美国非投资级债券卖不出,和短期国债利息接近0

hoollly

Junk-Bond Market Has Closed the Door
Yields Upward of 20% Make It Too Pricey for Borrowers; Zero Deals Made It in November
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122787886488263965.html?mod=testMod

U.S. companies were locked out of the junk-bond market in November, putting half of American corporations at risk of being unable to raise cash.

The current environment is causing market participants to harken back to 1991, when the collapse of Drexel Burnham Lambert sent the junk, or high-yield, bond market into a tailspin.

About 50% of U.S. companies have below-investment-grade credit ratings, making the $750 billion junk-bond market a vital source of financing for car makers, airlines, retailers, utilities, restaurant chains and media companies. The shutdown already has sent U.S. car makers, desperate for cash, to Washington for emergency loans.

美国有50%上市公司不属于投资级别,所以他们现在集不到资,1分钱都集中不到.
照这个理论,明年会有50%的美国上市公司申请破产保护.

而短期国债的利息接近0,而长期国债则是3.5%

在这个角度来说,市场已经集体认为美国长期国债风险太大.
而,之前又有2.3兆美元国债被卖空,无法如期交割.
现在整个美国国债的settlement市场都出现问题.
因为,虽然投资国债是0%风险,因为政府总可以印钞票出来还债.(除了通货膨胀,货币贬值风险.)
但是由于买卖国债,是要经过券商的,自从lehman brothers破产后,现在的市场对券商没有信心.

还有一个风险在于,好象GM这样,虽然在市场上集中不到资金,但是如果美国给他们资金,就等于国家承担了这个风险.它不是弄到GM的债券高级化,而是GM把美国国债弄到低级化.

你可以想象,明年50%美国上市企业进入不同形式的破产保护为市场带来的冲击么?>

唉...............

jenefer

1.) 短期国债的利息接近0,而长期国债则是3.5%,这个角度来说,市场已经集体认为美国长期国债风险太大 (這么小的利差怎样對應到風險?)

2.) 之前又有2.3兆美元国债被卖空,无法如期交割 (債卷賣空是什么意思?)

3.) 要经过券商的,自从lehman brothers破产后,现在的市场对券商没有信心
   (是說投資債卷要卷商,如卷商倒閉,買的債卷就廢紙?)

小妹不是商科出身,您寫的都想看懂,可是水準低,希望您能稍稍白話解釋下下..

hoollly

债券被卖空在这里,是属于naked short selling,叫做无借票买空,是种连借票利息都省回的方法.

通常机构买美国国债,都通过券商买,由券商托管,但是如果券商盗用的话,那么托管也没有用,券商一倒闭,托管财产依然被冻结.
而托管还要交托管费,真是得不偿失.
很难形容,不过目前美国债券市场出现settlement不顺畅的问题,本来的交易次序面临严峻挑战.