股市要调整了

alpinev18

你怎麼说? 英中行專家：勿認為最壞時刻已過

• 國際財經

2009-05-28 18:02
（英國‧倫敦）英格蘭銀行貨幣政策委員會委員布蘭奇弗洛爾（David Blanchflower）在今日（週四，5月28日）刊出的一項評論中說，世界不應假設全球經濟危機的最壞時期已過。
立場一向屬於鴿派經濟學家的布蘭奇弗洛爾告訴《泰晤士報》：“我擔心的是可能有許多假的黎明，我們不應該假定每一件事都已過去。”
即將在5月底卸除英格蘭銀行貨幣政策委員會委員職務的他說：“我們必須重新思考，你將必須拋掉許多經濟學理論而重新開始，當我們遭逢100年來最大的金融危機時，難道會有人不這樣認為嗎？”

lonely2

我勿認最壞時刻已過了，
至少大银行不会倒！
消费指数都开始回升，
屋价也开始反弹，
但。。不知道没有人买屋而已=_="

tanhy

原帖由 lonely2 于 29-5-2009 12:14 PM 发表
我勿認最壞時刻已過了，
至少大银行不会倒！
消费指数都开始回升，
屋价也开始反弹，
但。。不知道没有人买屋而已=_="

消费指数没有反弹，反弹的是信心指数
信心指数反映的是期望，就好像每个买马票的人都觉得自己会中头奖

屋价还在下跌，反弹的是销售，而且只是2手房屋（被lelong的那种 ）

大银行不会倒我认同，因为美国政府说“none of the big banks will be allowed to fail"
中小银行就保重了

股价要保持，须要有企业的盈利做后盾
不过这一波的盈利是因为cut cost 引起，如果大家都cut cost, GDP 会大跌
经济复苏就会更慢，这是循环

tanhy

现在很多人都说狼来了
不过喊了很多声，狼还是没有来
于是人们就开始怀疑狼到底来不来

这就是高招，如果不是这样，老狼又那里会出其不意跳出来把你吃了？

不过我一开始就预测猴子戏会演到6月，现在只是看他们怎么玩

Citi怎么还不出来拿钱？只剩下他了

lonely2

原帖由 tanhy 于 29-5-2009 01:02 PM 发表


消费指数没有反弹，反弹的是信心指数
信心指数反映的是期望，就好像每个买马票的人都觉得自己会中头奖

屋价还在下跌，反弹的是销售，而且只是2手房屋（被lelong的那种 ）

大银行不会倒我认同，因为美 ...

哈哈。
看来。。
美国还有一段艰难的路要走。。
s
ome银行 还加薪来留住人才。。
真是令人担心

lonely2

哈。
CITI还在很努力的筹备。。。。。
一直收卖债券／TRIM IT COST。。 =＿=＇

tanhy

现在唱好和坏的理由

唱好:
1.Green Shoots
2.Less bad is good
3.股市反弹代表经济6-9个月内会好转

唱坏:
1.就业率还在跌
2.楼市还在跌
3.美国债务危机

很明显的，唱好的人是在买希望，唱坏的人是现实主义者

lonely2

卡。。。。。。。。。

lonely2

ka~~~~

tanhy

Geithner to Urge China to Boost Demand, Official Says (Update2)




May 28 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury Secretary [url=http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Timothy+Geithner&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:S:d1]Timothy Geithner[/url] will urge China to boost domestic demand and loosen controls on the yuan in his first trip to the nation since taking office, while readying a defense on queries about sinking U.S. bonds.
In meetings with Chinese leaders in Beijing June 1-2, Geithner will encourage China to move toward a more flexible exchange rate, a U.S. Treasury official told reporters in Washington. He will also answering any questions the Chinese may have about the dollar or the U.S. budget deficit, the official said on condition of anonymity.

美国敢说中国manipulate yuan?
中国现在喝一声，美国佬还不乖乖摇尾巴？

tanhy

又3人感染甲型流感

(2009-05-29)

● 蔡慧玲　　又有三名从美国抵达的本地人或外国侨民被确定感染甲型H1N1流感病毒，使确诊病例在前天破零后，增加到4人。
　　卫生部昨晚发表文告说，三名新病例中，有两名女病人同首名女性病患一样，在本月26日抵达新加坡。
　　另一名男病患则比他们早一天，在星期一凌晨抵达。
　　三名最新病患都是从美国不同地点出发的乘客，搭乘不同班机。但他们的病情轻微，情况稳定，正在传染病中心接受治疗。而首名病患—新加坡管理大学女学生的情况也稳定。
　　针对病例的增加，卫生部长许文远不感意外。针对所有4名病患都是在美国旅行归来后被确定感染甲型H1N1流感病毒，他昨晚以电邮答复本报询问说，新加坡和美国之间的人流往来非常频繁，而病毒已在美国扩散开来，“所以我们不应该对这些输入病例的出现感到意外”。
　　他说：“我相当肯定，未来还会有更多病例出现。庆幸的是，病毒仍然相当温和，而这三起新病例的病情也相当稳定。如果他们没有其他潜在疾病，应该可以顺利康复。”
　　新病例是43岁女性新加坡永久居民、在本地工作的28岁美国女子和28岁的新加坡男子。卫生部并未透露他们的身份和其他资料。
　　43岁女性是搭乘新加坡航空公司SQ917航班，从美国旧金山途经菲律宾马尼拉，于星期二傍晚5时50分抵达新加坡。同天，她在飞机上感觉身体不适。她是坐在33H座位。
　　28岁美国女子也是在星期二抵达新加坡。她所搭乘的美国联合航空公司UA803，从美国夏威夷檀香山（Honolulu）起飞，途经东京，在晚上11时53分抵达。同天，她感觉身体不适。她在机上的座位是33C。
　　28岁新加坡男子则是在25日从芝加哥搭乘美国联合航空公司UA895班机，途经香港抵达新加坡，抵达时间是凌晨零时36分。他同样是在当天感觉不适。他的座位是55H。
　　跟发现第一起确诊病例的做法一样，当局立刻联络所有曾同病例有近距离接触的公众，包括同机乘客。
吁请附近乘客


又是美国
等到Citi 拿了钱后，H1N1病患突然爆增，我一点也不意外

tanhy

Chicago PMI: More Yellow Weeds



[size=100%]Bluntly,
the Chicago PMI was a disaster:

• Prices paid continued to signal broad deflation;
• Employment weakened further;
• New Orders and Order backlog indicated further softness;
• Buying policy reversed April's short boost and is collapsing

[size=100%]Bright spot:

• Production up one point from 42 to 43.

[size=100%]Note that the "bright spot" is really only a slowing in the rate of dimming, as numbers under 50 indicate contraction. So there's a slower rate of contraction - in one part of the index.
[size=100%]Two of the comments are particularly telling:

[size=100%]“If Obama continues to have the government take over and run the auto industry either by direct control or increased regulation, the recession will last for years.

[size=100%]“Euphoria seen in stock market has not been reflected in business conditions.

[size=100%]Now to be fair there were some positive comments. But the index numbers were awful.
[size=100%]Why is this important? Because ISM (the national index) comes out next week, and the Chicago PMI is often a good leading indicator for where that is going to wind up.
[size=100%]I see no "green shoots" - only gnarly weeds, and challenge people to show me where the true business improvement is supposed to be coming from.
[size=100%]I certainly don't see it, and the fact remains that the alleged "improvement" in the stock market over the last two months has been nothing other than a pump job, engineered in an attempt to flip consumer confidence and spur more (imprudent) borrowing by spurting capital into the market via buybacks of both mortgage and treasury debt (the former, I again repeat, being blatantly outside of Federal Reserve authority.)
[size=100%]The critical error in this strategy is that you can't borrow your way out of a credit binge hangover. That we are attempting to violate the laws of mathematics is clear: Home mortgage traffic is
dependent
on rates under 5%, as the recent spike higher
effectively shut down the finance pipeline - overnight.
[size=100%]This says loud and clear:
Prices are still too high and we continue to cram ourselves further into the "coffin corner."
[size=100%]Stock prices are ultimately all about profits, and nothing else.
[size=100%]How do you grow profits on a sustainable basis when assets refuse to clear without interest rates well below where market risk equilibrium takes them absent government interference?
[size=100%]The longer this continues, the worse the ultimate damage will be, and for those who pile back into the stock market at S& 900, don't tell me later that you weren't warned!

[size=100%]PMI 跌，证明商业环境没有好转
[size=100%]消费者的乐观只是一厢情愿，和被Obama政府骗了
[size=100%]如果消费者像我一样每天去读这些经济数据，他们还有本事乐观？

tanhy

我发现到CARI的卡贴是很明显的bug
每一次新的一面，就要卡到之前一面的page 数才会解
要不要我帮忙他们debug? 免费的

[ 本帖最后由 tanhy 于 30-5-2009 09:14 AM 编辑 ]

tanhy

Fed has 'reignited animal spirits,' Fisher says

29.05.2009 - “MarketWatch" Fed has 'reignited animal spirits,' Fisher says Dallas Fed chief warns of gathering storm clouds of fiscal imbalance WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Adding a new buzzword to the debate over how the economy is doing, the president of the Dallas Federal Reserve said Thursday that the actions of the central bank have "reignited animal spirits." In a speech to money managers in Washington, Richard Fisher said the Fed had "prevented us from falling into the chasm of an economic depression" by lowering interest rates to near zero and flooding markets with money. "To be sure, we are not out of the woods," he cautioned. Fisher pointed to signs of easier credit conditions in some funding markets, including renewed corporate-bond issuance, functioning commercial-paper markets, lower mortgage rates and higher stock prices. "This is not to be Pollyannaish or imply that these sprouts are spreading like kudzu," he said of the growing signs of green shoots sprouting up. "But the knock-on effect of the Fed's direct efforts does seem to have reignited animal spirits in markets that have been frozen." Fisher's wording is a direct reference to John Maynard Keynes' famous observation during the Depression -- that much of what we do economically is due to "animal spirits" rather than the rational calculations of utility-maximizing economic agents so beloved by ivory-tower economic theorists. Keynes defined animal spirits as "a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction" and a "spontaneous optimism." Much of Fisher's speech was a repeat of one he gave two weeks ago. In a new section, the president of the Dallas Fed warned at length that "storm clouds" were gathering on the horizon "in the form of daunting fiscal imbalances." Not only is the government spending vast sums now (which he said would be a good thing if it is well designed and propels the economy "farther away from the edge", but the government is also facing a $100 trillion shortfall in its entitlement promises. If the people believe the government won't fulfill those promises to provide retirement security and health care, then they will "spend less today to save more for tomorrow." More savings could be good, "but in an economy driven by consumption" such a change "could dampen the pace of future economic growth," he commented. Fisher urged Congress and President Barack Obama to "take this vexing beast of a problem by the horns and tame it." By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch

Fed 里的“大反派”又出来鸟人了

tanhy

Housing: 'We're About to Have a Big Problem'
[size=100%]Morris A. Davis of the University of Wisconsin seems to have hit the nail on the head in his assessment of the next wave of foreclosures in this NY Timesreport.

[size=100%]In the latest phase of the nation’s real estate disaster, the locus of trouble has shifted from subprime loans — those extended to home buyers with troubled credit — to the far more numerous prime loans issued to those with decent financial histories.

With many economists anticipating that the unemployment rate will rise into the double digits from its current 8.9 percent, foreclosures are expected to accelerate. That could exacerbate bank losses, adding pressure to the financial system and the broader economy.

“We’re about to have a big problem,”
said Morris A. Davis, a real estate expert at the University of Wisconsin.
“Foreclosures were bad last year? It’s going to get worse.”

First it was the flippers, then it was the subprime borrowers, and now it's the prime borrowers - those who have lost their job or some portion of their income or, for whatever other reason in a souring economy, can no longer afford to make their mortgage payments.

[size=100%]And it should come as no surprise that prime mortgages are defaulting at the fastest pace in all the former housing bubble states.

[size=100%]From November to February, the number of prime mortgages that were delinquent at least 90 days, were in foreclosure or had deteriorated to the point that the lender took possession of the home increased more than 473,000, exceeding 1.5 million, according to a New York Times analysis of data provided by First American CoreLogic, a real estate research group. Those loans totaled more than $224 billion.

During the same period, subprime mortgages in those three categories increased by fewer than 14,000, reaching 1.65 million. The number of similarly troubled Alt-A loans — those given to people with slightly tainted credit — rose 159,000, to 836,000.

Over all, more than four million loans worth $717 billion were in the three distressed categories in February,
a jump of more than 60 percent in dollar terms compared with a year earlier.

Under a program announced in February by the Obama administration, the government is to spend $75 billion on incentives for mortgage servicing companies that reduce payments for troubled homeowners. The Treasury Department says the program will spare as many as four million homeowners from foreclosure.

But three months after the program was announced, a Treasury spokeswoman, Jenni Engebretsen, estimated
the number of loans that have been modified at “more than 10,000 but fewer than 55,000.[size=100%]”

In the first two months of the year alone, another 313,000 mortgages landed in foreclosure or became delinquent at least 90 days, according to First American CoreLogic.

“I don’t think there’s any chance of government measures making more than a small dent,” said Alan Ruskin, chief international strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital.

It should be an interesting summer for the housing market and the days ahead hold some intrigue as well - the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index will be released later this morning, followed by reports on both new and existing home sales later in the week.

stanleymyc

现在我们不管这些了，股市已经在康复了，星期一又要见新高了（去年十月过后）。

可能下一论要等到九月了。。

tanhy

原帖由 stanleymyc 于 30-5-2009 10:30 AM 发表 现在我们不管这些了，股市已经在康复了，星期一又要见新高了（去年十月过后）。可能下一论要等到九月了。。

现在更像玩狼来了的游戏

有些人说"Sell in May, get away", 5月不跌，反而搞到这些人作天last minute補厂

lemontee

原帖由 tanhy 于 30-5-2009 11:51 AM 发表

现在更像玩狼来了的游戏

有些人说"Sell in May, get away", 5月不跌，反而搞到这些人作天last minute補厂

也许下个月会有人说 “  Sell in June , get away"

tanhy

原帖由 lemontee 于 30-5-2009 12:18 PM 发表 也许下个月会有人说 “  Sell in June , get away"

只有神才知道几月会跌(不过Bernanke应该也知道），不过股价终究会回归基本
Buy on rumors, sell on fact

tanhy

http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/

美元又跌了，这样下去，石油和commodities 不起才怪
石油一起，通货膨胀又来，美国消费者虽然信心高涨，荷包里却没有几分钱，更不用说要靠他们推动经济


Fed要靠他们救市只是一厢情愿

欠债还钱，天公地道

鼓励欠了一屁股债的人再借钱。。。

Timothy Geitner 出使中国，首要任务是叫中国继续买美国国债
不过我相信下场不会比Fisher 好