nov 1, 2008 with new inclusions for a sum of RM43m inclusive of a 10% mark-up.  

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AIRASIA's FUEL SPECULATION BINGE ENDS WITH 3QFY08 LOSS OF RM465M

CLASSIFICATION: ACCOUNTING/AUDIT NOTIFICATION/ANALYSIS & BUSINESS PROJECTIONS
TYPE: Short Analysis / Reviews
01 December 2008

AIRASIA's FUEL SPECULATION BINGE ENDS WITH 3QFY08 LOSS OF RM465M By J Vong AIRASIA's investor relations department has been less loud with its releases in the past 2 quarters typifying almost third-rate-run listed companies in respect of informing their investors promptly and clearly.

This was, of course, not lost on the small investor who had been piqued for the last 3 quarters following some research house's alert that AIRASIA had taken bold forward selling positions in oil options at USD92.50 per barrel. Oil prices, of course, obligingly rose to USD147 per barrel to upset AIRASIA's 'hedging' plans.

NEW DEFINITION OF HEDGING
When AIRASIA realised that it may have gotten in at the wrong end of oil price movements, the Company announced that the oil options 'selling' was for 'hedging' purposes and that losses could be minimised through a reversal of positions.

The Airline claims of its fuel hedging (which is for consumption) and losing money in a price uptrend is definitely unusual. That points to speculation rather than hedging.

TONY FERNANDEZ, the CEO, must come on record of having the distinction of trying to redefine the meaning of 'hedging'. Hedging as we were taught in university meant the buying or selling forward of positions where there was certainty of consumption or output.

AIRASIA is well known for its forward sales of airline seats for cash. So 'hedging' would have meant the forward buying of it required oil positions which any small investor would have thought to be 'smart' and 'safe'. Obviously, AIRASIA 'sold' forward oil positions and turned itself into an commodities speculator instead of being just an airline operator.

So 3QE Sep 2008 Loss of RM465m must be something of a record of sorts (wiping off the entire YTD earnings plus more) for which the CEO must bear full responsibility.

3QE SEP 2008 FINANCIALS SEES SHARPLY HIGHER REVENUES
For 3QE Sep 2008, AIRASIA recorded sharply higher Revenues of RM658m against RM461m in 3QFY07. Gross Profit from Operations was RM103m or 15.6% on Revenue against RM166m or 36% in 3QFY07.

Profit from Operations dropped to RM91m or 13.8% from RM145m or 31% in 3QFY07. 3Q-FY08 reflected the huge impact of rising oil prices on AIRASIA's operations. But despite that, the Airline turned in an Operating Profit due in no small part to its extremely strong Revenue growth of 42.7% over 3QFY07.

9ME SEP 2008 FINANCIALS
For the 9ME Sep 2008, the Cumulative Loss was RM294.8m or 12.4 sen per share wiping off 2008 cumulative earnings plus more. 9M-FY08 Revenue rose to RM1.80 bil. compared with 9M-FY07 Revenue of RM1.30 bil - a sharp 38.4% growth. Revenue growth was due largely to the new aircraft deliveries and an expanded route network.

INTEREST CHARGES
Actual interest charges for its secured Borrowings of RM6.35 bil. for 3QE Sep 2008 recorded a Net Interest Expense of RM80m after taking into account Interest Income. The effective interest rate on borrowings amounted to 5.2%. This reflected that AIRASIA was still profitable operationally despite the turbulent period of oil price surge.

3QFY08 FUEL SPECULATION LOSSES
3QFY08 speculative losses were, however, very large. AIRASIA recorded a Loss of " .... RM215m ... for the .... unwinding of our fuel derivative contracts and also the likely non-recovery of margin held by LEHMAN BROTHERS COMMODITY SERVICES inc ...(which filed for bankruptcy on Sep 15, 2008) ....". The Company also said that fuel prices are now trading at levels last seen in 2005.
FUEL HEDGING
AIRASIA in its 3QFY08 report now says that the Group as at Sep 30, 2008 had partial cover over 35% of its fuel consumption for Yeas 2008 and 2009. The statement which was released on Nov 28, 2008 also said that ".... the Group had subsequently liquidated its positions to take opportunity of the lower spot prices....". There goes another ambiguity in its disclosure.

However, AIRASIA cautions that with the current weakening of the Ringgit against the USD it will have a negative financial impact.

3QFY08 FOREX TRANSLATION LOSS OF RM212M WITH POTENTIAL FOR REVERSAL
3QFY08 Forex Translation Losses were RM212m. The Company said that the Loss could potentially turn into " .... a gain of RM365.6m ..." based on the USD Exchange rate which can only " .... be reflected in the financial statements upon realization over the duration of these contracts ....".

AIRASIA said that the Group " .... had hedged 75% of its dollar liabilities pertaining to its aircraft, engine and simulator loans into Ringgit by using long dated foreign exchange ....". The Group had also entered into " .... interest rate swaps (some of which are capped) to hedge against fluctuations in the US-LIBOR on its existing and future aircraft financing for deliveries between 2005 and 2009. The effect of this transaction enables the Group to pay fixed interest rate of 3.25% on Ringgit and between 4.55% and 5.2% on USD over a period of 12 to 14 years ....".

CAPEX COMMITMENTS
AIRASIA said that as at Sep 30, 2008, the Company had contractual Capex commitments for RM16.81 bil. and Authorised but uncontract Capex of RM7.29 bil. giving the Group a total of RM24.1 bil. in Capex spending.

NON-RECOGNISED ASSOCIATE LOSSES
AIRASIA's associates THAI AIRASIA and INDONESIA AIRASIA continue to be loss-making. FRS 128 defines interest (equity) in an associate as " ... the carrying amount of the investment ... under the equity method together with any long-term interests that, in substance, form part of the investor's net investment in the associate ...".

On the above basis, the unrecognised share of Operating Loss as at Sep 30, 2008 amounted to RM75.8m in THAI AIRASIA and RM89.5m in INDONESIA AIRASIA. The associates continue to be loss-making.

DEFERRED TAXES
AIRASIA enjoys tax deferment for reason of its capex spending. There have been detractors from the way the Company treats its deferred tax. As at Sep 30, 2008, Deferred Tax recorded RM146.2m.

CASH BALANCE
Cash Balance as at end Sep 2008 was RM774m compared with RM547m as at end Sep 2007.

OPERATIONS OVERVIEW
AIRASIA reported that for 3QE Sep 30, 2008, the Airline experienced 'seat load factor' of 75% compared with 76% for the immediate preceding quarter. The was explained as being in line with seasonal fluctuations.

PASSENGER VOLUME GROWTH STILL HIGH
Passenger volume grew 24% in 3QFY08 to 3.01m passengers compared with 3QFY07. In 2QFY08, the Airline carried 2.82m passengers. Average fare was higher by 12% at RM195 compared with RM174 in 3QFY07. The higher average fare was due to ancillary income and from the increase in fees. The lower overall load factor to 75% was due to significant seat capacity addition during the period and the full impact of the Moslem fasting month.

For 3QFY08, Revenue per Available Seat Kilometre (ASK) was 13.63 sen. Cost per ASK was 13.54 sen and Non-Fuel Cost per ASK was 4.43 sen. The average number of operating aircraft during 3QFY08 was 38.19 compared with 36.6 in 2QFY08.

PERFORMANCE OF ASSOCIATES
THAI AIRASIA operations continue to be challenging due to the political street demonstrations. THAI AIRASIA achieved a load factor of 79% and a on-time performance of 93%. THAI AIRASIA now operates 7 new Airbus 320 aircraft.

INDONESIA AIRASIA achieved load factor of 78% down from 2007 load factor of 79%. The Indonesian outfit which operates Boeing 737s has received its first Airbus 320 on Sep 19, 2008.

[ 本帖最后由 peng01 于 1-12-2008 04:39 PM 编辑 ]

傻人最有傻福

原帖由 ccube 于 28-11-2008 10:54 PM 发表
亚航星期一。。会面对强大卖压吗？
各位如何看？

今天如你所愿

傻人最有傻福

AIRASIA Bhd, Southeast Asia’s biggest discount airline, fell 11 sen, or9.9 per cent, to RM1.00 in Kuala Lumpur trading, the most since theshares listed in November 2004.

AirAsia posted a loss of RM465.5 million (US$129 million) in the thirdquarter as it had a charge of RM215 million to cover costs fromunwinding hedging contracts and the likely non-recovery of collateralfor trades held by the now-bankrupt Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

Thecarrier also filled fewer seats for a fourth consecutive quarter afterit increased capacity, it said on Friday after trading closed.

“It’s a sell,” Christopher Eng, an analyst at OSK Research Sdn Bhd,said in a report today. “We are concerned about its longer termprospects as its associates continue to bleed and AirAsia reachessaturation point.” He downgraded the stock to “sell” from “neutral” andlowered his price target to 67 sen from RM1.10.

Global air travel declined for a second consecutivemonth in October, with the International Air Transport Associationpredicting worse to come with recessions in many parts of the world.The trade group represents more than 200 airlines. - Bloomberg

luckystar2008

如果明天再下調，又是買進的良機。

ccube

原帖由 傻人最有傻福 于 1-12-2008 06:21 PM 发表



今天如你所愿

但对我没好处 。。。 又住套房了

弹煮

油要开始起回去鸟，应该买ioi，不是aasia
【笑一下就好 】

peng01

我生平第一只股票就是亚航，买在1块，一买就历史新低 0.765
今天又再买了 1.00同样数量 ， 希望再创新低，这次 0.50

ccube

原帖由 peng01 于 1-12-2008 08:47 PM 发表
我生平第一只股票就是亚航，买在1块，一买就历史新低 0.765
今天又再买了 1.00同样数量 ， 希望再创新低，这次 0.50

希望咯 。。。。  只要不宣布破产就好了

无与伦比0214

这只股不碰为妙
小心少到手
因为油价长期只会升

ccube

原帖由 无与伦比0214 于 1-12-2008 10:44 PM 发表
这只股不碰为妙
小心少到手
因为油价长期只会升

那就不对了。。。 现在还没有更好的交通工具。。能帮你省时间。。

东风不破

原帖由 傻人最有傻福 于 1-12-2008 06:22 PM 发表


AIRASIA Bhd, Southeast Asia’s biggest discount airline, fell 11 sen, or9.9 per cent, to RM1.00 in Kuala Lumpur trading, the most since theshares listed in November 2004.

AirAsia posted a loss  ...

下星期又把sell升级到buy，这些家伙。。。

其实也对的，要不然他们怎样趁低吸纳？
别人也是找口饭吃而已，尤其现在挣口饭都挺难的。

ThermoFisher

業績遜預期財測遭下調　航空業短期展望蒙塵

2008年12月2日
報導 - 翁慧琪

(吉隆坡1日訊)大馬航空業兩大巨頭─馬航(MAS，3786，主板貿服股)與亞洲航空(AIRASIA，5099，主板貿服股)上週五雙雙公佈業績，無獨有偶，兩者的整體表現都比市場預測糟糕。近期油價下降對航空公司有利無害，經濟不景更壓低需求，導致兩家公司的整體預測都被大幅調降，展望短期蒙塵。

隨著第三季的飛航量無法抵消飛機燃油高居每桶120美元的衝擊，馬航首9個月成績單遜於市場預測。齋戒月和9月份的飛航量大幅下滑，遠超過飛機燃油的跌幅。

另一方面，亞洲航空則在第三季創下4億2800萬令吉的虧損，就算減除例外項目，即外匯和雷曼兄弟造成的虧損，營運核心損失依然高居在7650萬令吉，絕對不如市場所預測。還有一個需要擔心的問題，是307%的淨負債率，以及連號公司帶來的2億4400萬令吉損失。

相比於07財政年同期的85美元，馬航從年初到08財政年首9個月，飛機燃油價格平均處在每桶140美元。儘管其他成本下跌，但僅燃油成本就暴跳了47%；然而目前價位已滑落到90美元，相信成本問題不會太大。

有鑑於此，分析員預計亞洲航空會在第四季轉虧為盈，而且傳統上，這是表現最強勁的季度。競爭激烈和新飛機的運送，將把其載送量更進一步拉低。

無論如何，現在最大的問題是需求。全球經濟放緩已經無可避免，分析員預期馬航的營業額會滑落大約7%。不只金融機構，其他國際公司都在削減生意上的飛航需要。這迫使馬航嘗試擴展較廉宜階層的市場佔有率。

僑豐投資銀行分析員預計，馬航的每座位收益(ASK)，將在08財政年縮減6%，而09財政年則再減2%。09財政年國際載客量降低到66%，而本地或許還能夠保持在68%，所以分析員不排除09財政年的國際載客量會滑落5%，貨物運送量也會降低10%。

該分析員相信容量削減，加上燃油價格下滑，將允許馬航在09財政年獲利，雖然分析員的現財政年和下一財政年預測，分別調降13%和38%。無論如何，他相信馬航能夠度過這回的難關。可是，投資建議被降級至「中立」，而合理價值也下修到2.50令吉。

儘管容量成長34%和每座位收益漲升7.9%，推動營業額大漲39%，亞洲航空受到燃油成本高漲70%的影響，而造成營運損失出現，就連營業額上漲也無法抵消貶值和新機融資成本。按季比較，利息開銷漲升及遞延稅項資產走低，導致情況加速惡化。

豐投行分析員是看好亞洲航空能夠轉虧為盈，惟聯號公司持續虧損表現，還有它在大馬市場的頂點，讓其長期展望蒙塵。此外，該公司私有化依然未決，而獻購價可能還會進一步調低。因此，他認為差勁的展望，遠比私有化來得重要。該分析員削減08和09財政年盈利，分別97%及39%，同時合理價值也被降低至0.67令吉，投資評級為「賣出」。

peng01

上次我记得好像有专家预测目标价 70-80 sen 的，结果是上到 1.27 最高，才下来到现在的 9 毛多

luckystar2008

原帖由 ThermoFisher 于 2-12-2008 12:17 AM 发表
業績遜預期財測遭下調　航空業短期展望蒙塵

2008年12月2日
報導 - 翁慧琪

(吉隆坡1日訊)大馬航空業兩大巨頭─馬航(MAS，3786，主板貿服股)與亞洲航空(AIRASIA，5099，主板貿服股)上週五雙雙公佈業績，無獨有偶 ...

那麼就在rm0.60等待它.

傻人最有傻福

亞航看好1年半內
開拓10印度新據點
（雪邦1日訊）亞洲航空（AIRASIA，5099，主板貿易）有信心在1年半內，開拓印度10個新據點。亞航今日從吉隆坡首航南印度特里奇，往返兩班乘客率平均達80%，反應熱烈。
亞航總執行長拿督斯里東尼費南德斯指出：“印度市場龐大，需求迫切，我們絕對有信心可在1年半內，飛往印度10個新據點。”
已轉虧為盈
他說，以前亞航也用了1年半時間，開拓中國12個據點，印度需求強勁，如孟買、欽奈及德里等，都是理想的據點，無論是亞航或亞航長程（Airasia X），都會會積極深入了解這些市場。
東尼也認為，今日首航成功，也說明了經濟艱難時刻，亞航積極、正面及致力推銷拓展新市場的策略已經奏效。
他今日為吉隆坡首航特里奇歡迎儀式致詞后的記者會上，發表談話。
列席者包括副總執行長副總執行長拿督卡瑪魯丁、商務部高級副總裁陳凱霖、以及印度駐大馬最高專員阿索甘達。
此外，詢及是否有信心在末季轉虧為盈，東尼回答說：“我們的乘客量那么高，我們已經轉虧為盈了。”
他直言，如果平均乘客量近100%，亞航還無法獲利的話，那問題就大了。
今天除了是吉隆坡首航南印特里奇，同時也是“開放天空”的大日，亞航首日共有7個班次飛往新加坡。
“我們選擇7的原因是，亞航花了7年時間去爭取開放天空飛往新加坡，意義重大。
增飛泰國解救受困者
儘管泰國示威抗議行動升溫，但亞航仍增開班機往返泰國其他地區協助受困者。
東尼說，昨天泰國亞航成功將受困在素旺那普國際機場的15架飛機，移至泰國其他機場。
“我們不會減班，目前我們正積極想辦法，看看如何恢復航班以救出更多受困的人，也許會以烏塔帕（U-Tapao）機場為基地也說不定。”
陳凱霖指出，目前亞航往返泰國的班機計有3個班次，公司將增飛更多班次。
東尼指出，亞航以前曾經歷過許多艱難時刻，如沙斯（SARS）及禽流感等，但都不曾停飛，這次也不例外。
針對泰國航班取消賠償事宜，他回答說，大部分乘客都要求更改航班，部份購賣了保險的乘客就可索賠，問題並不大。
無論如何，他認為，業者應該隨時做好準備因應可能的外圍變封，例如政治動盪等，這樣業務才能持久。
“泰國曾經有過相同的經驗，他們每一次都能很快復甦，我想這次也一樣會很快的雨過天晴。”

傻人最有傻福

LOW-COST carrier AirAsia Bhd (5099)will continue to increasXXXXXty and market its routes aggressivelyto ensure its revenue remains robust, said its top official.

Group chief executive officer Datuk Seri Tony Fernandes said with itsadditional flights to Singapore now, he was certain that Kuala Lumpur(KL) can grow to be the largest hub in Southeast Asia.

"Justtoday we had two passengers from Singapore who stopped over here beforeflying off to Langkawi. So the fear that Singapore will be attractingmore passengers is baseless," he said.

  AirAsia now has seven daily flights between KL and Singapore.
While Fernandes did not discount that its fourth quarter will beimpacted by the current turmoil in Thailand, he said AirAsia's loadfactor was better due to its recent no-fuel surcharge initiative.

  "In a time like this, we have to constantly find ways to stimulate the market instead of not doing anything," he said.

  Fernandes said AirAsia had not seen a dip in forward bookings for flights to Bangkok.

"It is still quite strong. You have to remember that Thailand has gonethrough many difficulties and overcame it all," he added.

AirAsia has not flown in or out of Bangkok in the past six days afterThai authorities closed Suvarnabhumi International Airport afteranti-government protesters storm the terminal.

  It has sent two rescue flights today for passengers still caught there.

  Fernandes said all 15 AirAsia planes located at the Suvarnabhumi airport are now residing in three other Thai airports.

  AirAsia will add more flights surrounding the Bangkok hub (such as Phuket to KL) starting tomorrow.

Fernandes was speaking to reporters in conjunction with its firstflight to India yesterday at the Low Cost Carrier Terminal, KL.

AirAsia has recorded 100 per cent load from December 1-18 for itsflights from KL to Trichy while achieving 80 per cent load factor thismonth.

  Fernandes said that AirAsia may consider increasing flights to Trichy.

"Definitely there is a demand for a second flight and we are looking atit. It's a matter of whether we put another flight to Trichy or look atanother Indian destination," said Fernandes.

He said it wasstill viable for AirAsia and AirAsia X to fly to 10 Indiandestinations, such as Bombay, New Delhi, Madras, and Tiruvananthapuram,within the next 18 months.

"There is strong demand becausepeople arriving in KL can get (on connecting flights) to Bali, Phuketor Langkawi," he said, adding that its maiden flight to Trichy wasalready profitable.

ocean_1307

如果airasia被私有化，airasia-ce会怎样？
airasia-ce的价位好吸引人
airasia rm1.14,call warrant 就能开翻了