投资快报 3

葉芬

What's Behind Samson Oil & Gas' Recent Run?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/255552-what-s-behind-samson-oil-gas-recent-run?source=yahoo

Last week, Samson Oil & Gas (SSN) made a presentation at Enercom. Since then, the name has been running pretty strongly. Since I've been asked a number of times about the reason for this run, I thought I'd put a few points on paper. The reasons for this run-up range from offset operators drilling wells near Samson's position to other large cap E&P companies taking new positions adjacent to Samon's acreage.

Offset Operator Success. Chesapeake (CHK) has drilled six wells and fracced two of them on the Niobrara acreage acquired from SSN late last year. CHK is building six 400 barrel tanks at each well site (SSN says they have the photos) which is a pretty good sign of success. We have heard that CHK has been trucking oil north to a terminal for several weeks now. While we have heard of multiple successess of late in the Wattenberg Field to the south, this is the latest and best piece of local color available so far. Note that SSN has said they can argue that they kept the best part of the position for themselves.

Other Operators Coming Into the Immediate Area. Devon (DVN) is acquiring 3D seismic directly adjacent to and southwest of the SSN Goshen county position. This is likely the rumored big cap E&P buyer of acreage to the south of SSN and points yet again to the demand for real estate by the big boys in this area.

Samson Plans to Fill in the Holes in Their Acreage. SSN is looking to add another 4,000 net acres in the Niobrara that is covered by their recently shot 3D, so they are filling in the doughnut holes in their position.

Getting Back to Business in the Bakken. In the Williston Basin, Samson has been stalled over the winter due to frac crew availabilty for its two drilled but not yet completed Bakken wells. SSN has firmed up frac dates and said they will frac those two long delayed wells in March. Also, 2011 will see them add more acreage to the play (probably another six sections) as well as test some thoughts on mid length laterals on tighter sapcing (320 acres vs the current 1 well per 640 acres), so we may seem them double the well count on their current 6 sections.

Balance Sheet Remains Solid. SSN mentioned they will be selling some gas assets in the near term (they had previously said 1H11) and I have those in the model for a fairly negligible amount. Also, they will repay the last of their debt ($10 mm) from their cash balance ($68 mm) in May.

Lastly, the stock may be running because of a market that is hot for oily names and understands that the following thoughts would prove positive to SSN:

   1. The first is that EOG has started talking about the Niobrara play as a matrix flow play, which would imply more homogenous results than that of a play dominated by areas of more or less fracture intensity (hot spots). So if you crack the completion code, your acreage, as a whole, would be more valuable.
   2. Their last presentation put three sets of possible EURs on future Niobrara wells, including the 413 MBO per well they have been using for quite some time. The NPV of that gets you to about $8 per share before you consider cash, Bakken, and other assets. If you haircut, that's $4 and still a bit higher than here, but the math is probably getting simple enough, along with the rally itself, to inspire some people to add to or initiate positions.
   3. And lastly, we have heard that the company will be traveling with a sell-side firm in March that presently does not have official coverage of the name. I'd ask you this: If you were a salesman slogging around the U.S. with a management team, putting clients in the name, would you consider doing so if you thought your analyst was going to come with anything less than a report which offered upside to current levels? Yeah, me either.

Disclosure: I am long CHK, SSN.

葉芬

如果今晚开盘USD3.8, 还值得收吗?
zev23 发表于 1-3-2011 03:50 PM

那要看你自己是投資還是投機了。
還有股價在1天之內會有波動，可以在開市後觀察先再做決定。

葉芬

冲得太快了。。。我已经在3.4放了一点，买进3.1.。。投机的，不投机我都放进仓库。。。留票。。。平均买进在 ...
blackangel 发表于 1-3-2011 03:47 PM

昨天是青色大大蠟燭，好現象。
再加上 Volume 超過4M，今晚股價還會加油。

夏之恋

回复 3863# 葉芬

大家好，新手报到。。。。。
小夏请大家多多指导。。。。。
芬姐，今晚进场。。SSN。该排
什麽价位。。。。。。

夏之恋

希望来的及搭这班airbus

葉芬

回复  葉芬

大家好，新手报到。。。。。
小夏请大家多多指导。。。。。
芬姐，今晚进场。。SSN。该排 ...
夏之恋 发表于 1-3-2011 07:54 PM

先歡迎加入佳禮大家庭。

SSN 你得自己看情形才做決定。今天的價錢一定是跳高開高。
還有就是我希望網友們能夠去SSN公司網站看下，了解下到底SSN是怎樣的一間公司。


Samson Oil & Gas Limited (Samson) is engaged in exploration and development of oil and natural gas properties in the United States. As of June 30, 2010, it had five material producing oil and gas properties. It does not operate any of its material, producing properties; rather, it owns a working interest in each property and has entered into operating agreements with third parties, under which the oil and gas are produced and sold. In June 2010, it agreed to sell 24,166 acres of undeveloped oil and gas leases in Goshen County, Wyoming to Chesapeake Energy Corporation. As of June 30, 2010, the Company’s properties included Jonah Field, Green River Basin, Wyoming; Look Out Wash Field, Green River Basin, Wyoming; State GC Oil and Gas Field, New Mexico; North Stockyard, Williston Basin, North Dakota, and Davis Bintliff, Brazoria County, Texas. It has one wholly owned subsidiary, Samson Oil and Gas USA, Inc.



http://www.samsonoilandgas.com.au/IRM/content/home.html

葉芬

今晚有只新股剛剛加入 AMEX Exchange。

Voyager： VOG (AMEX)

這也是一間 Oil & Gas Company
大家可以參考下今晚她剛上市的股價走勢。

SUNNY仔

回复 3864# 夏之恋


    欢迎来到美丽的国际区!

SUNNY仔

回复 3867# 葉芬


    发售价是六块?google 还search不到喔....

葉芬

回复  夏之恋


    欢迎来到美丽的国际区!
SUNNY仔 发表于 1-3-2011 08:32 PM

    不知你有發現到嗎 近排有不少的小妹們來逛國際區。

葉芬

回复  葉芬


    发售价是六块?google 还search不到喔....
SUNNY仔 发表于 1-3-2011 08:38 PM

    我這裡見到有個人 放 ASK 9.00

SUNNY仔

回复 3870# 葉芬


    这个我要问的但被芬姐快了步.....而且还有很多小弟弟...

SUNNY仔

回复 3871# 葉芬


    我这里也看到有人ASK $9,但BID就是0...

葉芬

回复  葉芬


    我这里也看到有人ASK $9,但BID就是0...
SUNNY仔 发表于 1-3-2011 08:42 PM

    呵呵 今晚可以試下運氣。

roberto

回复 3872# SUNNY仔
回复 3874# 葉芬

http://ir.stockpr.com/voyageroil/company-news/detail/103/voyager-oil-gas-inc-closes-50-million-private-placement

葉芬

回复 3872# SUNNY仔
回复 3874# 葉芬
roberto 发表于 1-3-2011 08:50 PM

    謝謝 小弟分享。

葉芬

Pre-Market  Last 3.63


http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/ExtendedTradingTrades.aspx?selected=SSN&mkttype=pre

grasslow

回复 3864# 夏之恋


    欢迎新手！

zev23

那要看你自己是投資還是投機了。
還有股價在1天之內會有波動，可以在開市後觀察先再做決定。:handsh ...
葉芬 发表于 1-3-2011 05:21 PM

谢谢芬姐，我是要投资。好就观察先。

kellytjy

回复 3863# 葉芬


    我塔不上这部飞机