股市要调整了

alpinev18

原帖由 tanhy 于 2-6-2009 04:27 PM 发表


Citi 还没说要发股拿钱

他只是被踢出DJIA, 而不是delist 吧？

香港跌了500点，不知道是套利还是狼来了

观察中

香港都起了整7000 點, 才跌那500 點, 算不了什麼.

alpinev18

原帖由 tanhy 于 1-6-2009 01:58 PM 发表


中国买的是短期bond, 又用这些bond来买commodities

这是高招

最后$都转移去commodities去，这些工业化所必需用到的

比美元稳当得多

可以这么说，大家都认为2年内美国不会倒，5-10年就没人能打保单
...

大大,

怎样用BOND 去買COMMODITIES 呢?

tanhy

原帖由 alpinev18 于 2-6-2009 04:43 PM 发表


大大,

怎样用BOND 去買COMMODITIES 呢?

美国的bond就好像现金，中国买commodities的时候可以用bond来交易

这些不是我们玩的

alpinev18

原帖由 tanhy 于 2-6-2009 05:13 PM 发表


美国的bond就好像现金，中国买commodities的时候可以用bond来交易

这些不是我们玩的

中國佬还挺脚滑的.

lonely2

对啊。。
给DJ LISTED。。
＝＿＝


Why was Citi de-listed?
It seems, Dow Jones made its decision based on the fact that Citi is undergoing a large-scale restructuring. The decision by the Dow Jones was not taken lightly. According to the press release issued by the DJIA in announcing this..."We genuinely hope that once the bank has refashioned itself that we will again be able to consider it for inclusion. Citigroup is renowned institution, not only in this country, but around the world."


How long will Citi be de-listed for?

We do not know. But as per quote from the press release noted above, "We genuinely hope that once the bank has refashioned itself that we will again be able to consider it for inclusion."

http://dealbreaker.com/2009/06/citigroup-to-employees-what-to.php

alpinev18

AP sources: 2 Boston hedge funds closing downAP sources: 2 large Boston hedge funds closing down, returning cash to investors

Mark Jewell, AP Personal Finance Writer
• On Tuesday June 2, 2009, 7:29 pm EDT

       Buzz up!
• Print

BOSTON (AP) -- A pair of unrelated Boston-based hedge funds managing a total of more than $1.3 billion separately told investors Tuesday they're shutting down and returning investor cash because of recent disappointing performance.

Letters from Raptor Capital Management and Noble Partners LP that were obtained by The Associated Press say both firms plan to revamp their investment strategies and eventually offer new funds.
Noble Partners' George Noble told investors in his $550 billion Gyrfalcon QP and Offshore Funds that "my performance over the past several months of 2009 has been the most professionally disappointing and personally frustrating" of his nearly 30-year career.
"Whatever the reasons for our poor performance, the numbers speak for themselves and are simply unacceptable," Noble said in a letter to investors about the funds' 30 percent loss this year.
The closures were also confirmed to the AP by two people familiar with the situations. The persons spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly on the matters. The Wall Street Journal first reported the closures online Tuesday afternoon.
James Pallotta, who heads the $800 billion Raptor Funds, told investors in a letter that his firm has returned an average of nearly 13.9 percent per year since the funds' inception in October 1993 through the end of last month. That compares with a 6.5 percent return over that period for the Standard & Poor's 500 index.
But the funds' performance this year has been "roughly flat," he said.
Pallotta became a minority owner of the Boston Celtics professional basketball team, and split several months ago with longtime hedge fund partner Paul Tudor Jones of Tudor Investment Corp.
Pallotta said his Raptor Capital Management is suspending investor withdrawals and will begin returning investor cash in early July, starting with a cash payment of about 75 percent, followed by a process to eventually return the remainder.
Noble told his investors to expect 95 percent of their remaining capital returned by July 1. Meanwhile, an audit will be conducted so that the remaining cash can be returned "as soon as expeditiously as possible thereafter."
In his letter, Pallotta didn't offer details of the shortcomings that recent market volatility has exposed in his fund's investment strategy. But he wrote that in recent years he's become skeptical "regarding the sustainability of certain aspects of the industry's structure and short-term focus."
Noble said that "the dynamics of the past year dictated a far shorter-term, more tactical approach.
"Although we managed to preserve capital in 2008, as the new year unfolded we became increasingly aware of the unsustainable nature of our overall investment process."
The new strategy that his company hopes to devise "will seek greater return consistency by reducing downside volatility, without eroding our core investment approach."
The process will "take at least several months," Noble wrote, adding that "it is not appropriate or consistent with our fiduciary duties to retain outside capital during this time."
The moves follow the closures of a record 1,471 hedge funds -- or nearly 15 percent of the industry -- in 2008, with half of them vanishing in the fourth quarter alone, according to Hedge Fund Research. The average hedge fund lost 18 percent last year, although not all hedge funds fared poorly.
Hedge funds, which are coming under increasing scrutiny because they are largely unregulated, are vast pools of capital that operate secretively and traditionally cater to institutional investors and very wealthy individuals. Hedge funds have grown explosively in recent years, luring an increasing number of ordinary investors, pension funds and university endowments.
Hedge funds can invest in nearly anything: commodities, real estate, complex derivative securities as well as ordinary stocks, assets of companies. Unlike government-regulated mutual funds -- the primary vehicle for retirement savings for tens of millions of Americans -- hedge funds can use techniques such as short-selling, or betting on falling stocks or markets to make a profit from downturns.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/AP-sources-2-Boston-hedge-apf-15419806.html?sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

來吧.. 再多几间呀.

alpinev18

原帖由 tanhy 于 29-5-2009 10:50 PM 发表
又3人感染甲型流感(2009-05-29)● 蔡慧玲　　又有三名从美国抵达的本地人或外国侨民被确定感染甲型H1N1流感病毒，使确诊病例在前天破零后，增加到4人。
　　卫生部昨晚发表文告说，三名新病例中，有两名女病人同首名 ...

我個人认为, H1N1 在美國應該是很够力一下, 小新的案例里, 很多都是從美國回來的.

美國这方面應該是盖了不少新闻.

tanhy

Bernanke Warns Long-Term Deficits Threaten Financial Stability


By Craig Torres and Brian Faler
June 3 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman
[url=http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Ben+S.%0ABernanke&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1]Ben S. Bernanke[/url]
said large U.S. budget deficits threaten financial stability and the government can’t continue indefinitely to borrow at the current rate to finance the shortfall.
“Unless we demonstrate a strong commitment to fiscal sustainability in the longer term, we will have neither financial stability nor healthy economic growth,” Bernanke said in testimony to lawmakers today. “Maintaining the confidence of the financial markets requires that we, as a nation, begin planning now for the restoration of fiscal balance.”
Bernanke’s comments signal that the central bank sees risks of a relapse into financial turmoil even as credit markets show signs of stability. He warned the financial industry remains under stress and the credit crunch continues to limit spending.
The Fed chief said that deficit concerns are already influencing the prices of long-term Treasuries. Yields on 10- year notes have climbed since the Fed announced plans in March to buy $300 billion of long-term government bonds.
“In recent weeks, yields on longer-term Treasury securities and fixed-rate mortgages have risen,” Bernanke said. “These increases appear to reflect concerns about large federal deficits but also other causes, including greater optimism about the economic outlook, a reversal of flight-to-quality flows and technical factors related to the hedging of mortgage holdings.”
Rising Deficit
The budget deficit this year is projected to reach $1.85 trillion, equivalent to 13 percent of the nation’s economy, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.
This year’s deficit, four times the size of last year’s shortfall, has been driven up mostly by costs associated with the financial crisis. An almost $800 billion fiscal stimulus plan, the federal bailout of the financial industry, the government takeover of
Fannie Mae
and Freddie Mac along with the increased costs of running safety-net programs such as unemployment insurance have all added billions to spending.
President
[url=http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Barack+Obama&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1]Barack Obama[/url]
has pledged to halve the deficit by the end of his term. Yet even if he’s successful, his administration anticipates the government will still run what would be, by historical standards, large deficits for the foreseeable future.
Inflation Outlook
The administration projects the deficit will shrink next year to $1.25 trillion or 8.5 percent of the economy. In 2011, it expects the deficit to shrink further to $930 billion or 6 percent of GDP.
The administration’s projections are more optimistic than some independent observers, who assume the economy will grow more slowly and expenses will pile up faster than the White House anticipates.
Rising government spending, forecasts for a record fiscal deficit and an unprecedented expansion of central bank credit have also fueled investor concerns that inflation will rise. Bernanke said inflation “will remain low” as the economy operates with slack resource use.
Bernanke said the economy is likely to suffer more “sizable” job losses, which will weigh on consumer spending. Still, Fed officials are looking for a recovery in growth later this year as housing demand stabilizes and companies balance inventories with overall demand.
The central bank is buying as much as $1.75 trillion of housing debt and Treasuries this year to lower borrowing costs across the economy after reducing the benchmark interest rate almost to zero in December. Fed officials hold their next policy meeting June 23-24 in Washington.

看来中国人的警告被听到了
Fed 一关水喉，炒家还不跑？

tanhy

Bernanke: Recovery will be slowFederal Reserve chairman says weak labor market and continued tightness in credit conditions will rein in recovery's pace.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com)  -- Data suggest the economic contraction may be slowing, but the economy is hardly out of the woods, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told lawmakers on Wednesday.
"A number of factors are likely to continue to weigh on consumer spending, among them the weak labor market, the declines in equity and housing wealth that households have experienced over the past two years, and still-tight credit conditions," Bernanke said.
Bernanke said he still anticipates that the economy will start its recovery later this year, but cautioned that "recovery will only gradually gain momentum and that economic slack will diminish slowly. In particular, businesses are likely to be cautious about hiring and the unemployment rate is likely to rise for a time, even after economic growth resumes."
The Federal Reserve expects that the growth in inflation this year will be less than it was in 2008.
Bernanke also sounded concern regarding the country's long-term fiscal situation.

tanhy

Bernanke: Recovery will be slowFederal Reserve chairman says weak labor market and continued tightness in credit conditions will rein in recovery's pace.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com)  -- Data suggest the economic contraction may be slowing, but the economy is hardly out of the woods, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told lawmakers on Wednesday.
"A number of factors are likely to continue to weigh on consumer spending, among them the weak labor market, the declines in equity and housing wealth that households have experienced over the past two years, and still-tight credit conditions," Bernanke said.
Bernanke said he still anticipates that the economy will start its recovery later this year, but cautioned that "recovery will only gradually gain momentum and that economic slack will diminish slowly. In particular, businesses are likely to be cautious about hiring and the unemployment rate is likely to rise for a time, even after economic growth resumes."
The Federal Reserve expects that the growth in inflation this year will be less than it was in 2008.
Bernanke also sounded concern regarding the country's long-term fiscal situation.

tanhy

FDIC shelves toxic loan planThe agency delays the launch of a program to get bad loans off banks' books, citing their capital-raising success.

FDIC chief Sheila Bair has had to do an about-face on a plan to take bad loans off banks' books.

FDIC shelves toxic loan plan  Former GMAC Bank under attack  SanDisk: We're No. 2! 

FORTUNE 500 Current Issue Subscribe to Fortune

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- Regulators shelved a controversial plan that aimed to cleanse banks' balance sheets of toxic assets.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said Wednesday it has postponed the initial sale of bank assets under its Legacy Loans Program, or LLP. The FDIC said it wasn't canceling the program but would put it under study for revival in a different form.
The plan, which was to offer low-cost federal financing to private investors in troubled bank assets, had been expected to begin with a trial sale this month.
真的是因为经济好转而不需要处理掉有毒资产？
你当我3岁小孩子？

tanhy

Bernanke 转口风
经济数据还是一样烂
美国政府被中国警告不得烂印钞票

种种狼来的迹象

joetoh

各个消息都显示最近的涨潮过头了，难道股市将会进入调整时期？

tanhy

原帖由 joetoh 于 4-6-2009 09:30 PM 发表
各个消息都显示最近的涨潮过头了，难道股市将会进入调整时期？

乐观的看法，盘整1-2个月，如果经济好转 (好转，不是less bad), 继续冲
悲观的看法，炒家离场。。。

tanhy

Malaysia, China Consider Ending Trade in Dollars

[size=1.3em]BEIJING -- Malaysia's prime minister said China and his country are considering conducting their trade in Chinese yuan and Malaysian ringgit, joining a growing number of nations thinking of phasing out the dollar.
[size=1.3em]"We can consider whether we can use local currencies to facilitate trade financing between our two countries," Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak told reporters at a briefing Wednesday after meeting with China's premier, Wen Jiabao.
[size=1.3em]"What worries us is that the [U.S.] deficit is being financed by printing more money," Mr. Najib said. "That is what is happening. The Treasury in the United States is printing more notes."
[size=1.3em]China has been promoting the idea of replacing the dollar as the global currency, suggesting that a basket of currencies less linked to the fate of one economy would make more sense. It also has been talking about using the yuan for trade settlements, starting gradually in the region and then expanding farther abroad.
[size=1.3em]
[size=1.3em]就连大马也来踩一脚
[size=1.3em]很明显亚洲国家都慢慢把船靠向中国，美元开始被抛弃

tanhy

我记得几个礼拜前看到很相似的文章，不知为何今天又跳出来

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Temp-work-helps-mask-apf-15447705.html

Temp work helps mask joblessness among AmericansTemp and part-time workers, discouraged jobseekers mask the depth of unemployment in US
--The 8.9 percent April unemployment rate was based on 13.7 million Americans out of work. But that number doesn't include discouraged workers or people who gave up looking for work after four weeks. Add those 700,000 people, and the unemployment rate would be 9.3 percent.
--The official rate also doesn't include "marginally attached workers," or people who have looked for work in the past year but stopped searching in the past month because of barriers to employment such as child care, poor health or lack of transportation. Add those 1.4 million people, and the unemployment rate would be 10.1 percent.
--The official rate also doesn't include "involuntary part-time workers," or the 2 million people like Noel who took a part-time job because that's all they could get, plus those whose work hours dropped below the full-time level. Once those 9 million workers are added to the unemployment mix, the rate would be 15.8 percent.
All told, nearly 25 million Americans were either unemployed, underemployed or had given up looking for a job in April.
The ranks of involuntary part-timers has increased by 4.9 million in the past year, according to a May study by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Many economists now predict unemployment won't peak until 2010. And since employers generally increase the hours of existing workers before hiring new ones, workers could be looking for full-time jobs for some time.
Even so, one economist said the increase in involuntary part-timers might have a silver lining. Gary Burtless, a senior fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institute, said employers are likely cutting back everyone's hours instead of laying off people.
"In many countries, it's regarded as a good thing," he said.

不知道那个白痴economist 说part-time worker 也是好事

tanhy

美国失业率5月份升至9.4%

　　新华网华盛顿6月5日电(记者 胡芳 刘洪)美国劳工部5日公布的数据显示，5月份，美国非农业部门就业岗位减少34.5万个，是去年9月以来的最小幅度；但失业率从4月份的8.9%升至9.4%，为25年多来的最高点。
　　如果把放弃寻找新就业岗位或是在做临时工作的失业者计算在内，5月份失业率将高达16.4%，为1994年以来的最高水平。
　　此外，今年3月份和4月份的就业岗位减少数分别被修正为65.2万个和50.4万个，均低于原来估计的69.9万个和53.9万个。
　　美国1月份就业岗位减少了74.1万个，是1949年秋季以来的最大幅度。自美国经济2007年12月陷入衰退以来，美国就业岗位已总计减少600万个。
　　5月份，美国多数部门的就业岗位都有所减少。其中，建筑业裁减5.9万个，制造业裁减15.6万个，零售业裁减1.75万个，金融业裁减3万个，政府部门裁减7000个。不过，卫生保健、教育和休闲娱乐领域就业有所增加。
　　经济学家认为，在确定经济稳定复苏之前，企业仍将在增加雇员方面持谨慎态度。因此，他们预测美国失业率今年年底将达到10%，明年第二季度可能达到10.7%，之后逐渐回落。战后美国失业率最高点是1982年年底的10.8%。

stress test 不是预测最高去到9.5% 吗？既是说不会再上啦？
等等，好像还么把GM破产包括在内？



[ 本帖最后由 tanhy 于 6-6-2009 07:41 AM 编辑 ]

tanhy

Surge in Labor Force Shows U.S. Workers Gaining Confidence

June 5 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. labor force posted the biggest back-to-back jump in six years, a sign Americans who’d quit looking for work are gaining confidence their search will pay off as the recession eases.
The labor pool rose to 155.1 million in May from 154 million in March, the largest two-month increase since January- February 2003, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The participation rate, or the share of people either working or looking for a job, climbed to 65.9 percent, the highest since October.
“Some among the ranks of job losers see a greater chance of finding a job and have begun to look in earnest,” [url=http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=John%0ARyding&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1]John Ryding[/url], chief economist at RDQ Economics LLC in New York, said in a note to clients today. It strengthens the argument that “the recession may have ended in May or June,” he said.
The gain in the labor force in part helps explain why the jobless rate jumped to 9.4 percent in May, the highest since 1983. Payrolls fell by 345,000, the least in eight months, today’s report also showed. The data reinforces signs the deepest economic slump in half a century is starting to abate, even as economists predict any expansion may be muted.
Other reports corroborate that some of the gloom is lifting from the jobs outlook. A Conference Board survey showed the group’s index of consumer expectations in May rose to the highest level since December 2007, and the share of people who said more jobs will be available in the next six months climbed to the highest level in more than five years.
For some economists, the combination of a jump in the labor force and a drop in employment in May also points to how tough it will be to actually find work in the months ahead.
“Getting the unemployment rate down will be a long, drawn- out task,” said [url=http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Nigel+Gault&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1]Nigel Gault[/url], chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. Still, “the worst news is behind us, and job declines should progressively soften as the year proceeds.”

怪不得被炒的人减少，失业的人反而增加
从一开始，就业统计的方法就有问题
为何放弃找工的人不被统计在内？如果把这些人和做散工的也算，真正的失业是超过16%！

那么Obama因该叫那些人不用找工了，那么失业数据就会变成0

K-T

原帖由 alpinev18 于 2-6-2009 05:37 PM 发表 中國佬还挺脚滑的.

原帖由 alpinev18 于 2-6-2009 05:37 PM 发表 中國佬还挺脚滑的.

这个世界上其中一个最狡猾的民族就是中国人。

lemontee

卡贴吗？
卡贴吗？
卡贴吗？