从一个黄金两个价格谈计划经济崩溃.

hoollly

计划经济的特色是,
他们管制商品价格.
以他们管制的价格,是觉得买不到那个商品的.商品以远高于管制价在市场上交易.

先看这个新闻:
Why Gold Is Down, But You Can't Get Your Hands on Any
http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/commodities/gold-hands/

黄金价格现在就是酱,大部分并非在市场里面的人,都错误以为黄金价格目前是740美元.(庆幸的,在马来西亚,用740美元,也绝对买得到.)
但是在美国,欧洲等地方,用740美元加3%溢价,是绝对买不到,不但买不到,而且以高出20%的溢价,还需要等几个星期才拿到黄金产品.

目前在comex的12月黄金期货,已经有一大堆人排队交割.自从上次白银由于运输问题,导致白银无法如期交割,出现default.和在几个星期后才交割,顺便赔penalty之后,贵金属市场再度出现大紧张.

这标志着什么?
同一个时候,世界各主要经济强国在开会,商讨新的货币制度.
根据传统来说,新的货币制度必须要有一个前提作为成功的实施,那就是货币大贬值,联合贬值.

而货币大贬值,一定造成商品,股票和债券市场的大震动.
政府们为了组织这个震动,必然会对全部市场进行冻结交易.(就好象意大利总理说的那样.)
http://cforum2.cari.com.my/viewthread.php?tid=1370771&highlight=

而这个最大的打击,不是世界各地市场以后会在重新开市后大跌,问题在于,在目前这个资金紧张的市场里面,关闭市场会造成我们下层严重货币紧缩,通货紧缩,而同时由于不会停的政府注资,上层货币大膨胀,造成财富严重两极化.

目前,我们中下层人民的流动性已经紧张,再加一个关闭市场,也就是名义价值(book value)和可交换价值(fair market value)背离,中下层人民面临流动性干枯的危机.

股市跌90%不是目前最迫切的危机,市场关闭才是最迫切的危机.

密码侦探

大哥,你可以把全部贴ALL IN ONE吗?

ZeroYap

好贴，我顶！！！ 大家快点来读一读！！！

ZeroYap

Hoollly 兄，这些新的美国金币，是什么意思？？ 他们是不是要把以下的毁掉？？

by hoollly
这个货币制度设计弄人破产用的.在一个论坛里,两班人(如果不是几班人的话)在互相批评对方的见解不正确.

主楼的想法是:
利息制度不合理的地方,就好象一个ford车一样.
你借来的本金就是一个ford车,而你还的利息,就必须是ford车的10%部分.
你不能拿Toyota或者BMW的10%甚至100%去还ford这10%的零件.
永远记住,只有ford厂才能出产那个规格的东西.
就算其余厂,如benz, bentley比它好,也不能替代ford的这10%零件.

因为法律规定:
THIS NOTE IS LEGAL TENDER FOR ALL DEBTS, PUBLIC AND PRIVATE.



如果一个人欠了美元的钱,他绝对不能用日圆去还!
而且美国公司不能在本土,用金币去交税,不能用银币去出粮!(犯法的.)


好了.
很多有识之士都知道,
1块钱钞票可以产生10块钱货币.

那么终极角度来说,这10块钱的货币,每年都需要1块钱的利息.

这1块钱的利息就已经等于了钞票总量!

在这种情况下,如果中央银行停止印刷钞票,或者更致命的,商业银行停止借贷,造钱活动就停止.
一旦造钱行动停止,这9块钱的债务人,要去哪里找新钱出来支付他们的利息呢?
(就好象ford车的比喻那样,就算他要卖身.(明显有使用价值)去还,都不可以,如果他要拿BMW去还,也不可以.或者有些外国车主开始理解为什么他们有价值的东西都套不到现的原因!!)


结论是:肯定会有一小部分人必须破产,而一小部分人的破产,会连带大部分人的破产.


一个股票市场,如果它要有那样的成交额,它就必须有那么大的货币供应.
如果整个马来西亚只有1块钱货币供应,马股是不能每天交易总值100块的.

现在的现象是,各国中央银行加大印钱给大型商业银行,但是商业银行就缩小借贷.
变成,印出来的钱,都全部挤去大型商业银行那边,直接加剧了贫富差距.

对于目前被国际银行家们紧缩我们中下层货币的现象看来,股票就算跌到成本价,也不是底,更何况现在还没有集体碰到成本价.

hoollly

来看一看网上最著名的黄金零售商的店:
https://online.kitco.com/bullion/

金币卖断市.
Please note: Due to current conditions, your order fulfillment and/or shipment is being affected by delays experienced by our suppliers. Certain popular products are currently out of stock; please click here to view a list of items we normally carry. All such products will once again appear on our web page when their inventories reach adequate levels. Due to high order volumes, you may also experience shipment delays from our vaults in Canada and/or the USA. We want to assure you that we are working hard to mitigate this temporary situation. Kitco Inc. appreciates your patience and understanding, and looks forward to serving you in the best possible manner.

再看一看有现货的Apmex(它在短缺前大量囤货,现在一些东西还是有现货,不过价格是本来的10%或者以上.)
http://www.apmex.com/Category/290/Gold_Eagles___1_oz_2008__Prior.aspx

现在来看一看美国政府机构,US Mint的卖价.
http://catalog.usmint.gov/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/ProductDisplay?catalogId=10001&storeId=10001&productId=14450&langId=-1&parent_category_rn=13238

在Comex黄金市场价格是815美元的时候,他就卖975美元.(注意这两个都是official site)

而澳州的perth mint呢,就24/7,三班制生产金币,不过还是无法满足需求量.


我们现在知道流动性的重要了.
Paper gold有流动性,所以价格低,但是physical gold没有流动性,所以价格贵.
未来日子,paper gold和physical gold的spread只会越来越大.直到paper gold市场瓦解为止.

很多东西,虽然记录着是有这样的价值,但是套现就未必有.
比如股票,记录是这么大价格,卖时候就不值这么多钱了.
而实物黄金呢,记录的是这个价钱,但是卖的时候就值钱多了.

hoollly

Worried Investors Want Gold on Hand

The global recession and worries about the stability of the financial system have sent the price of gold to $1,000 an ounce. But more surprising is that buyers are taking the unusual and expensive step of taking possession of it.

"We're having some of our strongest months ever," said Scott Thomas, president and chief executive of American Precious Metals Exchange, a precious-metals dealer in Edmond, Okla. "The bottom line is our numbers are probably double what they were last year, and last year was very
busy."

Bob Coleman, who runs a bullion fund out of Nampa, Idaho, has taken multiple deliveries of gold and silver since last fall for his clients. The fund, Dollars and Sense Growth Fund, primarily invests in precious metals for high-net-worth individuals.

"It's more of a trust issue," says Mr. Coleman. "Given all the turmoil in the market, people prefer to have access to the metal." Sales of American Eagle gold bullion coins at the U.S. Mint in Philadelphia more than doubled in the first two months of this year.

Investors are also flocking to gold coins. At the U.S. Mint, a total of 147,500 ounces of American Eagle gold bullion coins were sold in the first two months this year, a surge of 176% from the same period last year.

Demand is rising at the Comex, the metals division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, where investors increasingly are choosing to take physical delivery of gold, rather than cash, once their futures contacts expire.

Rising delivery orders have kept Brink's Inc., a major carrier for the Comex, busy. The Richmond, Va., company said it saw a large spike in clients shipping gold and silver from the exchange over the past few months.

Tony Klancic, an account executive at Lind-Waldock, a Chicago commodities brokerage, says he has been taking calls since September from individual investors wanting to buy physical gold.
These are "real people in rural America with money under the mattress, and wealthy individuals coming to the futures market strictly intending to take delivery," Mr. Klancic said.

In December, 4.5% of gold contracts ended in delivery, compared with 3.4% a year earlier, according to the exchange. Investors also are taking delivery of silver, with contracts ending in delivery rising to 7.3% from 4.7%. December is typically a big month for deliveries, and in
January, deliveries remained higher than the year before.

Jewelers and other users of metals are among the buyers who take possession of gold and silver. But with sales of jewelry down and other industrial users cutting back, it appears that investors are causing the increase.

Gold deliveries peaked at more than 8% in the early 1980s, when Mexico defaulted on its foreign debt and the world economy was in recession. Deliveries dropped and have gradually fallen back to the range of 2% in recent years.

Gold pierced the $1,000 level last Friday, the first time since March 2008. On Tuesday, the February contract closed at $969.10 per troy ounce. So far this year, the precious metal is up 9.7%.

Taking physical delivery of gold can be costly and complicated.

Investors typically buy gold on exchanges using futures contracts. Since each contract represents 100 ounces of gold, an investor would have to pay $96,910 per contract, based on Tuesday's close, in order to take delivery. By contrast, investors need to put down only $3,999 up front to trade such a futures contract.

"It is an expensive proposition," says Jeff Christian, managing director at CPM Group, a New York precious-metal research firm.

Also, the logistics of buying a big lump of metal might be daunting for smaller players. Investors who decide to take delivery of gold contracts face high storage and insurance costs. And if buyers actually want the gold or other precious metals in their possession, they must
arrange for delivery by armored truck. In a recent delivery of 100,000 ounces of silver, Mr. Coleman paid $3,000 to transport the metal from New York to Idaho.

By CAROLYN CUI and ALLEN SYKORA

Write to Carolyn Cui at carolyn.cui@wsj.com
Printed in The Wall Street Journal, page A3
---------------------------------
Carolyn Cui Money & Investing The Wall Street Journal. Work: 212-416-3078 Mobile: 646-593-1152 Email: carolyn.cui@wsj.com

© 2009 Copyright Carolyn Cui - All Rights Reserved

欧贝亚

有那么多的黄金来交易吗？看来再多几个月真的要关闭市场了。

This past Friday, Nov. 28, 2008, was first notice day for delivery of the December COMEX [a division of NYMEX] gold and silver futures contracts which trade on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The chart appended below shows that on Friday, 8,600 gold futures contracts @ 100 ounces per contract [and 3,040 silver futures contracts @ 5,000 ounces per contract] were delivered. To try to give some perspective to these numbers the previous delivery month for gold futures was October, 2008 when there were 11,554 deliveries for the entire month – a “big” number by historical standards.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/kirby/2008/1201.html

hoollly

原帖由 欧贝亚 于 2-12-2008 05:59 PM 发表
有那么多的黄金来交易吗？看来再多几个月真的要关闭市场了。

This past Friday, Nov. 28, 2008, was first notice day for delivery of the December COMEX [a division of NYMEX] gold and silver futures contr ...

这也是我觉得奇怪的事情和我目前关注的事情.
12月的交割是往常的几十倍.
过去的日子,一天只有双位数,或者3位数的交割,这次特别多.

换句话说,庄家必须从世界各地的货仓调黄金过来应急,不然comex的黄金市场,几天里面就必须关门.
实际上,我认为他们是调到的,只是未来可能调不即.
结果黄金卖空者被罚款,可能每合约罚款300美元,这前几年在nickel市场发生过.

我在这个市场很久了,庄家经常都不缺乏给我和我的同僚"震撼",这次就看他们要怎么出招吧.

hoollly

在E-Bay那里, american gold eagle目前以19%的spread交易.
http://www.24hgold.com/english/buy_sell_gold_coins.aspx?co_id=0

Spread是近来流行的词语,也是未来的重点词语,我建议有兴趣的人积极学习,搞明白cds spread, interest spread, price spread等东西.

这其实标志的是计划经济的失败和崩溃.

因为未来日子里面,不只是黄金,即使是福利计划,还是什么的,都属于价钱/条件讲明是这个,但是实际就无法获得.

即使是失业率,即使是说明是10%,不过市场上怎么看都像是25%,这15%就是spread.

苏联解体前,官方经济数字其实都是很稳定的,面包价格也是很稳定的,根据cpi数据,苏联的通货膨胀绝对在受控制范围,甚至到了需要fight deflation的地步.(就好象今天FED讲法那样.)
不过以苏联统计局的价钱,是绝对不可能买到面包的.

hoollly

乌克兰人没有命水,不然我之前就会降生在那里,然后用乌克兰语告诉他们,你们的流动性有因为市场关闭而枯竭的风险~~~

Ukraine risks unrest as ills worsen

By Stefan Wagstyl and Roman Olearchyk

Published: March 2 2009 19:16 | Last updated: March 2 2009 19:16

Olexander Pavlenko, a young computer programmer, is one of tens of thousands of Ukrainians who cannot get their money out of the bank.

He stood in line in Kiev at Nadra Bank and Ukrprombank, two big troubled banks, planning to withdraw more than $10,000 (

hoollly

现在U.S Mint的gold eagle和silver eagle是在短缺中,已经停产.
而同期台湾和印度的黄金供应则是过剩的.

为什么U.S Mint不从台湾和印度那里买金回来,然后铸成金币卖回给市场呢?

自从U.S Mint中断所有collectible coin的生产后,现在连通用币gold eagle也停产,唯一剩下的就只是Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coin,售价1289美元.(而这时候相应的comex gold price是930美元.38%的premium,和以前的几块钱真是差天差地.)

http://catalog.usmint.gov/webapp ... amp;identifier=1000


这就是计划经济崩溃中的特征.
在物价总体向上的过程中,各地的价格差异扩大,供求出现不一致的状况.但是,却没有足够的人进行套利,结果形成巨大的套利空间.
*一种值得关注的价格现象.以目前全球化的背景下来看,这不仅仅象征黄金市场的现象.