房地产期货和期权（已更新）

richloo

了解房价为何会跌就可以找到有可能对冲的期货产品。
但是金融历史会重演吗？cds还会弄垮市场？soros还可以阻击亚洲货币？读了书里的道理就可以让人赚钱？我很疑惑。

aidj

4 years = 48 months = 1461 days
12% p.a. daily accurred daily debited

1,000,000	1,615,946.92
900,000	1,454,352.23
800,000	1,292,757.54
700,000	1,131,162.84
600,000	969,568.15
500,000	807,973.46
400,000	646,378.77
300,000	487,784.08
200,000	323,189.38

钱放bank FD 都没那么高
除非4年内，其中一种可能

• GST 连续3年 12%
• 货币贬值超过40%
• 通货膨胀 成长10%
• 以上混合
  

aidj

现金流

拿丧家发票GST tax invoice issued后
21天内上缴

原本给30天帐期，改为14天。

万一碰到跑路
损失惨重。

手上需要比之前 更多 cash 来周转 turnover

换个场景，大家以屋养屋

大家可能需要把 租金deposit 提高到4个月。换成是我租给别人，绝对会那么要求！

心里想一想。

不言而喻。

d3viL

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/real-estate/

这里有关于real estate futures and options

aidj

aidj 发表于 21-12-2014 06:41 PM
现金流

拿丧家发票GST tax invoice issued后

简单一句金融jargon: 流动性枯竭 ([url=https://www.google.com.my/?q=Liquidity+shortage]Liquidity shortage[/url] /dried up)
平民话就是手头紧。

• 2014年年10月15日发生的“迷你闪电崩盘”
  

50912cmea

d3viL 发表于 26-12-2014 08:35 AM
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/real-estate/

这里有关于real estate futures and options

分享

50912cmea

@卡螺丝
@d3viL

在美英国就有。。。

Property Derivatives - Pricing, Hedging and Applications (Wiley, 2008) by Juerg M. Syz

For Owner-occupiers

Besides professional property holders, owner-occupiers can benefit from a short hedge. For example, Goldman Sachs issued put warrants on the UK Halifax Average House Price Index in 2004. These warrants were targeted at UK owner-occupiers. A resident who owns UK residential property, say a GB ￡250 000 house, may be concerned that house prices fall over the coming two years. He or she does not wish to sell the property, but rather to hedge out the risk of a declining property market by purchasing put warrants on the UK Average House Price. If the index falls, the value appreciation in the put warrants offsets, at least in part, the lower value of the house. Again, such a hedge carries the risk that the value of an individual house will not rise and fall to exactly the same extent as the index. To determine how many put warrants are required for a hedge, the current value of the house is divided by the index level. If house prices rise over the term of the hedge, the homeowner gains value on the house but loses the premium of the put that expires worthless. If house prices fall, he or she loses in value on the house and gains value on the put, net of the premium.

Instead of plain warrants, a similar house price hedge can also be implemented by a mortgage that is linked to a property index...

Case–Shiller Index

Understanding The Case-Shiller Housing Index

卡螺丝

50912cmea 发表于 27-1-2015 10:16 AM
@卡螺丝
@d3viL

多谢分享。。

50912cmea

卡螺丝 发表于 27-1-2015 01:03 PM
多谢分享。。

卡姐姐您好