PE=2.x 的 HPI ； PCCS vs Global Warming; 越南金峰 - 成长中的夕阳股

os

如果下两季可以取得和上两季一样的成绩，PE 可以来到 2.9x，ROE 可以来到 13.4x
业务普通罢了，卖索胶袋和纸箱。
PE 如此低，当然债务也偏高。
前年高油价，结果亏钱。
如今油价走低，柬埔寨游客旺盛，政局稳定，有望好转。
看来柬埔寨将是 Chan 的HPI 和 PCCS 的另一片天地了。

HPI 的客户有大家熟悉的:
Ajinomoto
Top Thermo Mfg
Flextronics Manufacturing
Top Gloves Corporation BHD
Moi Food Malaysia SDN BHD
BSA Group

[ 本帖最后由 os 于 22-7-2007 09:13 AM 编辑 ]

os

华隆大厂才刚刚关掉，外面又要进来。。。

22-01-2007: Textile FDI shifting from China to M’sia
By Kevin Tan  Email us your feedback at fd@bizedge.com

Foreign direct investments (FDIs) are shifting back to Malaysia from China, at least in the textile industry, with some multinationals planning to relocate their operations ahead of the signing of the Malaysia-US Free Trade Agreement (FTA).

According to the Malaysian Textile Manufacturers Association (MTMA), the multinational textile makers are relocating parts of their China operations to Malaysia and are ramping up production to take advantage of the impending FTA.

“I know of a company that is adding a new factory building (to increase production capacity) while another is moving its cutting division from China to Malaysia,” MTMA executive director Andrew Hong told FinancialDaily in an interview recently.

The factory that was relocating its cutting division back to Malaysia would potentially create 2,000 new jobs, he said.

“That is just one company.”

While declining to name the companies, he said they were multinational corporations. “This is how FDI will flow back to Malaysia and new ones are created.”

MTMA is the national body representing all sectors of the textile and apparel manufacturing industry, with its members accounting for more than 80% of the total equity of the textile industry in Malaysia.

Malaysia exported RM10.3 billion worth of textile products in 2005, with more than 20% of them going to the US, which is the Malaysian textile industry’s biggest market.

Hong said the FTA would have a “huge impact” on the industry as Malaysian textile products to the US were currently slapped with a tariff of between 12% and 32%.

“With the FTA, this import duty will be abolished,” he added.

Coupled with Malaysia’s image in the US as a producer of high quality products and its timely delivery of goods, Hong said Malaysia’s textile exports to the US would increase.

Meanwhile, Malaysian Knitting Manufacturers Association (MKMA) executive secretary Rebecca Chiang said the textile industry would benefit the most from the FTA.

“Compared with other industries, we are most involved in the negotiations. In the first and third rounds of negotiations held in Penang and Kuala Lumpur respectively, the industry hosted dinners for the US and Malaysian negotiators to attend,” she added.

Chiang also said the textile industry was the only sector which sent representatives to monitor the second round of negotiations in Washington DC.

Malaysia’s textile exports are expected to expand by between 5% and 7% in 2006 in tandem with a 7% growth seen during the January to September period.

Malaysia’s textile exports grew 6.2% year-on-year in 2005 despite stiff competition from countries such as China, Hong said.

“Looking at the sub-sector, there was already an increase of 13% for the export of apparel between January and September (2006),” he added.

He also said the industry’s outlook for the medium term remained the same in 2007 with an export growth of between 5% and 7%.

os

February 2 2007

WASHINGTON: A key US lawmaker on Wednesday called on the administration of President George W. Bush to suspend free trade talks with Malaysia in protest over its mega energy deal with nuclear renegade Iran.
Tom Lantos, the head of the US House of Representatives' top foreign affairs panel, described as "abhorrent" the US$16 billion (US$1 = RM3.50) deal signed in January between the state-owned National Iranian Oil Company and Malaysia's SKS Group.


"That is why today I am sending a letter to our trade representative, Susan Schwab, requesting that all negotiations between the United States and Malaysia on a free trade agreement (FTA) be suspended until Malaysia renounces this proposed deal," Lantos told a Congressional hearing.


The US and Malaysia, a predominantly Muslim and growing South-East Asian economy, are preparing for a fifth and crucial round of negotiations to frame a FTA before Bush's powers to strike free trade deals expire in June.


In his letter to US Trade Representative Schwab, a copy of which was obtained by AFP, Lantos said the Malaysia-Iran deal was a "disturbing development that I believe requires swift action by the Administration." The US Congress recently extended and strengthened the Iran Sanctions Act, requiring sanctions against companies involved in Iranian energy development "as is potentially the case here," Lantos said.


The 25-year deal was to develop the Ferdos and Golshan offshore gas fields in south-Eastern Iran and establish liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants.


"Since the fundamental purpose of any FTA is to strengthen cooperation consistent with broader US strategic goals, I believe we have a right to expect the Government of Malaysia to join us in condemning this LNG deal and, more importantly, to make certain that it is nullified before we proceed with further trade negotiations," Lantos said.


Malaysia, he added, stood to benefit greatly from an FTA with the US and "it is important that our trade partners are not engaged, actively or passively, in undermining our most basic security policies." The USTR office said it was studying Lantos' request but gave no detailed comment. - AFP

x x x

这种鸡毛小事，布斯睬他都傻

os

By Isabelle Francis
Email us your feedback at fd@bizedge.com

Malaysia has objected to a US lawmaker’s call to suspend the free trade agreement (FTA) talks with the US because of a business deal by a Malaysian company with the National Iranian Oil Company.

Malaysia’s Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Miti) said on Feb 2 the call by Tom Lantos, a top Democratic lawmaker, to suspend the FTA talks due to the business deal “does not augur well for the negotiations”.

“No country can determine how companies in another country should conduct business,” it said, in response to a call by Tom Lantos, a top Democratic lawmaker, for the US to halt the trade talks.

According to a Bloomberg report, Lantos called for the halt in the talks with Malaysia to punish it for the decision by SKS Ventures Sdn Bhd to develop two gas fields in Iran’s section of the Persian Gulf. Lantos is chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

In its response to Lantos’ statement, Miti said Malaysia was prepared to continue with the negotiations to conclude a FTA beneficial to both parties.

It said that it believed the FTA would open opportunities for market access for Malaysian exporters, attract more foreign direct investment, and enhance capacity building.

“But, Malaysia reiterates that the FTA negotiations cannot be held hostage to any political demand, and cannot be conducted under such threats. Malaysia is also ready to suspend negotiations if the situation warrants it,” it said.

So far, Malaysia has negotiated with the US in four rounds, with the next and fifth round is scheduled to be held on Feb 5-9.

Miti said the negotiations commenced with understanding that it would be conducted without political agenda and interference into domestic policies.

x x x x


首相：不为协定低头 大马抗拒美政治压力 2007/02/02 18:44:29
●南洋商报

甲抛峇底2日讯-首相拿督斯里阿都拉巴达威说，大马拒绝美国与我国展开自贸协定谈判期间，对我国施加任何政治压力。

他说，这项协定仍在谈判阶段，我国绝对不会为了这项协定而向美国的压力低头。

他说：“我们拒绝加诸在我们身上的压力，我们是拥有主权的国家，我们有自己的立场。”

阿都拉今日为这里社区学院重塑品牌主持推介礼后，向记者这么说。

他是针对美国要我国与伊朗断绝贸易关系，作为马美自贸协定谈判成功的一项条件，作出回应。

阿都拉说，美国无权阻止我国与任何国家交易，即使在我国与该国签署自贸协定之后。

“勿把政治贸易混为一谈”

询及我国这项立场会否造成马美贸易关系受影响，阿都拉说：“我们仍坚持本身的立场，在政治，我们有不同的见解，我们坚持自己的立场，不要把政治与贸易混为一谈。现在就听他们怎么说。”

询及我国是否打算重新检讨上述协定，阿都拉说：“再看。”

国际贸易及工业部长拿督斯里拉菲达则表示，她准备劝政府即刻取消有关谈判。

拉菲达说，第五轮也就是关键回合的谈判能否成功，就看美国领袖是否重视这项将惠及两国的协定。

我国同意与美国展开自贸协定谈判的前提条件包括不涉政治议程，协定，并以市场为基础，两国政府不可干预彼此的内政。

os

Stories By Maryann Tan
Email us your feedback at fd@bizedge.com

The numbers 338 and 339 have great significance to those in the garment business. They are the category numbers for cotton knit, round-neck and collared shirts, the most common products manufactured by Malaysian garment companies.
Categories 338 and 339 also make up part of the sensitive and highly protected categories in the US garment market. Even after the quotas were abolished with the expiry of the WTO Agreement on Textiles and Clothing in 2005, Malaysian manufacturers have found it difficult to exploit the US garment market.

"The numbers 338 and 339 are hot categories. We don't have to worry about quotas anymore but the import duties are still an irritant," grumbles Tan Ching Yong, senior vice-president of Axis Incorporation Bhd, a Johor-based contract manufacturer for brands like GAP, Puma and Macy.

Notoriously protective of its textiles and garments market, US import duties on Malaysian garments range from 12% to 20%. Even without quotas, US imports of apparel from Malaysia grew a mere 0.02% in 2005.
Like the rest of the industry, Tan has high hopes that made-in-Malaysia T-shirts will be able to enter the US market, free of duties, when Malaysia and the US conclude talks on a proposed free trade agreement (FTA).
"If there are no more duties, we will consider expanding our sample room facilities in Malaysia and we could bring high-value garment manufacturing back to Malaysia," he says.
Tan reckons he would need to hire between 500 and 1,000 workers if he does. Axis laid off 500 workers when it moved manufacturing facilities from Johor to Vietnam and Cambodia in 2004.
This opportunity for Axis to create jobs for Malaysians seems like excellent news to domestic policymakers, but it will only happen if those import duties are actually removed.

Realistically, can Malaysia wring out a concession from the Americans to eliminate import duties and subsidies of their sensitive sectors?
It seems unlikely when even other developed countries have failed to gain meaningful access to the US agricultural market through an FTA.

Australia, for instance, wanted higher quotas for its sugar exports to the US but it failed to win even a spoonful. Australia's increased beef quotas under the Australia-US FTA was confined to low-grade beef and spread over 18 years.
There's also the question of whether the US Trade Representative (USTR) can legally offer more to its prospective FTA partner.
By law, the USTR only has executive powers to offer a reduction in tariffs that exceed 5% by no more than half.
So, at best, categories 338 and 339, namely cotton knit, round-neck and collared shirts, can have their tariffs lowered to about 10%. That may be insufficient for Axis to consider moving back here. And that's not even considering the complicated rules of origin that come with agreements on textiles and garments.

US trade reports as of last November indicate that Malaysia is seeking early elimination of tariffs on textiles and garments, rubber and wood products, ceramics, electronics and agriculture. These categories of goods have tariffs of between 5% and 32%.
Broadly, both countries have also discussed phasing out tariffs on industrial and agricultural goods 鈥?some immediately and others over five, seven and 10 years. There is also a list of sensitive products that will carry an undefined phased-out time frame.
It is estimated that an agreement on market access for goods may cost Malaysia US$950 million (about RM3.4 billion) in tariffs over the period of the Ninth Malaysia Plan (9MP). Eliminating tariffs may benefit the US more since its tariffs are, on average, lower than Malaysia's.

The US is Malaysia's largest trading partner, with RM160.95 billion (US$44 billion) in two-way trade recorded in 2005. Malaysia is also netting a healthy and growing trade surplus with the US (2005: US$23.3 billion).
While manufacturers like Axis are still optimistic, those examples illustrate how tricky FTA negotiations can get. Developing countries especially, with their limited resources and data, are often at the losing end when dealing with their richer counterparts.
For an idea of how difficult the negotiating table looks, try this for size. Of the 23 issues or chapters that will be discussed in the US-Malaysia Free Trade Agreement (USMFTA) talks, Malaysia is represented by 11 ministries and departments. These ministries also consult with trade groups like the Federation of Malaysian Manufacturers and the Malaysian Textiles Manufacturers Association.

[ 本帖最后由 os 于 3-2-2007 12:47 AM 编辑 ]

os

下个礼拜，大马和美国佬的谈判将进入第五回合。看来是摊牌的时候了。。。:@ :@ :@  
根据历史惯例，很少国家可以逃离美国自身的利益魔掌
Axis 的大佬已经不耐烦，跑人了。。。

os

马美自贸协定洽谈 纺织商协会盼尽早获结论

●南洋商报  2007/02/06 11:20:30

（吉隆坡5日讯）马来西亚纺织制造商协会（MTMA）希望自由贸易协定（FTA）洽谈能尽早取得结论，以使纺织制造领域出口至美国，能取得0％进口税的优惠。

文告指出，大马及美国自由贸易协定这周在亚庇进行第五次的洽谈。纺织及衣服低赚幅产品，因此价格成为销售其产品的重要关键。

文告表示，上述洽谈主要是要求美国终止纺织制造产品进口税，目前，棉织品进口税为17％及综合性衣服产品进口税为32％。

kok1984

PE 如此低，当然债务也偏高。
前年高油价，结果亏钱。
如今油价走低，柬埔寨游客旺盛，政局稳定，有望好转。

你好像暗示要赌油价会起还是落,如果油价今年在破八十元的话,那么该公司的赢利可能无法达直预期水平

os

09-02-2007: Wildcat strikes threaten Cambodian garment sector
By Ek Madra
Email us your feedback at fd@bizedge.com


A growing number of wildcat strikes and politicised, unruly unions are threatening Cambodia's garment sector, an industry that accounts for 80% of the country's exports, its top representative said on Feb 9.

The government and International Labour Organisation (ILO) must step in to curb the "illegal practices" that are now happening more than three times a week, Van Sou Ieng of the Cambodian Garment Manufacturers Association said.

"It is a big threat not only to the garment industry, but also to the whole of Cambodia's industrial activities," said Van Sou Ieng, whose group represents 300 foreign-owned factories in the war-scarred southeast Asian nation.

"About 20 to 30 workers become unhappy and then block the doors to prevent 500 or 1,000 other workers getting in," he told Reuters. Most disputes relate to unpaid and low wages or unfair dismissal.

Cambodia exported clothes worth US$2.6 billion (RM9.08 billion) last year, a 17% rise from 2005. Nearly 75% of the clothes go to the United States, and the rest to Canada and Europe.

The sector employs more than 300,000 people, most of them women, and even though average wages are around US$50 a month, it has been credited as one of the few engines of growth in one of Asia's poorest countries.

However, the boom has been accompanied by an explosion in the number of labour unions, and more than 1,000 are thought to be operating in some form or another.

Van Sou Ien said the vast majority were vehicles for rabble-rousing politicians rather than legitimate unions.

In response, the ILO, which has been monitoring factory working conditions for years, has modified its role to training workers and management in the art of dispute resolution, although it concedes that much remains to be done.

"Striking is not the way to solve problems. It's a last resort," said assistant programme manager Conor Boyle. "If you can solve problems internally, within your factories, you come up with the much better solutions for all concerned."

Despite the problems, the writing is not yet on the wall as many big-name US brands such as Adidas, Nike or Gap continue to see Cambodia as a safe place from which to source goods due mainly to the ILO oversight.

Foreign investment quadrupled in 2006 from the previous year to nearly US$4 billion, with most of the increase due to the garment sector despite fears of increased competition stemming from Cambodia's 2004 accession to the World Trade Organisation.

However, Van Sou Ieng said in a highly competitive industry, no country could not afford to have labour disputes tarnish its image and ward off investors.

A year ago, neighbouring Vietnam responded to a series of wildcat strikes at dozens of foreign-owned factories in the southern commercial hub, Ho Chi Minh City, with a 40% hike in the minimum wage to between US$45-US$55 a month. -- Reuters

x x x

油价只是其中一个成本，以上的似乎比较严重。。。
不懂大马发生过类似的时件吗？
不过比起印支国家，大马的蓝领待遇好多了。。。

Techno_Gizmo

看了 HPI 第三季度报告。嗯！还不错！盈利增加了，债务改善了，现金流还好。

看来开翻机会挺浓。喜欢低PE的，可以考虑考虑。

os

原帖由 Techno_Gizmo 于 12-4-2007 07:04 AM 发表
看了 HPI 第三季度报告。嗯！还不错！盈利增加了，债务改善了，现金流还好。

看来开翻机会挺浓。喜欢低PE的，可以考虑考虑。

这只股实在够冷，各大报章几乎找不到她的踪影。
基本上，他的 Balance Sheet 和 Cash Flow 和上几季比较，都变化不大，还是老样子。不过如果和几年前相比，就好很多了。
其中保持的好现象是 earning 依然，所以 retain earning 也逐步增加了。
如果下季再拿下三百多万的话，PE 就真的在 2 以下了（股价八毛多时）。
承你贵言，分分钟给你在 PE 5.x 开翻。
HPICL 的主要表现和柬埔寨的经济息息相关，各中纸箱及塑胶包装相信大部分也是供给成衣业，自己的 PCCS 等。
柬国两个礼拜前的选举，反应较为冷淡，也许是对洪森没意见，也许忙赚钱，没空去投。。。
看看 GFB 可以在越南搞到上市，不知柬埔寨在若干年后，可否接棒成为新兴市场，让 hpi pccs 当当配角。。。
哈，发梦发到太远了。。。

Focus

PE 如此低，当然债务也偏高。

pe低，债务就高吗？

os

原帖由 Focus 于 14-4-2007 12:38 AM 发表

pe低，债务就高吗？

嗯，通常罗，不过，
债务高未必 PE 就低，例如名牌亚航，Litrak，YTL, 甚至 TopGlov 等。
因为他们都有特定的优势及成长潜能，所以就享有名牌的 PE。

低 PE 的股却通常都是高债务的，例如　Megan, HPI, LCL,之前的 Bonia, Ekson 等，
不然就是业务太过冷门二线，或类似给人一种夕阳无限好的感觉的股， PE 都会相当低。。。
我想，这也是其中一个买进底 PE 股所要承担的风险罗　

8years

原帖由 os 于 14-4-2007 12:54 AM 发表

嗯，通常罗，不过，
债务高未必 PE 就低，例如名牌亚航，Litrak，YTL, 甚至 TopGlov 等。
因为他们都有特定的优势及成长潜能，所以就享有名牌的 PE。

低 PE 的股却通常都是高债务的，例如　Megan, HPI,  ...

lcl并不是高债务，我和ijm比较过，都差不多。

os

原帖由 8years 于 14-4-2007 01:11 AM 发表
lcl并不是高债务，我和ijm比较过，都差不多。

我觉得还好罗，如果不要跟现金王 tongher, dlady, apollo, acostec, pos, engkah 等比较的话。

作建筑相关的都是要先出材料，钱有排收。尤其接到大工程，更是需要一定的 finance facilities，bond 等等来 support 大 project。
ijm 和 gamuda 债务算不错了，wct 的还要稍微高呢。

8years

原帖由 os 于 14-4-2007 01:32 AM 发表

我觉得还好罗，如果不要跟现金王 tongher, dlady, apollo, acostec, pos, engkah 等比较的话。

作建筑相关的都是要先出材料，钱有排收。尤其接到大工程，更是需要一定的 finance facili ...

行业standard是这样，没办法啦。和现金王比当然没的比。

Techno_Gizmo

HPI 的成交量已經放大，上升趨勢已形成。

相信即將在兩個星期后公布的第4季財報應該不會令人失望吧！

[ 本帖最后由 Techno_Gizmo 于 2-7-2007 11:35 PM 编辑 ]

os

原帖由 Techno_Gizmo 于 2-7-2007 11:32 PM 发表
HPI 的成交量已經放大，上升趨勢已形成。

相信即將在兩個星期后公布的第4季財報應該不會令人失望吧！

嗯,最近有在南洋经济周刊看到分析报导，没有什么特别发展。一些老板也在卖。等业绩罗。

x x x

PCCS - 夕阳工业可否东山再起

最近公司的一个经理级人马介绍了 Al Gore 的环保 片。。。
说要在公司搞环保，搞到老板脸青青。。。
再 update PCCS 的业绩，吓了一跳，因为 global warming effect，亏了六百多万。。。

os

金峰在大马经济模式转变后，变成夕阳股，只好走到越南。
越南现在快速起飞，强劲成长，若干年后，就会赶上大马 (如果大马原地踏步)。
那么，越南过后，何去何从？
非洲吗？还是重回大马？
Penhill Projects 后，希望陆续有来，别浪费了北马走廊的造势运动。

Techno_Gizmo

第四季度的財報有點令人失望。

總的來說全年盈利比去年增長了33百分比， 從每股盈利19.9增至26.39， 每股凈值=2.03

以今天收市價 RM1.23， 本益比=4.67。 資產負債表沒多大的進步。 必須留意的，長期債務里的3千多萬已轉至短期債務。

不過，他們將再度融資3千萬以解決將在11月到期的貸款。基本上沒多大的改變。

如有錯， 請更正。