为什么韩国的处境这么糟糕?

klagigi

原帖由 hoollly 于 25-10-2008 10:29 PM 发表
这么多人讨厌韩国人,证明韩国社会需要深刻反省他们的流行文化.

那么自负和骄横的民族反省的可能性等于0

江山易改，本性难移。。

-CLEMENT-

看来很多人都很讨厌韩国人。。。
不过韩国女孩子蛮美的

klagigi

今年韩国第三季度经济增长率达三年来最低

朝鲜日报记者 郑喆焕 (2008.10.25 10:04)

韩国银行24日公布，受全球金融危机等因素的影响，再加上出口低迷和内需不振，今年韩国第三季度的国内生产总值（GDP）增长率仅为3.9%（和去年同期相比）。以季度为准这是三年以来的最低值。

今年第四季度的增长率也可能低于当初的预测值，因此，政府的年增长率目标值(4.5%至4.9%)很难实现。另外，表现韩国经济购买力的实际国内总收入(GDI)第三季度因受高油价影响而比前一个季度减少了3.0%.

klagigi

韩国银行向证券公司紧急注资2万亿韩元

朝鲜日报记者 全洙龙 (2008.10.25 10:16)  

韩国银行24日向证券公司和资产运用公司紧急注资2万亿韩元。政府将与银行签署谅解备忘录(MOU)，条件是为银行1000亿美元对外债务提供付款担保，但银行要降低家庭和中小企业贷款利率。

韩国银行当天表示：“韩国银行通过在一定时期内购买证券金融公司持有的货币稳定证券或国库券等的方式向证券公司、资产运用公司注入规模达2万亿韩元的流动性资金。”

股价暴跌后，机构投资者会为应对股票型基金的兑付现象而抛售股票，这样会再次导致股价暴跌，这次政府措施正是为了切断这种恶性循环。这是上次金融危机以后，韩国银行首次向非银行金融机构提供流动性。

韩国银行一位相关负责人表示：“考虑到货币乘数效应，此举会产生投入超过50万亿韩元的效果。”

金融委员会当天在国会政务委员会上发表紧急悬案报告时表示：“11月初之前将签订谅解备忘录，内容包括银行以接受政府援助为条件，将家庭贷款利率保持在适当的水平并延长中小企业的贷款期限等提供流动性的计划。”

住宅担保贷款利率最快将于下月中旬降低。

klagigi

海外看好韩国经济：不会再度遭遇金融危机

朝鲜日报记者 金起勋 (2008.10.25 11:30)  

在一些外国投资者和媒体纷纷对韩国经济发表悲观言论的情况下，陆续出现了认为韩国不会遭遇上次金融风暴类似危机的乐观主张。《纽约时报》24日在经济版刊登了题为《无国境灾难》的报道，介绍韩国经济的现状后表示：“亚洲强国（powerhouse，韩国）在经历1998年金融危机后再次面临威胁。”但该报道同时表示：“经济学家预测说，随着世界金融危机趋于稳定，韩国也能战胜困难。”

此前，德国赫拉巴商业银行23日在题为《韩国是否如履薄冰》的报告中评价说：“只要海外贷款条件没有极度恶化，韩国就没有必要过于担心经济会后退。”

该报告分析道，韩国外汇储备充足、企业负债减少等民间领域保持健全，因此没有受到美国和欧洲金融机构破产的太大影响。

《金融时报》德语版22日表示，全球金融危机让韩国回忆起1997年的噩梦，但情况像当时那样恶化的可能性很小。

klagigi

原帖由 -CLEMENT- 于 26-10-2008 12:02 AM 发表
看来很多人都很讨厌韩国人。。。
不过韩国女孩子蛮美的

都是整容美人来的。。整容后还不美就惨咯。。。

-CLEMENT-

不过最近也很多人喜欢看韩剧

klagigi

The Korea Herald

[GLOBAL CREDIT CRISIS AND KOREAN ECONOMY (1)]Dark clouds cast on Korean economy

This is the first in a series of articles on the impact of the global credit crisis on the Korean economy. -Ed.

Fears are growing that the Korean economy is heading into a prolonged slowdown, as macroeconomic indicators, including the latest growth rate, are spiraling downward.

Experts agree that the economic downturn will worsen going into next year as recession fears are globally spreading from the United States and Europe to Japan, China, Singapore and other parts of the world.

The problem is, they say, it is almost impossible to predict when exactly the local economy will start to recover, because the current crisis was mostly derived from external shocks such as the global financial turmoil that started on Wall Street.  

Korea's third-quarter GDP growth rate announced yesterday is a clear sign that the 10-year expansion of Asia's fourth-largest economy may have come to an end, and a contraction period has begun, observers said.  

The nation's GDP grew 0.6 percent in the third quarter, the slowest pace in four years. Annualized growth rate also decelerated fast to 3.9 percent in the third quarter from 4.8 percent in the previous quarter.

Most local economic think tanks have lowered their growth forecasts for next year to 3 percent levels, ranging from 3.5 to 3.9 percent. Both Samsung Economic Research Institute and LG Economic Research Institute project the economy will grow 3.6 percent next year.  

The International Monetary Fund also revised down the growth forecast for Korea to 3.5 percent from its June projection of 4.3 percent.

Macquarie even said Korea will end up expanding only 2.5 percent in 2009, because weak global demand will force export growth rates to rapidly decelerate from the current two-digit figures to 6 percent.

"A further slowdown of the local economy will be inevitable in 2009," said Lee Bu-hyoung, a research fellow at Hyundai Economic Research Institute.  

"Weakening global and domestic demands will hurt Korea's exports and output growth, which will be accompanied by continued financial instability."

Domestic demand, which takes up the largest part of the GDP growth, has turned gloomy during the past year, as consumers closed their wallets on high inflation and corporate investment shrank due to falling profits.

Annualized domestic demand growth slowed from 3.6 percent in the third quarter of last year to 1.7 percent in the third quarter this year, according to data by the Bank of Korea.  

Exports, largely driven by conglomerates such as Samsung Electronics and POSCO, have sustained most of the GDP growth so far this year.

However, slowing demands in Korea's major overseas markets in China and the United States are sapping exports bit by bit, and outlook for next year is gloomy, analysts said.

Growth rate of exports plunged to 8.1 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier. It is the first time that the year-on-year export growth rate has fallen to a single-digit figure since the third quarter of last year.  

Chronic capital account deficit and a faltering trade balance forced Korea to log a $13 billion current account deficit during the first eight months of the year, putting the country in the red for the first time in 10 years.

Worries on the growing current account deficit and dollar shortage at banks have exacerbated financial instability in Korea, leading the benchmark stock index to shed almost half from the highest peak 2,000-level last year. The local currency has dropped 33 percent against the dollar so far this year.

Households feel increasingly pinched with their asset values going down, while they have to simultaneously deal with high interest rates for mortgage loans and high prices of grocery products.  

Inflation, despite the recent retreat in international oil prices, remained at high levels this year.  

The National Statistical Office's latest consumer price index hit 5.1 percent in December.

Not once inflation was within the BOK's inflation target range of 2.5 to 3.5 percent this year, mainly due to high oil prices.

The job market is bad too. The economy added only 112,000 jobs last month, compared with 282,000 from a year earlier.  

Experts are sharply split over whether the current economic conditions are worse than those during the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, when the foreign currency-strapped economy had to receive IMF's $58 billion bailout.

Government officials like Deputy Finance Minister Shin Je-yoon and some economists like Kim Hyeon-wook, a research fellow at the Korea Development Institute, believe that the problem is not worse than in the past.

KDI's Kim said that the lessons learned from the Asian financial crisis a decade ago have made Korean firms better manage their liabilities and that Korea now has a sizable $240 billion in foreign reserves.  

The faster-than-expected government's rescue plans and upcoming extra measures will help stabilize the markets, he said.  

However, Korea Economic Research Institute's researcher Bae Sang-keun is more pessimistic.

"A decade ago, we had markets to sell our products overseas. Now, they're disappearing," Bae said

"Secondly, the leading indices fell for the ninth month in August due to a rapid decline in business sentiment. It means that the economy already lost steam even before the debacle of Wall Street in September hit the country, he said.  

By Kim Yoon-mi

(yoonmi@heraldm.com)

2008.10.25

[ 本帖最后由 klagigi 于 26-10-2008 01:08 AM 编辑 ]

klagigi

Growth forecasts stoke recession concerns

Korea's economy probably grew at the weakest pace in four years last quarter, stoking concern a recession is looming as consumers cut spending and the global downturn erodes export demand.
Gross domestic product rose 0.6 percent from the previous quarter, when it advanced 0.8 percent, according to the median estimate of 16 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The report is due at 8 a.m. in Seoul today.

The won slumped 32 percent this year, the region's worst performer, and the stock index tumbled to the lowest since 2005 as the global credit crisis stifles economic growth, threatening recessions in the U.S., Europe and parts of Asia. South Korean manufacturers and retailers are cutting workers as demand eases and builders are reeling under the largest backlog of unsold homes in a decade.
"Korea's economy is definitely heading down," said Daniel Soh, a regional economist at Forecast Pte in Singapore. "The construction industry is a major worry. The economy will slow into a recession; it's happening all over the world."

Economic growth cooled to 3.7 percent last quarter from a year earlier, the weakest since 2005, according to the survey.  Korea this week pledged $130 billion, equivalent to 14 percent of GDP, to support lenders as the credit crunch saps local banks' access to foreign funds. The government also said it will spend as much as 8 trillion won ($6 billion) to shore up the property industry, including buying land and unsold homes.
The flagging economy, currently in its 10th year of expansion, reinforces expectations the central bank will cut borrowing costs further. The Bank of Korea lowered the benchmark rate to 5 percent on Oct. 9, the first reduction in four years.

Korean President Lee Myung-bak said this week that the current global financial meltdown is more severe than the currency crisis that swept the region a decade ago.  Still, the financial-aid plan, coupled with the government's relatively low debt and ample foreign reserves, may help South Korea avert a repeat of 1997 when it needed an emergency $57 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund, the three main ratings companies signaled this week.
Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings affirmed South Korea's sovereign credit ratings on Oct. 21. Standard & Poor's, which last week sparked the won's biggest one-day drop since 1997 by placing the nation's five biggest banks on review for a rating cut, said the government's package is more "swift and broad" than expected.

Kwon Goohoon, an economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expects South Korea's economy will avoid a recession as lower interest rates and extra government spending help shore up domestic demand and as the won's slump aids exporters.  "We take comfort from the government's action to provide a backstop to the economy," Kwon said. "The government has been running budget surpluses for eight years, so it has the capacity and willingness to use fiscal and monetary flexibility to help limit downside risks."
South Korea's debt ratio is close to the lowest among major economies, said the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The government's financial liabilities stood at 28 percent of GDP in 2006, compared with Japan's 180 percent and 62 percent in the U.S., according to the OECD Web site.

The nation's $240 billion in foreign reserves are the world's sixth-biggest holdings. South Korea on Oct. 19 agreed to give lenders access to $30 billion in U.S. dollars and guarantee $100 billion of foreign-currency debt.  "We are a lot better equipped than 10 years ago," Jun Kwang-woo, chairman of the Financial Services Commission, said in an interview this week. "We certainly have the right kind of support mechanism to be used whenever it is needed."
Growth is cooling across Asia, where China's expansion slowed to the weakest in five years last quarter, Japan's economy shrank in the second quarter and Singapore tumbled into a recession.

POSCO, Asia's biggest maker of stainless steel, said this week it will slash planned output by about a third this quarter and rival South Korean steelmakers may also cut production to cope with moderating demand. (Bloomberg)


2008.10.24

klagigi

病入膏肓的韩国经济，领导能力是问题
南润昊 记者 | 2008.10.25 08:19


韩国股指KOSPI1000点。但是这里的1000点并不是比999多1或比1001少1的连续数列中的一个简单数字，而是象征股价变化趋势的重要转折点。连这一关都守不住了，投资者们该有多脆弱和绝望。

韩国经济规模位列世界第13位，外汇储备位居世界第6位，但是在国际金融危机中所受的影响却比发展中国家还要大，这是为什么呢？既不是经济基础条件差，也不是没有实力，最重要的原因是国民的不安心理所引发的过度反应。那又是什么造成了心理的不安呢？一句话，就是领导水平的局限。国家领导的表现软弱无力导致投资韩国市场的投资者全都人心惶惶。如今的危机不能只怪外部环境，到了这个时候，危机不再是天灾，而是人祸了。

最重要的是看不到能让人放心的“金融将军”把门。为了增加对中小企业的援助，政府万般无奈加大限定总贷款额，但最终还是未果。明摆着是想先尝试一下看看，不行的话再重新想办法。

但是，所有的一切都是总统的责任。不能怪部长未尽全力，也不能怨韩国银行总裁死要坚持。让这样的人担任这样的职务明明是错误的，却还是不管不问，这些都是总统领导能力的问题。

然而，现在还为时不晚。如今还有足够的时间让总统站到国民面前来解释。为何国家受到如此大的影响？国民们应该如何面对？同时政府会如何走出现在的危机……所有的这一切都需要总统来进行解释，以便让国民们放心。同时，应该肯定的是最终的责任还是由总统来承担。

事实上，韩国经济的实力已不同于以往。外汇危机时，韩国企业的负债比例为400%，现在降到了96.4%。韩国也有了三星电子、浦项制铁等世界性的大企业。自有资本（BIS）比例为10.5%，在国际上属于较高水平。 韩国投资信托说：“以韩国经济的实力绝不能就这样垮下。”有着这样过去的韩国若无法抵御这次危机的话，就一定是领导人有问题了。

[ 本帖最后由 klagigi 于 26-10-2008 01:17 AM 编辑 ]

klagigi

[采访日记]韩国经济如何摆脱外国人的错觉
崔荧奎 驻香港记者 | 2008.10.24 10:25


10月22日，韩国经济部门的高层官员在香港香格里拉酒店召开了将近1个半小时以当地一百多名金融界人士为对象的韩国经济说明会。前一天在日本东京召开了同样的说明会，这是第二次国外说明会。他按照部门类别展示了韩国经济基本资料，并用流畅的英文进行了背景解说。参会人员的反响非常好。

正式说明会结束后，参会人员的问题还是一个接一个。其中主要问题都是与韩元汇率有关的。大家对韩国的各项经济指标都很稳定的情况下韩元的汇率却像跷跷板一样上上下下的原因以及韩国政府的对策相当关心。参会者互相表示，“对于理解基本的韩国经济有很大帮助”，“说明会的时间再长点，这样的机会再多些就好了”，“各部门的专家出来做一个详细的说明就好了”等等。笔者对这些话的理解是参会者们对韩国经济很感兴趣，之前却没有机会获得准确的信息。

召开说明会的韩国官员在被问到感受时，第一句话就是：“对于（外国投资者）不知道韩国经济的基本数据感到非常吃惊。”他说，“有相当一部分人对韩国的印象还停留在1997年的亚洲金融危机上，在东京也是类似的情况。”

近来香港的媒体中有关韩国经济危机的报道很多。其中有不少不正确的内容。最近香港权威报纸《明报》和《文汇报》等刊载了“韩国经济危机”的报道，几乎原封不动的引用了最初提出韩国经济危机论的英国《金融时报（FT）》等主要外国报纸的报道。“韩国的外汇储备虽然已超过2000亿美元，但是实际上可用的不过数百亿美元，商业银行的短期流动性危机在增大，陷入第二次外汇危机的可能性很大”云云。故近来香港的经济人见到韩国经济人的第一句话就是“韩国经济还好吧”。韩国经济无缘无故地挨了一巴掌。问题是因此韩国经济可能会进一步恶化。现在是政府尽快准备对策的时候了。

klagigi

原帖由 密码侦探 于 25-10-2008 10:37 PM 发表
HYUNDAI会不会倒闭？

应该没那么容易吧。。。

现代汽车第三季度盈利暴跌70％韩爱兰 记者 | 2008.10.24 09:54

由于受到工会罢工和全球市场需求减少的影响，现代汽车第三季度的业绩出现了大幅下跌。

现代汽车于10月23日召开了企业说明会，并公布了企业业绩。第三季度的销售额为6.545兆韩元，盈利为1045亿韩元。销售额与去年同期相比减少14.5％，而盈利减少70.7％。现代汽车在今年第一和第二季度创造了历史上最高的业绩。

该公司财经本部长兼副社长郑泰焕解释说：“劳资纠纷使得生产进度延缓，再加上全球经济不景气和中国经济增长放缓，公司产品的内销（减少16.7％）和出口（减少12.9％）都比去年同期有所减少。”出口车辆的平均单价从上半年的1.4万美元下调至1.1万美元也是导致销售额减少的原因之一。因为昂贵的大型车和多功能运动型轿车（SUV）的销量减少，伊兰特（Avante）、雅绅特（Verna）和Click这种小型车的销量多了起来。

汇率上升也是造成盈利大幅缩水的原因。为车辆无偿担保准备的销售担保准备金因为汇率上升，增加了大约3000亿韩元。

但是，现代汽车预计将在第四季度挽回这样的疲软态势。现代汽车财务管理室室长朴东旭（音）说：“虽然第三季度的出口额只有29亿美元，但预计第四季度的出口额将会是第三季度的两倍。现代汽车产品中小型车的比重比较大（占49％），而且市场也均匀地分散在各个区域，因此与日本车相比处于有利位置。”现代汽车预计，如果第四季度业绩转好的话，完全能够完成今年年初制定的销售目标（33兆韩元）和盈利率（6.5％）。只是全球销售数量将会比年初制定的311万辆的目标少9万辆，只有302万辆左右。

现代汽车预计，明年全球市场对汽车的需求将萎缩，不过青睐燃比值较高的小型车的现象依然会持续。现代汽车公司副社长郑泰焕说：“即使汽车需求减少，全球市场还有将近7000万辆的需求。今后公司将制定攻击性的销售计划，把危机当作机会来应对。”

klagigi

韩国金融业急需中国资金救市金善河 记者 | 2008.10.23 08:22

10月22日，金融当局和证券公司面对连日下跌的韩国证券市场，为了能够获得中国的资金输血，全体出动前往北京。据判断，美国和英国的资金由于金融危机急剧减少，它们从韩国证券市场抽走了资金，在韩国证券市场的股价下跌的时候落井下石。韩国国内证券市场（以交易所为基准）中外国人持有的股票比重已经从去年年末的32.4％下跌到10月21日的29.5％。一位专家表示：“现在全世界还具有投资能力的只有中国和中东的资金了。”

金融委员会和韩国证券业协会当天在北京面向200多名中国的银行·证券公司相关人士举行了首次投资说明会。50多名韩国国内的证券和资产运营公司职员和分析家们参加了该会，就韩国的经济情况和信息技术、汽车等产业的前景进行了说明。金融委员长全光宇说：“韩国的外汇储备额位列全世界第6位，企业和金融公司的财务状况也良好。现在的情况和过去1997年外汇危机时候的情况已经完全不同。”证券协会会长黄健豪也为了引资强调说：“韩国的证券市场最近发生了很多质变，例如被选进了发达国家证券指数等。”

当天的活动中，澳大利亚投资的韩国麦考瑞（Macquarie）集团会长约翰·沃克作为演讲者，吸引了众人的目光。他说：“认为韩国对外国的投资持敌对态度的看法是一种误解。目前韩国企业的股价和企业的基础实力相比属于超跌状态，现在是投资韩国的最好机会。”

中国银行监督委员会6月份开始允许中国的银行投资韩国证券市场。国际金融中心预测未来的两、三年时间里会有60亿美元（约8兆韩元）的中国资金进入韩国。参加了该活动的中国最大的证券公司——中信证券的资产运用负责首席代表唐红林说：“韩国证券市场和中国相比是更为成熟的市场。我对韩国重工业、化学、汽车股很感兴趣。”

但是也有认为期待中国资金大举进入韩国证券市场也不是那么容易的事情。进入中国市场的某韩国证券公司相关人士说：“由于世界性的金融危机，中国的机构投资也萎缩了很多。特别是目前这个时期，还很难说韩国证券市场的投资价值很高，能吸引人。”

◆ 韩·中“金融热线”

金融委员会当天表示：委员长全光宇和中国银行、证券监督委员会主席之间已经就韩中设立“金融热线”达成了协议。开设热线的目的是为了两国能够更加迅速地共同应对全世界范围扩散的金融危机。中国方面也承诺会给予在中国当地的韩国银行更为宽松的资金供给。全光宇委员长当天和记者会面，说道：“现在这个时期，我认为还没有必要扩充银行资本，扩大对于储户的保护，但是一旦有这样的需要，任何时候都可以实施相关措施。”

hoollly

韩元汇率再次暴跌 日元贷款恐成第二KIKOhttp://chn.chosun.com/site/data/ ... 20081125000005.html朝鲜日报记者 赵仪俊 (2008.11.25 09:15)日元对韩元比价连续五天刷新历史最高纪录，逼近100比1600。美元对韩元比价也在10年零8个月后，越过了1500韩元水平线。24日在首尔外汇市场，美元对韩元比价比上周末上涨18韩元，收于1比1513。这是自1998年3月31日（1521韩元）以后，汇率收盘价首次涨破1500韩元水平线。虽然韩元对美元的价值下降，但是日元对美元的价值却呈强势，因此当天日元对韩元比价升至100比1585.12。而日元对韩元比价在上世纪90年代发生金融危机时也没有超过1150韩元。随着日元汇率暴涨，从银行借贷日元的中小企业还贷负担剧增，人们担忧日元贷款可能导致“第二KIKO”危机。以10月底为准，国民、企业、新韩和韩亚四家商业银行发放的日元贷款余额达到7872亿日元。

bryon

讨厌归讨厌
要把个人的preference跟analysis隔离

Samsung's Share Of US Handset Market Surpasses Motorola
Samsung has ousted the American handset maker from its number one position in the US market. Research firm Strategy Analytics reports that the Korean electronics maker edged ahead in the third quarter taking 22.4 percent of the US handset market, compared with Motorola which had a 21.1 percent share. It also reported that the US market grew 6 percent in the third quarter, with 47 million handsets shipped.

The US--the world's single largest handset market--has been Motorola's traditional stronghold, where it accounts for half of the company's total sales of mobile devices, about $1.55 billion in Q3. Strategy Analytics found that Samsung's ability to deliver an "attractive high-tier handset portfolio" for the big four operators "proved crucial" in helping it take the leading market share in the US. Don't expect Motorola to take back that title anytime soon. In its Q3 earnings call, the handset maker expects Q4 to be worse in terms of sales, while the first half of 2009 will be hit as the company tries to retrench and shift its mobile handset strategy.
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Moreover, its competition is only increasing. Korean rival LG (SEO: 066570) has a 20.5 percent share, giving it the third biggest share of the market. It's not difficult to see it overtaking Motorola in the coming quarters. Strategy Analytics also found that smartphone maker RIM ( NSDQ: RIMM) maintained its double digit growth marketshare for the second straight quarter in Q3, giving it a 10.2 percent of the US market. Apple ( NSDQ: AAPL) too is coming up. It has a 5.7 percent share of the market putting it in sixth position. Nokia ( NYSE: NOK), meanwhile, which has struggled to gain traction in the US market has an 8.4 percent share of the market, putting it in 5th position.

hoollly

韩国家庭月均实际收入首次减少                               
                                朝鲜日报记者 金荣镇  (2009.02.28 09:58)
                                                                                                                                                        韩国统计厅27日表示，受经济低迷的影响，韩国全国家庭去年的月均实际收入从307.71万韩元减少到307.17万韩元，减少了0.2%.这是自2003年开始制定该项统计以后，反映物价上涨率的实际收入增加率首次出现负值。调查结果显示，所有家庭中约有三分之一(29.4%)属于为了生活费而借钱的“赤字家庭”。

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           朝鲜日报中文网 chn.chosun.com

>我研究世界经济,可以得到结论那就是,韩国人是比美国人还要厉害用信用卡的国家,位居世界第一.

cct2049

韩国推崇美式消费文化
造成个人债台高筑
是造成这次困境的一大因素

eddylim0000

哈哈。。。
自己的货币贬值。。。
造成外债也相对的增加。。。
再加上银行不肯借钱。。。
那韩国就掺了。。。

cct2049

原帖由 klagigi 于 26-10-2008 12:13 AM 发表

都是整容美人来的。。整容后还不美就惨咯。。。