新危机--政府拯救股市计划.

白狐狸

还有mark to cost的选择嘛。。

hoollly

http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/F?c110:1:./temp/~c110vAcGee:e3526:


SEC. 132. AUTHORITY TO SUSPEND MARK-TO-MARKET ACCOUNTING.

(a) Authority- The Securities and Exchange Commissionshall have the authority under the securities laws (as such term isdefined in section 3(a)(47) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (15U.S.C. 78c(a)(47)) to suspend, by rule, regulation, or order, theapplication of Statement Number 157 of the Financial AccountingStandards Board for any issuer (as such term is defined in section3(a)(8) of such Act) or with respect to any class or category oftransaction if the Commission determines that is necessary orappropriate in the public interest and is consistent with theprotection of investors.

8years

其实我正在等待着：“SEC suspend掉mark to market accounting”

不过据我所知目前还没有宣布实行，所以我才请问是不是我遗漏了没有看到。这是非常重要的改变，如果一但sec宣布放弃mark to market，那么我的方针将必需改变。

hoollly

可能很多人会觉得奇怪,
为什么JP Morgan Chase在吸收了Bear Stern, Washington Mutual后,可以defy gravity,还可以抱出小额利润?
为什么Bank of America,亏损18亿美元,但是需要美国政府200亿美元的注资?
为什么Barclays还说我们的2008利润会beat the estimate,但是业绩公布前几天依然狂泻,象征市场里面有人知道其财务状况非常糟糕.
为什么在违约不断发生的时候,之前首先中箭的ambac和mbia可以维持不倒闭,甚至某一季还抱出利润呢?

是不是代表金融业起死回生了?当然不是,如果是,就不用不断拿大笔政府"援助资金"

原因在于7000亿救市方案里面的一个条款, 这个条款是说银行不再需要把资产mark to market,只需要mark to model就行了.

鉴于market可以卖多少钱,是市场订的,但是model怎么设计就完全可以由银行自己决定了.

这形成了,不管银行财务状况有多么烂,就算第二天就被接管掉,或者宣布破产保护掉,他的balance sheet,甚至是income statement都可以是美美的.(这个例子之前是非常多的.)

并不是说财务报告已经完全失去用途,不过如果要用财务报告来判断那家银行损失有多少的话,财务报告已经没有意义,已经irrelevant.

所以说,现在的美国银行,可以更加彻底地操纵财务数据,他们制造的亏损,并不是他们真正的亏损,在这时候.

赢利,不过是说明美国银行业还可以喘一口气,缓和人心.
亏损,也只不过是说明政府注资,削减股本是合理的.

很多人错误以为,只要政府注资,股票就会回升,其实不是.
正是因为政府注资,股票才暴跌,让我们来看一看近来影响Citigroup和Bank of America的谣言.

http://www.thestockmasters.com/BAC-NYSE-C-01162009.HTML

就好象我以前写过的那样,

降息刺激股市下滑,救市瓦解经济市场.

"救市计划"的终极目的就是彻底摧毁残剩一丝自由的资本主义市场.

[ 本帖最后由 hoollly 于 17-1-2009 06:47 PM 编辑 ]

hoollly

British banks are 'technically insolvent'
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/british-banks-are-technically-insolvent-1418229.html

Britains biggest banks are "technically insolvent", Royal Bank ofScotland said yesterday, as the global banking industry was rocked byanother day of turmoil, including the announcement of $23bn (£16bn) ofnew losses from Merrill Lynch and Citigroup, the giant US institutions.
                                Analysts working for RBS, one of several British banks to have received   emergency funding from the UK Government last year, told the City that "the   domestic UK banks are technically insolvent on a fully marked-to-market basis".
The warning does not mean British banks are about to go bust, because the   assessment is purely theoretical, and RBS said the position was "not   unusual at this stage in the economic cycle".
However, it will add to pressure on the Government to provide more support for   the country's banks. Treasury officials are now set to spend this weekend in   talks about a fresh round of measures, which could be unveiled as early as   next week, to free up lending to households and major corporations hit by   the credit crunch.
The value of Barclays fell by a quarter in stock market trading yesterday,   amid a series of wild rumours about its finances, although the bank said it   saw no need to comment on the drop. Its board said in a statement last night   that it knew "no justification for the fall".
The statement said next month the bank expected to report that profits before   tax for 2008 were "well ahead" of the £5.3 billion forecast by   analysts.
City analysts said the bank had been targeted by traders after regulators   lifted a ban yesterday on the short selling of financial stocks. Barclays'   share price, along with the value of other British banks, was also hit by   dismal news from the international markets, including the announcement on   Thursday night that the Irish government was nationalising Allied Irish   Banks. In the US, Bank of America announced yesterday that it was taking a   $20bn injection of emergency funding from the US government, subsequently   revealing that Merrill Lynch, the investment bank it rescued last year, had   lost more than £15bn in the final three months of last year.
Citigroup, once the world's largest bank, announced more than $8bn of losses   for the final quarter of last year, and revealed plans to split itself in   two.
Treasury officials were still discussing plans to help British banks last   night but the proposals are likely to include up to £100bn of new guarantees   for the wholesale markets that underpin mortgage and other loans.
Other possible measures being considered include state support to help   Britain's largest companies raise their own funds. Another option is to   launch a "bad bank" to remove tainted assets from the banks'   balance sheets, though while this policy is under consideration, it is   thought to remain some way off.
Other proposals include ring-fencing the toxic assets within bank balance   sheets. Lord Mandelson, the Business Secretary, has also talked of easing   the terms of the Government's £37bn bank bailout in order to kickstart   lending. Downing Street made it clear yesterday that the Government remained   committed to doing "whatever is necessary to help British businesses   and families get through this global financial recession".

hoollly

"Deutsche Bank AG, helped by a change in the way European banks book souring assets, posted a profit in the third quarter even as in-house trading bets in the stock and credit markets led to third-quarter losses totaling Euro 1.3 billion ($1.68 billion). ... A change this month by European accounting policy makers allowed banks to move souring loans to their hold-to-maturity books, limiting write-downs that would have resulted from valuing the assets at market prices", Carrick Mollenkamp at the WSJ, 31 October 2008.

8years

想借问那里可以看到

“7000亿救市方案里面的一个条款, 这个条款是说银行不再需要把资产mark to market,只需要mark to model就行了.”

这和我看到的有一些不太一样。

hoollly

原帖由 8years 于 17-1-2009 07:04 PM 发表
想借问那里可以看到

“7000亿救市方案里面的一个条款, 这个条款是说银行不再需要把资产mark to market,只需要mark to model就行了.”

这和我看到的有一些不太一样。

这就是为什么我经常强调,做人要多多研究历史的原因.

通常马来西亚人的历史记忆不会超过半年.

http://www.mondaq.com/article.asp?articleid=67468
United States: Highlights Of The Emergency Economic Stabilization Act

....
Suspension of Mark-to-Market AccountingThe Act authorizes the Securities and Exchange Commission tosuspend the requirement of mark-to-market accounting (FASB No. 157)either for any individual issuer or for an entire class or categoryof transactions if the SEC determines that suspension is necessaryor appropriate in the public interest and is consistent with theprotection of investors.
....

cct2048

美政府不拯救股市的话
难道任由股指直坠谷底
等一发不可收拾
人民暴动才出手 ？


其实美国就是干预介入得太迟
才会酿成这次巨大的金融海啸




[ 本帖最后由 cct2048 于 17-1-2009 07:52 PM 编辑 ]

hoollly

基本上,美国一些资本家对共产主义更有兴趣,因为在共产主义制度下,他们的权力和财富更有保障.

hoollly

经济危机要如何解决,只有咨询那些成功预测到经济危机的人意见才有用.

现在经济危机之所以越演越烈,其中一个重要原因就是因为目前"拯救","干预市场"的政治家,金融家们,没有一个在经济危机明朗化之前判断出这个经济危机.

一个连诊断都错误的医生,凭什么信任他能够医治好他诊断错误的病人?

8years

“if the SEC determines that suspension is necessary or appropriate”

暂时还没有看到sec 有讲要mark to model啊，是我漏了吗？

Genghiss

回教党胜选多数票过两千
华人选民一面倒向国阵！

【本刊记者撰述】虽然在今天瓜拉登嘉楼国会议席补选的计票初始阶段，国阵（巫统）候选人旺阿末法立一度领先回教党候选人阿都瓦希，但后劲不足，至晚上8时30分左右，非正式补选结果确定回教党赢得瓜拉登嘉楼国会议席，而截至晚上九时的开票结果也显示，阿都瓦希以2059张多数票领先旺阿末法立。

截至晚上九时，在计票中心开出的135个票箱中，回教党得票2万8789张、国阵得票3万848张、独立人士阿查鲁丁得票184张；回教党已以2059票遥遥领先国阵。



截至晚上8时20分，瓜拉登嘉楼国会议席补选已开出的85个票箱中，回教党候选人阿都瓦希（左图）得票1万8532张，比国阵候选人旺阿末法立的1万8364张得票多出168张；独立候选人阿查鲁丁仅得119张票。

在今晚八时正，国阵（巫统）候选人旺阿末法立虽还是暂时以196张多数票领先回教党候选人阿都瓦希；不过，国阵消息来源却说，国阵已经输掉了这场补选。



根据选举委员会截至晚上八时的计票结果，旺阿末法立暂时以1万5385张得票领先回教党候选人阿都瓦希，后者的得票是1万5189张，国阵以196张多数票暂时领先，而独立人士阿查鲁丁仅得92张票。



不过，不愿具名的国阵消息来源当时告诉《独立新闻在线》，国阵确定败选了。



另一方面，回教党总部截至晚上8时10分的消息说，该党候选人得票 2万3640张，国阵（巫统）候选人仅得2万1614张，因此回教党以2026张多数票领先。



华人票倒向国阵



虽然竞选期间的民意看来，华人区反风盛吹、在野党占尽上风。可是正式成绩显示，华人票一面倒倾向国阵。



华人超过40%的万达区唐人街和市政厅，每个票箱都由国阵胜出，在万达区（Bandar）州议席里的五个唐人街（Kampung Cina）票箱中，国阵得票1125、回教党668票，独立人士5票，废票17张。



万达区州选区下的市政厅（Pejabat Bandaran）的四个票箱，国阵得票843、回教党得票681、独立人士得票7张、废票22张。



今天的瓜拉登嘉楼国会议席补选，投票率是79.73%，比去年3月8日全国大选时同个选区的投票率（82.45％）低了2.72%。

瓜登补选在今天下午五时截至，马来西亚选举委员会傍晚公布非正式的投票率，今天前往投票的选民人数有6万3967人。

Genghiss

国阵政府输了补选，接下来会不会更努力救市呢。。。？？？
如果人民大量失业又或者再没表现，下届大选他们可以打包了。

goodluck88

已经证实PAS胜了，多数票2631张。。。

Wynnes

应该会更努力挖钱才对。。。 因为下次没机会了

cct2048

买 UEM 系股票的朋友  小心 ！

stanleymyc

你没有看漏，是楼主看得太远了。。

chopnel

原帖由 cct2048 于 17-1-2009 10:14 PM 发表
买 UEM 系股票的朋友  小心 ！

会不会再炒多一轮筹集经费，等娜姬上台后宣布闪电大选？

hoollly

原帖由 8years 于 17-1-2009 08:40 PM 发表
“if the SEC determines that suspension is necessary or appropriate”

暂时还没有看到sec 有讲要mark to model啊，是我漏了吗？

其实,你知不知道这里的model是什么意思?

不是模特儿那个model.

Mark-to-model vs. mark-to-market
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_GZqhAR0I4

如果你觉得mark-to-model这词不恰当的话,可以改成mark-to-myth.